Okay, the title may well explain it all, but here goes: What is the point of all these mock drafts? I've been seeing more and more of these in recent years and to me they seem like mental masturbation. Do they have ANY predictive value? Has anyone got a track record worth a damn? Or are these guys just playing fantasy football and making money doing it? Cuz if they are then I want to play as well... and get paid.
I've wondered about the success rate of these mocks past the top 10-15 rounds myself. Did you mean to put this in the draft forum?
Oops, I didn't even think about that. I thought I put it in the general NFL forum, but perhaps the draft forum makes more sense. Abyzmul, what is your user pic? It looks like it is from a familiar TV show or something but I can't place it and it is driving me nuts.
Aha! Thanks, that was gonna bother me all day (I'm anal like that...). I've only seen small bits of that show but it seems good. I'll have to give it a go.... TYVM So now that I've derailed my own thread... anyone have any idea about the predictive value of these mental masturba.... errr.... mock drafts?
Just on a casual search, I found this: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/scoring/mockdrafts.shtml It looks like they only grade mocks for the first round, and probably only the final mock leading up to the draft, so everything before that is thrown out the window. They give a point for every player correctly predicted in the first round an two points if they matched the player to the correct team. Grading goes back to 2009 on this particular page.
Lol they only have predictive value if intelligent well informed people actually do them. Most who do them have neither of those qualities.
I use the mock drafts to look into players that are supposedly have a chance to be drafted by my team. Though they never take the players they are picked to take by these "experts." I don't think anyone puts much stock in any of this. Back when the draft was done properly on Saturday-Sunday, a couple of friends and I would put together mock drafts the day of the draft. We'd watch the draft at the local sports bar and correct guesses resulted in free drinks.... I don't put any stock in mock drafts,but they really don't bother me either.
Actually, I think too many people use mock drafts in retrospect to bash the draft picks that their teams select. I have way too often seen people say things like "Most mocks had Player-X in the second and third rounds, nobody had him going in the first" when they have no idea what the other 31 teams in the NFL thought about that player, just what a bunch of football geeks thought based on team visits, combine numbers and highlight videos. That's kind of why I like this thread, actually, it puts a spotlight on exactly what worth these mocks really deserve,
I agree. It pisses me off when fans rip their team's draft because the player the "experts" thought they should pick wasn't the choice taken, or someone is taken "too early" Just because Mel Kiper thinks a player wouldn't be taken until later or would be available the next round doesn't make it true. I'm sure teams have a pulse on what other teams are looking for. That's why teams jump up each round to get the guy they target. What I really hate is that they keep making us wait later and later for the draft which gives the "experts" time to redo their mocks 10 times!
Lol, I've been arguing with some child in another thread exactly this point. "Blahblahblah everyone had player "x" rated a first rounder but we got him in the second--what a STEAL!!!" Yeah, he was rated a first rounder by a bunch of geeks, bloggers, guys pumping magazines and Internet draft nerds. Nobody has any idea what any real NFL team had player "x" graded as, but if he didn't go until midway in the second, pretty good bet he wasn't a first rounder. _
Yeah, the pushing back of draft day is annoying, but it gives teams more time to look at more prospects, more game film, refine their board better, and I think it may (hopefully) end up with teams selecting draft picks more accurately - hence putting a better product on the field nearly across the board. Well, hopefully for everybody but the Pats, at least.
Exactly, but you'll still get gullible fans buying into all of that none sense screaming "what a steal we got" or "what a reach that was" because some Internet draft guru said so. Or read it somewhere and re-repeated it. _
Actually, heard an interesting report a few weeks back that the reason for pushing the draft back is another ploy for the NFL to make it's seasonal programming as close to 12 months of the year as possible. They had nothing going on in May so they pushed the draft back a few weeks to give free agency more of a shot to be it's own story in March and April, and had more of a buildup through the end of April and give enough of a lead time to really highlight the Draft in May. With the draft in April, you really had no NFL until camps start at the end of July, which is a big stretch, hence the reason to move it back a calendar month. Combine in February, Free Agency in March and April, Pro Days and visits in March and April, Draft in May gets us almost to summer. _
Yeah, I read the same thing, and I believe it. I'm only saying that a possible pleasant side effect of the extended time until the draft does give teams more time to scout.
It's called the "Blind Squirrel Syndrome" for the satisfaction the few may receive if they correctly identify a player drafted by their favorite team, even if it occurs two rounds past the predicted spot.
Mock drafts have a purpose. If you aren't an avid follower of college football it gives you an idea of who others think are the good players in the draft. Once you have the list you can go look them up yourselves and then make your own opinions.
