it's 5 because any less and noone will bet the Jets. Remember the Patriots always get a ton of action especially in parlays, if you tease the Patriots, steelers you drop 5 to about 2.5, and a good amount of people do things like that. Plus you get a decent amount of people who bet the top teams every week regardless of matchup, so if you don't give points to the jets you don't encourage betting on them.
The line's down to Pats - 3.5 and it's Thursday. It's moved 3 points since Monday night. We'll probably see another point or even 2 shaved off by Sunday morning. I'm guessing final line is Pats -2.5
What I find interesting is that according to vegasinsider.com, the spread started at Pats -6.5, is currently at Pats -3.5, yet 89% of the bets placed against the spread were on the Pats. The only way that makes sense to me is if a ton of money went on the Pats when it dropped to 3.5.
more line movement on this game than any other game from Week 1 or Week 2. 09/13 20:11 -6? +100 / +6? -108 09/13 20:27 -6? -104 / +6? -104 09/14 00:11 -6? +100 / +6? -108 09/14 00:36 -6? +107 / +6? -116 09/14 09:20 -6 +102 / +6 -110 09/15 07:02 -5 -104 / +5 -104 09/15 15:26 -5 -102 / +5 -106 09/15 16:45 -5 +103 / +5 -111 09/15 16:55 -4 +102 / +4 -110 09/15 17:00 -4 +100 / +4 -108 09/15 17:30 -4 +102 / +4 -110 09/15 17:45 -4 -102 / +4 -106 09/15 17:50 -4 +104 / +4 -113 09/15 20:56 -3? +100 / +3? -108 09/15 22:16 -3? -102 / +3? -106 09/17 10:46 -3? -104 / +3? -104 09/17 12:26 -3? +102 / +3? -110 09/17 13:11 -3? +106 / +3? -115 09/17 13:41 -3? +104 / +3? -113 09/17 14:01 -3? +106 / +3? -115
If a ton of money came in on the Pats the line would move up not down. Sounds like some serious money is being put down on the Jets.
It's called reverse line movement. It indicates that the "sharps", the people with more money to bet, are taking the Jets. Books move the line based on money, not % of people taking one side. 89% is not an accurate number, but the majority of bets being placed are clearly on the Cheatriots. The vast majority of the money is on the Jets.
Yis - your are 100% correct. White - It goes like this. 99 people come into a sports book and bet $100 on the Patriots then one big shot comes in and bets $20,000 on the Jets. The book just took in $9,900 on the Patriots and 99% of the bettors took the Patriots. On the flip side they took in $20,000 on the Jets and 1% of the bettors took the Jets. With that said on paper everyone is betting the Patriots but in reality they took more money on the Jets so the line goes down. Trust me it's a good sign to have the sharps on your side.
