Burnett vs Guthrie Colon vs Tillman Nova vs Britton Garcia vs Arietta Nova back up for the double dip. Guthrie shutting out the Yanks so far in Gm 1, 3-0 Top 6.
It's looking more and more like we need to trade for a starter if we're serious about the WS this year. Burnett will be cruising along, and then gets absolutely shelled. Happens every time, the guy is an enigma.
Nova's stuff was awesome tonight. He has to stay in the rotation for the rest of the season. Hughes needs to get through this season, work his balls off in the off-season to get his arm and body in much better shape, and come back strong in the spring. Also: [YOUTUBE]LIN_H-iHoeM[/YOUTUBE]
Glad we didn't ship off any prospects for trash like Wandy Rodriguez. We'll ride Freddy and Colon as far as we can.... Although the mentality around the NYY is "WS or bust" every year, I'm glad the FO realizes it's time to seriously start developing young arms (hopefully they do it right this time around, no stupid rules). If we don't win the WS this year, so be it. I think both Nova and Noesi have futures on this team as starters. What do you guys think? And Betances and Banuelos' potential goes without saying.
Well, I've been saying since day 1 that Nova's ceiling is as a #2 starter. I have taken a lot of shit for saying that, and he hasn't let me down. It might be time to start considering whether Hughes has staying power as a starter, or if maybe he's a future Mo. I don't think that question gets answered in 2011, but if he doesn't bounce back big next year, he shouldn't remain in the rotation. (And I'm still a Hughes homer.) As for not trading and having this "develop young arms" mentality, I disagree with it. Screw it. After burnouts by Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, Melancon, Brackman and whoever else was supposed to be the "next big thing" I think it's time to accept that maybe we aren't the best at developing talent to the pro level. Sure, we get a Nova and a Noesi here and there, but we also get failures. It's better to build them as far as AAA, then trade them off for established pieces (like Granderson) who help you win right now. I would have been all for trading Banuelos and Betances if it returned something significant (not Jimenez, but I'd have traded the farm -who wouldn't- for Felix). You can only try to win the World Series in 2011. Anything can happen between now and October 2012 and beyond. Honestly, the guy I was hoping the Yankees would make a deal for was Heath Bell, who expressed willingness to be a set up man in the right situation. He would have made a helluva heir-apparent to Mo. I think the Yankees gave up on this year as a serious thought though. Not necessarily out of fear for Texas or Boston, but because it really looks like whoever represents the NL is going to be pretty damned good. I'm not sure the AL can win this year and that's rare for me to say.
I hardly think you can call Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, Brackman, and Melancon burnouts at this point. Kennedy and Melancon especially, since they hardly even sniffed any time in NY. I wouldn't go crowning Nova or Noesi for the same reasons. And Brackman is just over one full season removed from TJS. The attrition rate for pitchers is absurdly high, regardless. That is why you stockpile and only trade for a sure thing. You're a Yankees fan, so you know about the Yankee prospects. How about other teams, though? What do you know about the Reds and the rate of success they have with young pitchers? Or the Dodgers? Or the Rangers? Or the Mariners? It's not surprising when a highly touted pitcher doesn't become a stud. It's more surprising when they do. But it's the most valuable commodity in the game, so unless you're trading for someone who truly is as close as possible to "can't miss," I'd say it's not worth it.
How exactly is that different from what I wrote? Anyway, as for burning out, in terms of what they were brought up to do, of the guys I listed, only Kennedy is actually fulfilling his role. Joba isn't a bad reliever, but he was expected to be a great starter. Hughes as well (though I'm still holding out hope for him, even while Girardi debates putting him in the pen). I haven't heard Melancon's name save once earlier this year, and I don't even remember the context. I don't know how closely you follow MiLB, but Brackman isn't bad, he's completely awful. That's not TJ surgery, that's an inability to find the strikezone. Some teams do well bringing along pitchers. Oakland and Tampa Bay come to mind. Is that luck? Is it having been in the basement long enough that they get can't-miss stockpiles? Both are possible. It's more likely that their systems are better than ours though, which is fine. The Yankees can afford to "make do" with other teams' projects. Which is why I have stopped advocating stockpiling talent, which is risky, and began supporting the idea that you cultivate whatever you can, then trade it for someone established. It doesn't matter right now anyway. The trade deadline has passed, and it's doubtful any team is going to let anything of value fall through waivers to us. Banuelos and Montero will get their shots, Hughes will likely go into the pen, and we'll be looking at some combination of Colon, Nova, and Garcia following CC if we play in October.
That part isn't different... it's your reaction to it and your analysis of the Yankees' past performance with young pitchers that differs. You seem to think that the Yankees are doing something poorly and/or that they're below average in terms of their success with young pitchers (they're not), and you're saying the Yanks should therefore trade away prospect pitchers because of it (they shouldn't). Yes, it's rare to have a young pitching prospect pan out, but it's also the most valuable commodity in baseball. -Melancon is Houston's closer and has a sub-3 ERA. -Kennedy is fulfilling his role, as you said. -Joba got hurt, and I still think he should have been given a chance to start again. -Jury is still out on Hughes, so I don't see how he's evidence that the Yanks can't develop young pitchers. But you're missing the point. You're talking about these guys (Kennedy and Melancon especially) as though they were total failures based on a handful of appearances in NY. We didn't see enough from either of them to be able to make that call... in the same way that we haven't seen enough from Nova or Noesi to call them guaranteed successes. Hughes had a lot of success early last year... then fell off a cliff. I'm not writing him off this year because he spent so long on the DL... but the same reasoning applies. Why do you want to be so quick to proclaim someone definitively this or positively that? I follow it more closely than most. You're missing the point again, though. Brackman has taken a huge step back this year, for sure. But the point is that you're writing him off, using him as evidence that the Yankees can't develop pitchers, when he's only a year out returning from TJS ... never mind that he's a really big dude and is going to have a much harder time repeating mechanics than someone of normal stature. Has his stock fallen? Sure. I don't see why you're so willing to use a guy who was high-risk, high-reward in the first place (as was Joba, incidentally) as evidence that they can't develop pitchers. It's also possible that they HAVE to do it that way. They collect draft picks (when they lose type A free agents) when big market teams lose draft picks. They are almost always the sellers, not the buyers come trade time. They don't fill their rotations with big FA signings, so you actually get to see their prospects try to make it in the bigs. Yankee prospects rarely get that chance. Except when it's for someone like Granderson... then you bitch about the trade endlessly, right? :smile: I don't disagree with the part in bold... you just better make sure you're valuing them properly. You don't trade your top pitching prospects for a guy from the NL who might be a #3 pitcher for you. You don't make a trade just to make a trade. You think Jiminez would've been a better option than Burnett/Hughes/Colon/Garcia/Nova? I don't. I mean, I think he could be a better option, but I don't give away Banuelos, Betances, and Montero to find out. And that's for Jiminez, arguably the best pitcher on the market. For a lesser pitcher? Forget about it.
I think you're just misunderstanding me. I have changed my mindset from trying to hold on to these young guys to trading them for value very recently. Like within the past week or so. For reasons just like Granderson, who I've admitted enough I was completely wrong about. According to Baseball-Reference.com Melacon has 10 saves in 50 games. I'm not sure his ERA is good enough to make up for that as a closer. As for Kennedy, let's be honest, in the AL, and especially the East, he'd never be in the rotation. I disagree that Joba should have had another shot at the rotation, but that's an issue that really isn't worth arguing. They made the decision and at this point they need to stick with it. As for Hughes, I'm not chalking him up to a lack of success. I still hold out hope he'll be the guy we thought he was going to be before he ever hit the majors. My only point is, I'd rather the Yankees not have such a focus on promoting their own in-house talent over trading it away. The thinking over the past few years has been to keep the talent and not give it up unless we get a very friendly deal. In hindsight, they should have given up anything they had to in a trade with Seattle for Lee. Instead, they chose to keep it, thinking they'd be paying double for him when they signed him last winter. Instead, they paid for what they got, nothing. As for this year, the only guy I was interested in acquiring was Bell. I wanted nothing to do with Jimenez who I think is overrated, and I wasn't keen on a Wandy trade either. Had Weaver been available, I'd have said that was a trade I'd make, and obviously if there were any shot at all of getting Felix, I'd trade the entire system away for him. I'm not attacking Cashman for not making deals this year. I'd rather do nothing than throw players away. Again, my point is simply that I'd prefer an overall orginizational philosophy change.
Saves are a lousy stat to use here. Melancon is playing for, by far, the worst team in the NL. Your team needs to be winning to be eligible for a save. You can't deny that he's pitched well, though... well enough to be given the closer's role on a ML team. I still think you're missing the bigger point of my disagreement: I think you've made hasty judgments here, on all of these pitchers, and then turn those hasty judgments into a sweeping statement about the organization's ability to develop talent relative to the rest of the league. That is some revisionist history. The Yankees made the best offer they could... one that Seattle had wanted, in fact, but Seattle preferred Texas's last-minute offer. So you wanted the Yanks to trade one or more of their top prospects for a reliever in the NL West who pitches half his games in the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball? Well I don't get your original point, then. The philosophy is you make the trade for the right players. It's always been that, as far as I can tell (since Cashman took over). You've seen that he has no problems dealing top prospects if he thinks it's the right move. He was willing to do it for Lee last year. He was willing to do it to get Granderson (for better) and Vazquez and Marte (or worse). But the rarity of top-flight pitchers (especially durable ones) is exactly why you can't pry Felix away from Seattle (or Weaver from LAA), and exactly why teams try to stockpile arms and hope one works out for them. It's more or less the same for every team.
