2016 Presidential Race

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by NotSatoshiNakamoto, Sep 6, 2016.

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  1. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    I don't know what to think anymore.

    So where's the poll where they have +9 Rs
     
  2. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    The extra Democrats aren't the reason the ABC News poll gives Hillary a bigger lead, if that's what you're thinking. The extra Democrats are part of the raw sample, which is then weighted to match the actual ratio of Democrats to Republicans. If you'd read the detailed methodology, you'd have seen this paragraph:

    The data then are weighted using demographic information from the U.S. Census and NHIS to adjust for variance from population values. Weights may include average partisan self-identification in current and recent ABC/Post data, based on a standardized rule.
     
  3. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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  4. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    It may. May not. But it may.

    Let's see who shows up on the 8th.
     
  5. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    The answer is 100% no. What happens on Election Day is a different story. But the claim that the sampling proportion of that poll influences the poll's results is unequivocally wrong.
     
  6. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    obviously know more about this shit than me.
     
  7. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    The description is generic; that is it's for all the polls they do, not just this one. They used the word "may" because they won't weight for political party in a particular poll if the sample is representative of the country's demographics, which is their "standardized rule." In this case, the sample is not representative, so they'll weight. Despite that, the poll says Hillary is up by 12, which is almost certainly wrong, as the average of all the polls has her up by about 6. I'm too lazy to look up the margin for error of this poll, but it's probably less than 6, which seems like a contradiction. But margin for error is based on 95% confidence, so 5% of polls will be outside their margin for error. This poll is almost certainly one of them, as is the poll that has Trump up by 2. My point is twofold. One is the pollsters aren't intentionally fixing the polls. And two is that looking at any individual poll is misleading.
     
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  8. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    I appreciate you taking the time to explain that to me.
     
  9. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Not to get off topic here but I just watched a video taken in London where Muslim men have WOMEN on their knees and are auctioning them off like cattle !
    I think its safe to say something like this would never happen in NYC if Trump were to win,,,,,BUT,,,,,if Hillary wins ?
     
  10. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I think what you saw was a Kurdish protest, it was a mock auction depicting ISIS auctioning off slaves, I think this was from 2014.
     
  11. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wiki...n-campaign-consultant-swift/story?id=43027902
     
  12. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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  13. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

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    lmao, the entire Trump platform has been 'swift boat'..
     
  14. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    That was pretty much the response from the Clinton campaign. I refused to include it in my post.
     
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  15. xxedge72x

    xxedge72x 2018 Gang Green QB Guru Award Winner

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    Comply citizen!

    Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
     
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  16. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    link?
     
  17. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

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    See every debate...then see every tweet Trump has made..

    personal attacks are all he's got, and hasn't just been directed at Clinton.
     
  18. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    My understanding of a swift boat attack was that it was untrue.
     
  19. NotSatoshiNakamoto

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    lol - Trump is wearing a camo make america great again hat at his rally right now.
     
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