Sunday notes: Geno could decide Rex's fate November, 3, 2013 NOV 3 6:00 AM ET By Rich Cimini | ESPN NewYork.com Thoughts and observations on the New York Jets: 1. The Re-X factor: The top storyline for the second half of the season, which begins Sunday, will be the future of head coach Rex Ryan. Owner Woody Johnson and general manager John Idzik have to make a decision: Extend his contract or fire him. Naturally, the No. 1 factor will be the team's record, but there's another factor that should (and will) loom large in the evaluation -- the development of rookie quarterback Geno Smith. If Smith makes strides and finishes with his arrow pointing up, it would be a huge boost for Ryan and his coaching staff. It would mean he's developing under Marty Mornhinweg & Co., and what sense would it make to start over next year with a new staff? My sense is that a 7-9 record, with an ascending Smith, would be good enough to earn Ryan another year. Statistically, Smith's second quarter was slightly better than the first, but he'll need more than baby steps over the final eight games to nail down the job for 2014. If he regresses, it won't bode well for Ryan. How Geno Smith plays the remainder of this season could play a role in deciding Rex Ryan's future with the team. "If I put on my GM hat, I would tie Rex, Marty and Geno together," said ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, one of the smart people around football. "The Marty-Geno mix is really good, and I think Marty is good for Rex. The Jets' ceiling, if they acquire more talent, is higher because of Marty's aggressive approach. I wouldn't want to start over with a new guy next year. They should maintain continuity. They're wildly inconsistent, but it looks better and has a better feel than last year. It's a better product." I agree. But Smith needs to keep going in the right direction. 2. Quarterbacking 101: Dilfer said Smith is operating an offensive system more complex than what the Jets used in Mark Sanchez's rookie year in 2009. In '09, they scaled it back to help Sanchez. It was heavy play-action and they moved the pocket, halving the field and cutting down his reads. With Smith, "It's pure dropback, with complex read progressions," Dilfer said. "Marty is throwing a lot of good stuff at him. It's baptism by fire. Talking to great coaches and great quarterbacks, and knowing my own experience, that's the best way to get the best out of a young quarterback. It speeds them up to the graduate level." I get it, but I think there should be times when Mornhinweg dials it back a little to help Smith through rough patches. 3. Where the Hill is Stephen? Second-year WR Stephen Hill has become an afterthought in the Jets' offense, raising questions about him. Consider the last five games: 23 targets and only 10 receptions, including five when the team was in an obvious catch-up/passing mode. Save for two big games against the Buffalo Bills, Hill has been a disappointment in his first two seasons. In fact, one-third of his career yardage total (and three of his four TDs) has come in the two Buffalo games. I asked Mornhinweg about Hill's lack of production, and all he said was, "That's my responsibility. I have to do a better job there." Meaning? "Get him the ball a little bit." Here's the part that stings the Jets: They drafted Hill in the second round (43rd overall) after trading up, passing up WR Alshon Jeffery, who has become a solid receiver with the Chicago Bears. Jeffery has 57 catches, 928 yards and five touchdowns in two seasons; Hill has 44, 592 and four. The Jets knew Hill would be a project when they drafted him, but it has to be troubling that a receiver off the street -- David Nelson -- has produced better numbers over the past month. 4. Re-visiting Revis Island: Some in the media (including me) have fallen into the trap of trying to imagine the Jets' defense if they had kept CB Darrelle Revis, perhaps conveniently forgetting that he's coming back from major knee surgery. He's still not the Revis of old, and he admitted it the other day on his weekly radio spot in Tampa. Revis, explaining why the Buccaneers haven't used him in the press-man style that made him famous, said his surgically repaired knee has been the main factor. “Earlier in the year, I didn’t have the explosion to play press; the receiver would just run the [vertical] 9-route on me and I didn’t have the stamina to do that play in and play out, especially playing press," Revis said. If he were with the Jets, this would be a significant issue, considering their system is predicated on man-to-man coverage. 5. Ivory's payback: Chris Ivory downplayed Sunday's matchup against the New Orleans Saints, his former team, but I suspect he will be highly motivated to prove a point. Back in training camp, Ivory admitted to me that his three-year run in New Orleans was difficult at times because of their crowded backfield. "I never felt lost, but I didn't like the situation at times," Ivory said. "At the same time, you have to understand there are phases you have to go through, being undrafted. They had guys they drafted, guys they had confidence in. Me, just coming in, I had to build their confidence and it took a little more time." The Jets traded a fourth-round pick for Ivory, one of only six player trades last offseason involving a fourth-round pick or higher, according to ESPN's John Clayton. The Jets had two of the six -- the Ivory and Revis trades. 6. Revolving door: Because of injuries, it has been difficult to build continuity on offense. In fact, the Jets have used 28 different players, tied with the Bucs for most in the league. 7. Go wide, young man: The Jets aren't known as a perimeter running team, but maybe they should think about it more often. When they run around left end, they average 6.78 yards per carry, the fifth-best mark in the league, according to NFL stats. When they go right end, it's 5.59 yards. Imagine if they had a real perimeter threat. 8. McElroy's intel: Dan Pompei of Bleacher Report spent a week with Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, who allowed behind-the-scenes access as he prepared for last week's game against the Jets. The story reveals that former Jets QB Greg McElroy, a member of the Bengals' practice squad, was a big help. McElroy typed up a tip sheet and gave it to QB Andy Dalton. Gruden also picked his brain on the Jets in a meeting. "His insight is very helpful," Gruden told Pompei in the middle of the week. "He has a pulse on their defense, what hurts them." I'd say the Bengals hurt them, all right. 9. Good news/bad news: The Jets are one of only 11 teams since 2001 to have a minus-12 turnover margin or worse through eight games. That's bad. Of those 11 teams, they're the only one to have a .500 record. That's good. It indicates what they could be if Smith stops giving it away. 10. Feeling old: The first time I saw Nick Toon was Nov. 27, 1992, the day his dad, Al, retired from the NFL at the too-young age of 29. Nick was only 4, but he was at the news conference, and I remember seeing him afterward in the parking lot at the Jets' old Hofstra training facility. He hopped into a mini-van, and the family drove off. It always struck me that Al's wife, Jane, was behind the wheel. Al, still suffering from post-concussion syndrome, wasn't fit to drive. Now, Nick is a grown-up wide receiver, and he'll be playing Sunday for the Saints at MetLife Stadium. I'll be in the press box, wondering how 21 years flew by in a minute. http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/30450/sunday-notes-geno-could-decide-rexs-fate
Cimini is spot on with this. The arrow needs to be pointing up, playoffs are secondary. MM and Lee have done a good job. Now you must build speed around him.
actually IMHO, Geno's performance and/or the rest of this season has nothing to do with Rex's fate. I believe his fate has already been decided and his long term extension as HC of the NYJ will be announced as soon as the season is over... reasons the Jets are 4-4 in a rebuild season with a rookie QB already exceeding the expectations for the entire season by the football blowhards like Semen Rex has proven he deserves the extension in the view of John Idzik whose view is the only one that matters.
A big IF, but IF Woody/Idzik decide to 'move in a different direction' then John Gruden may interview for the HC job. He's recently stated he might give coaching one more shot. Uggg.
Its a shame the Rex's head coaching career has been saddled with rookie and/or horrible QB play.......it could ultimately be his demise here as HC.
Hopefully the bold is true. At least they are trying something different than what they tried with Sanchez, whether that's coming from MM, Idzik, or Rex, at least they are trying something different. Didn't know we had so many injuries. I guess Vlad for Winters wasn't injuries, but the TE, RB, WR switching is due to injuries with Hill, Holmes, Kerley, Winslow, Ivory, and Goodson all missing games made people move up in the depth chart. Did you guys know that Tom Brady has new wide receivers? :wink:
whether rex is here or not next year really has NOTHING to do with a rookie qb. i think rex tried to distance himself in the preseason from the rookie and was shown who was in charge. if the qb does well it will be morningwood who gets the credit, if he does poorly it will be looked upon as a learning situation that morningwood is working on. rex is tied to his defense, he is really the defacto dc this year. and the defense has not been absolutely spectacular. the front 7 has played the run extremely well, we still have some issues with coverage at lb and the back 4 have not played well at all. how rex deals with THAT situation will tell alot more about whether he is the guy in new york. i think that his record really will have little to do with it either, we will end up with a pretty decent record. the rest of the season is not filled with world beaters. it would be a good idea for rex to figure out how to get things a little more even and consistent. that could be his saving grace. but i think idzik already has made his decision as well. i think he neutered rex and really doesnt care for him. i think that the qb competition and back and forth between them (i assume) will loom large. i think rex showed him he was not in his corner and was not going to tow the company line. and i think that hurts him badly going forward.
I agree with this if Rex gets fired it cuz Idzik already decided his faith long ago. Not cuz of what happens now , if he makes the playoffs tho or ends like 9-7 it might be hard to cut ties with Rex tho.
Those are different situations though. For example, Woody didn't like Mangini and the players hated him, for the most part. Woody likes Rex, and the players love him- and he's also recognized as probably the best defensive mind in the NFL today. Marty Schottenheimer was fired largely because he insisted on making his brother Kurt Schottenheimer the Defensive Coordinator, which infuriated the owner. Kurt is one of those coaches who is not good, but got to stay in the biz because of the prestige of his father's name, same exact thing as Brian Schottenheimer (who is much more talented than Kurt, sadly enough.) Kurt would get fired as a DC every 1 - 2 years, which tells me that he must've been pretty bad at it, and then he wound up back as a positional coach, and then as a UFL coach under his dad in 2011 for the Virginia Destroyers. The Chargers knew Kurt was lousy and figured that the disadvantages of having Kurt as their DC outweighed the advantages of having Marty as the HC. Lovie Smith was straight-up wronged. He never should've been fired. But the Browns finished the season with a 3-5 record in the second half, and didn't make the playoffs even though he went 10-6. In 2011, the Browns lost their last 5 games after starting 8-3; so I guess that made the ownership feel like they could be a 12-4 type of team if they could do better down the stretch, but in reality Smith was a great coach for the Browns and never should have been fired. They might have fired him partly because they wanted to get rid of the GM, and then usually when you get a new GM, his first order of business is firing the HC so that he can bring in "his guy". I'd say things look promising for Rex, but if the Jets collapse in the second half of the season he could still get fired. If the Jets can get to 8-8 his job will be safe for sure IMO, if he gets 7 wins, it could go either way. I think the big thing is that Woody and Idzik want to feel that the arrow is pointing upwards and that Rex is the right guy to lead the team into the heart of the rebuilding process in 2014. If Rex were to be fired, then the Jets would also probably have to draft a QB with their first round pick (for the new HC) and give up on Smith since the new guy will give the benefit of the doubt to his own QB choice, even though Smith has shown that he has the potential to be a good QB. I don't think Smith would have been drafted if they were leaning towards firing Rex, or if they were trying to set him up for failure to secure a top draft pick for 2014.
I'm guessing that every main point in this post is wrong. I think Rex has an excellent chance of coming back next year with an extension through 2016 or so. I also think that if the Jets suck in December that he has almost no chance at all of returning. I'm guessing that Woody Johnson and John Idzik will collaborate on the decision as to what to do at the end of the season. The key thing to remember about this focus point for the Jets is that the QB is everything right now. If Geno is moving along well then there is no argument for switching, as Cimini says. You don't want to bring a new head coach in when you have a second year QB. The QB becomes an orphan at that point because the new head coach will want his guy at QB. On the other hand if Geno is not progressing then the Jets are going to be doing poorly down the stretch, likely to end up with a bad record off of a bad December. Then they're going to be in decision mode on a new QB in the draft next season and you can't let Rex make that pick off of 3 bad Decembers in a row when you're likely to have to fire him anyway at the end of 2014 and the new QB AND Geno will both be orphans for the new head coach. It really does come down to Geno. Cimini has that one right. One final point: The thing that makes Rex a great head coach (when he's being great) is his defensive acumen and his ability to lead his men. If the Jets have a bad second half and wind up 5-11 or 6-10 again then Rex's great defense and leadership will have turned into 8-8, 6-10, 6-10. At that point it is easier to make the case that his inability to get consistently good play out of the offense outweighs his proven ability to get good play out of the defense.
If we lose more games because the D gets lit up and Milner and the secondary doesn't come around it's hard to blame that on the rookie QB. Geno is Idziks pick and MM was probably an Idzik pick. Rex is tied to the D.
The circumstances, particularly around the QB position, suggest otherwise. Unless the Jets are going with Geno next year no matter what happens down the stretch it's just hard to see them staying with Rex in the event the team collapses at the end of the season. Can you imagine having a shaky Geno as the starter, with that $2M roster bonus decision early on Sanchez and then having to figure out whether to draft a QB or not when Rex was going to be the head coach next year? That's like an ulcer on tap for whoever is managing the situation.
I can't imagine that any of that falls on Rex. Geno was Idziks pick and I'm sure MM isn't the OC without Idzik's approval. Rex is going to be judged on the teams overall effort and the play of the D. If the team collapses because of a lack of effort that's going to be on Rex.
Only read the headline, what a load of bullshit!. Shithead stirring a pot that doesn't need stirring.
