Power blocking scheme, a solid stable of backs in Greene, Ganaway, McKnight, and Powell, Tim Tebow (who WILL help our run game with his legs), and Tony Sparano.
Very well said OP. I also am a huge Sanchez believer and I also believe that he will shock the league this year and put up solid numbers (maybe not that many touchdowns because the offense will be more focused on the run game but still at least 20 tds.)
I dont care about high TD numbers. Shocking the world will be cutting down the turnovers. As a whole. The entire team sucked in this category. And many of Marks werent helped by the o-line (Ravens game).
I know it will take time for the rookies to come around. The guys I'm excited about are our last two years' picks, especially on offense. Remember, the guys last year still haven't had a camp at all, and the guys from two years ago haven't had that opportunity to grow. I really expect a huge step up from Ducasse, I expect Powell to actually appear on the field, I expect McKnight to look more decisive (and hold on to the ball better), I am looking for break-out years from Kerley and, on the D side, Kyle Wilson. I am even (cautiously) hopeful that Hunter can look significantly better --dude can't look worse-- Remember, he didn't have camp last year, either, AND he was supposed to be Rob Turner's back up. Getting a full camp with the starting line could be big for him. Let's hope so, anyway, cause it looks like we're stuck with him.
I think it's gonna be tough for Sanchez to have the kind of year you guys are hoping for, and it has little to do with the kind of player he is. The question is whether or not the rest of the offense can put him in a position to succeed. The offensive line was pretty mediocre last year, is the same group of players gonna be much better this year? I know some of you are pinning your hopes on Tony Sporano's new scheme, but that's no different than last year hoping that Vlad Ducasse would succeed under Bill Callahan "the best O-line coach in the league." Coaching and scheme only go so far, and there is good reason to believe this group isn't talented enough. It's not like things get better when you look at skill position players. You have Holmes (a very good player) Keller (another good player) and Greene (an average RB) as your best players. After that you have literally no one after that's proven they belong in the NFL. Mediocre talent on the line and unproven skill players is a tough situation for situation for any QB to succeed in.
On the offensive line, we learnt Slauson played hurt and Brick had an off year covering for him. Realistically as a football observer and not even a Jets fan, you have to expect Brick to improve and Slauson to stay the same worst case scenario. Mangold also should be 100% healthy. Barring injury, you have to figure the O line plays at worst slightly better than they did this previous year, or do I have green colored glasses on?
There's a slight tint of green in those glasses, but I think you can still see pretty clear. It's not my intention to come on here and bash Matt Slauson, because after playing last season with a torn labrum, rotator cuff, and bicep I would never question his toughness or competitiveness. Problem is, you don't really know what to expect from him. How he's gonna recover from that surgery is an unknown, and even if he is healthy how good of a player is he really? You're also not accounting for the fact that Brandon Moore is another year older, so there is a risk that his play will drop off, as it appeared to do last year. There is also the unaddressed problem of depth, if anyone goes down for a prolonged period (especially Mangold or Ferguson) then things will get real ugly. So things could get a little better, or they could get a little worst, but more or less I think you should expect pretty much the same performance, and that isn't good enough.
When did Moore's play drop off? He was great last year and very consistent. He had what 1 or 2 sacks? His run blocking is always going to be solid too. Not saying Moore won't drop off this year, but he certainly did not last year.
I'll guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I thought his play dropped off last year, particularly in the earlier part of the season when he was still coming back from his hip problems.
I understand the lack of depth, that's why I said barring injury because injury is always a wildcard. Fair points on Moore and Slauson. It all comes back to what Sparano can do with the line. The annoying part about Wayne Hunter was he came in at the end of 2010-2011 season and did fine as a backup for Woody. He might not have played great, but he held his own and wasn't as a big as a liability as he seemed this year. I think a lot of Jets fans, including me, are optimistic about Vlad is because Sparano runs a more physical, less mentally challenging blocking scheme and Vlad is physical guy, his confusion seemed to come from who to block and who to help, not how to do it. That doesn't mean he can become an all pro RT, but in my opinion it won't take too much work to be less of a liability than Hunter
I don't know man, from the looks of it he just flat out can't pass protect. I think this whole "simpler blocking scheme" is just false hope for fans to hold onto. I'm not saying he can't get better, but if he does it's not gonna be because of the simple scheme, it's gonna be because he improved himself as a player. But based on the first two years, I don't think there is a lot of reason for optimism.
Oh I wasn't saying just because of a simple blocking scheme, but that definitely could help him out. He came into games last year at times and played decent. I'm not expecting him to be a successful starting RT game 1 of the season, that would be a nice surprise, but I think he could become valuable depth. I think he could even become a starting RT but mainly because Hunter is so bad not because he wows the coaching staff, lesser of the two evils, pick your poison, another relevant saying.
OK, I don't think there is anything terribly controversial with what you're saying here. But allow me to pose the following question. Given the uncertainty of what they'll get in terms of contributions from Ducasse, Slauson, and Moore, how confident do you feel about this offensive line? How good do you realistically expect them to be? I think given the lack of experience at the skill positions, the Jets need the O line to be a dominant one to allow Sanchez to produce the kind of numbers people in this thread were saying. Do you see this as a potentially dominant line? Do you think they can survive with only slight improvement?
As of right now I see them as 13-17 range in the NFL as of right now. Probably 15 to be exact. I don't know too much about other offensive lines in the NFL, but I would think with Brick/Mangold that put them there. They were around there last year with injuries I believe. To produce the numbers in this thread, the O line has to be dominant if you think Sanchez won't improve and stays the same. If Sanchez improves, which I think he will, the O line only has to be great. I think the potential is there for the o line to be dominant, but most likely they won't be. I give it 20% shots of being dominanat, 50 for becoming great, 20 for staying the same or slight improvement, 10 somewhere else because I added wrong. We can call the 10 a horrible year probably due to injuries. But even though I have 50 for the O line being great, I personally don't believe Sanchez will have numbers like that. They will be good, but not like that. But you asked about the numbers posted here, so thats just a sidenote. They could survive with slight improvement because IMO Sparano will straighten out the play calling and Sanchez will improve. They went 8-8 last year with the O line, so I think they can be contending for a playoff spot with a slight improvement so 9-7 and 8-8 area. If great, securing a playoff spot so 10-6 or 11-5. If dominant, ending up in a Pitt/Bal situation this year where they go 12-4 or better but lose the division based on tiebreakers/ bad luck.
This debate is bizarre. I think it's because it's reasonable, with fair arguments being acknowledged, and no plainly biased emotional attachments on display. Fucking freaks. Can anyone direct me to theganggreen.com message board?
OK, this might get a little confusing, because right now it looks like you have four potential categories. The offensive line could either be dominant, great, pretty much as good as last year, or worst than last year. With all due respect, I don't think those are very good categories. So how about you tell me the odds using these ones. Elite Good Average Below Average Terrible IMO last year they were pretty average, and at times played below average. In 2009 they were definitely elite, you could have made the case they were the best in the league that year. If I had to guess, I would say there is pretty much no chance they become elite. The only way that would be possible is if Ducasse suddenly becomes a beast at RT, and I just don't see that as very likely. Hell, it's gonna be hard to even be good unless there is a pretty significant improvement from that position. I think realistically they will be average, and things probably turn ugly if there are any significant injuries.
As it stands right now there is probably less than a 5% chance that Sanchez throws for 4k yards next year. The only thing that's changed for him so far this off-season is that a rookie WR is likely to be the split end for the Jets, with all the drops and inconsistency that implies (nothing against Hill in particular but the over/under for a guy with his size/speed and lack of practical experience is under 30 catches next year). His actual opportunities to throw the ball will go down both by the scheme used and by the fact that he will be sharing some number of snaps with his backup next year that he took himself last year. Taking Sanchez improvements over the first three seasons and matching them up against Eli's improvements (and I think the comparison is reasonable because both of them live under the microscope of the NY tabloids and all the pressure that creates) you'd think that his numbers might look like this: Att - 475 (G&P/TebowTime) Comp - 275 Pct - 57.9 Yds - 3135 (G&P/TebowTime) YPA - 6.6 TD - 23 Int - 15 QBRat 83.0 Eli actually had a worse season overall in his 4th season as only his YPA went up and to just a paltry 6.3 from 6.2, He took a step back in TD Pct, Int Pct and Completion Pct while that was happening. If we get lucky we get something like Eli's 5th year out of Sanchez next year and he completes 60% of his passes for the first time (took Eli 5 seasons to get there) and throws 20+ TD's and only 10 Int's (ditto) and has an 86-ish rating. That would be roughly where Tom Brady was in 2003 and a bit below Brady's 2004.
Hmm okay, Elite- 5%. Either the O line gets all the breaks or Sanchez becomes a QB who can mask an average o line. This second scenario is .00000000001% chance of happening out of that 5. For me elite means top 5 in the league. Good- 45% I think this is where they end up. Brick gets back to normal, Slauson improves based off last year, Moore with a slight decline, RT can't worse. Good is strange that can go from 5-13 rank in the league. Average 30%. Everything stays the same from last year or things cancel each other out like RT improves but Moore declines severely. 13-17 Below Average 15 %. An injury would have to occur and someone would have to play hurt most of the year. What happened at times last year. 17-25 Terrible 5%. Injuries everywhere. 25-32 So I'm saying 20% chance an injury lasting more than few games occurs to the o line so that they either end up below average or terrible. On the good part from 5-13 in the league, I would think most of the 45% is that they end up 8-13 range of offensive lines in the league.
The Jets offensive line is probably going to be pretty average next season. They could find a RT and improve that some. They could see Slauson step up and become a plus player and improve that some. They could even see Brandon Moore bounce back from a ho-hum season and have a great season, like the one he had in 2009, and improve that some. They could also see Moore decline some and suddenly have a below-average line that struggles to keep it together. I'm not even going to look at what would happen if Mangold or Ferguson got hurt for any significant period of time other than to say that we've seen that scenario in 2005 and it was extremely ugly. Adrian Jones was the guy they were touting as their great young prospect at that point. He got 16 starts that year and never started a game for the Jets again. Sometimes it's better to wait until a guy has actually played to call him an answer.
Have to ask, are you (and others) factoring in the change in blocking schemes ? The (hopefully) more effective running game ? The additions to the receiving corps ? Yada, yada, yada ?
