The answer to the thread topic is that the Jets job will be attractive to quality head coaching candidates in direct proportion to how much control they are given as they come in the door. If the Jets are seriously looking at guys like Bill O'Brien and David Shaw they need to realize that the guy is not coming to NY unless he has at least equal status to the GM in terms of picking players for the roster. Most high-profile college coaches want more than that these days. they want a Pete Carroll/Chip Kelly type deal where they are the man and the rest of the management structure is tiered to support them. Pete Carroll hired John Schneider in Seattle not the reverse. So high-profile college coach probably means that Idzik's role gets reduced significantly in the process. The star-quality head coaches sitting on the sidelines right now are Jon Gruden and Bill Cowher. Both of those guys are going to want to run the operation and hire their own GM, assuming they have one, on the way in the door. So all the high-quality candidates, the people who would bring instant credibility to the position are also going to take up more control than most GM's would like to cede as they come in the door. That leaves the coordinators out there who are looking for their first position as a HC as the primary candidate pool for the Jet's HC job. Greg Roman, Darrell Bevell, Dan Quinn, etc. The recently fired head coaches who are not damaged goods comprise the other part of the pool. That would be Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith, Wade Phillps (if he does not get the Texans job), etc. I don't think there's a candidate likely to come to the Jets who is less risky than Rex for the 2014 season. After that things become much simpler. Another iffy performance from the Jets and it's easy to make a change. The only way you can't make a change after 2014 is if the Jets play well and make the playoffs. It seems to me like maintaining the status quo for another season, with Idzik having a free hand to make a change next year is the most logical proposition. If we were not in the metro area media bubble things might be different, but there is no room here to go with a low-profile signing and accidentally suck next year and avoid a shootout at the OK corrall with the Jets as innocent bystanders caught in the middle.
As long as Woody Johnson is owner we will never get a top tier NFL coach. Expect another project - probably somebody Idzik knows.
Very good response Br4d, and I definitely think you're right. This is what I was thinking when I made the thread; bringing anyone in will be more risky than staying with Rex for a year. It's up to Idzik if he wants to take that risk.
100% in agreement with this. No extension w/o a significant increase in performance on the field. Let Rex bet the house on 2014 and whatever happens, happens.
Rex Ryan is miles better than any of the Richie Kotites on that putrid list Hopefully Idzik annonces his new extended contract on Monday so we can wish a fond farewell to the likes of RexMustGo and the rest of the Joe Beningnoramus clowns Sent from my BNTV400 using Tapatalk
What are you gonna do if Idzik DOES send Rex on his way? You're not gonna whine about it all season are ya? If so, please give us fair warning.
What I'm gonna do is root for the Jets and hope for the best...just like you and the rrst of us who root for the laundty Merry Christmas Cman
On the surface, this looks like a very good post. Control or lack thereof will definitely be part of the discussion. I'm just not so sure everything is as set in stone as you portray it, however. You could be right, but I think there's a chance at least that the vision that Idzik has for the team might be a match with the vision that a Cowher or Shaw would have. If Idzik and whomever are on the same page and that HC would have a significant voice in personnel, it may not be as cut and dried as you say, particularly, if Woody sweetened the pot in terms of their compensation. They might be willing to ceded some control for more $s. I like Gruden as a commentator, but would have no interest in him as a HC. Cowher OTOH is interesting. He might miss coaching enough that he'd be willing to come back without complete control as long as he felt comfortable with Idzik's vision for the team and he believed he could trust Idzik's judgment on personnel. I'm not that high on Bill O'Brien, but I don't think he's done anything significant enough to merit equal status with a GM or have control over personnel in the NFL. The way you portray it, any very good college coach would be taking a step down from his present collegiate position to come to the NFL. I don't think that's true at all. In addition, you never know what may be in the mindset of a collegiate coach. Perhaps, like Saban a few years ago, he thought he had accomplished all he could at the collegiate ranks and wanted to try his hand at the NFL. Ego is a powerful thing, and to have a chance to make a name for themselves at the very top level of coaching might be too tempting for some to resist. In terms of risk, there's no such thing as a "sure thing." If you could clone him and have him at the peak of his coaching powers, Vince Lombardi might well fail because he might not be able to relate to today's players or NFL. There's always risk. The question is where you want the risk to be. IMO there are certain areas where risk is acceptable and some where it isn't. For example, with the Jets having a young QB and so many young players (after the draft), the area of player development, particularly with regard to the QB, is not an area where you want to fail. You want to minimize the risk there. IMO Rex has not done a very good job with player development at all, and has done a particularly poor job with developing his young QBs. Rex defenders can say that he's a defensive genius all they want, but the bottom line is that the buck stops with the HC. He is responsible for the play of the entire team and for developing the talent and potential in every player. A good HC either knows how to do that, or he knows how to pick the right CS to insure that that happens, regardless of what he knows or doesn't know about the Xs and Os on either offense or defense. An area where I think risk is more accessible is in the handling of the individual units on the team. Again, Rex defenders point to his prowress as a DC as the reason for keeping him. Again I say that Rex's job is as HC, NOT DC. Give me a strong HC who knows how to handle young QBs, who is a strong leader, who has a clear understanding and vision of the game and strategy, over a HC who is a great OC or great DC but not so great HC. A HC who understands the game, is intelligent and a leader, will hire strong coordinators to run the three units of the team and will hold them accountable to insure that those units perform as expected. Rex doesn't do this. He doesn't hold anyone accountable. When looking at risk, I think you also have to look at short-term goals and expectations vs long-term goals and expectations and balance the two. For instance, in terms of short-term goals, many expect the team to make the playoffs next season. That would seem to favor Rex as being less risky. In terms of long-term goals, next year's W-L record is only a blip on the horizon, whereas the key thing is the development Geno, Milliner, Allen, and the other young players presently on the team and those added through the draft and FA, and melding them into an effective, consistent winner. When looking at that, imo Rex is the FAR risker HC. I would have infinitely more trust in someone else in developing the young players on the team, especially Geno or if the Jets draft another QB, with his development. For the Jets' future, the long-term goals of development of their young players is much more critical than whether they make the playoffs next season. Fans are short-sighted. They want immediate gratification, but it's the GM's and HC's jobs to look long term. It would be better to finish 8-8 or 9-7 next year and develop most, if not all of their young players for the future, so that beginning in 2015 the Jets would be a perennial playoff team for the next 5-10 years rather than have them make the playoffs next year, but because half of the young players didn't develop, including the crucial QB position, the Jets had to continue to try to "re-tool" for the next year or years. The other danger for me is that let's say the Jets make the playoffs next season at 9-7. As you say, there'd be no way the Jets could fire Rex then. They'd have to extend him, and probably for at least three, if not five years. What if next season was an anomaly, and after next year, the team fell back to 7-9 or even 6-10 or even 8-8? Do you think Idzik could turn around and fire Rex then without looking like a moron? What if things remained at 8-8 or 9-7 for the next several seasons? Idzik might not have to worry about backlash then if he fired Rex, but would Woody be willing to eat a couple of years of Rex's contract? I'm not so sure. So, imo, it is FAR riskier to stick with Rex than it is to move on. I'm not taking the short-term view of next season. I'm thinking about the future of the franchise for the next 5-10 years. Rex is not the guy I want leading the team into the future. I want a true leader, someone with more intelligence, a better philosophy/approach to the game, someone who is more disciplined and will hold his players and CS accountable, and someone less conservative.
There are going to be a lot of HC positions to fill after this week. It's going to be a highly competitive market if you're a HC. It will be interesting to see if we don't retain Rex if he gets one of the other HC jobs. I can see a possibility for 5 to 8 openings at the end of the season. The question is if we don't retain Rex does Idzik already have a coach in waiting or are we in competition for a number of candidates with other clubs. I suspect if Idzik doesn't already have his man Rex stays.
I think Rex should stay for next year for two reasons. First, in reading through this thread, it doesn't seem as if there is a string viable candidate available as a replacement. Firing the coach without a plan for an improved situation is very poor planning. Second, I expected a 4-5 win team this year. Rex kept the Jets relevant for a while and I enjoyed have Jets games that mattered in a season that I didn't expect that would happen. One more season at least.
I see 2 flaws with your reasoning. First, we aren't Idzik. Just because you don't see a viable candidate listed doesn't mean that Idzik doesn't have one or several in mind, nor does it mean that he doesn't have a plan in mind. Second, just because you expected a 4-5 win team doesn't mean that's what idzik expected or that's what others expected or what was reality. With things in total disarray last year the Jets won 6 games. With the addition of Barnes to improve the pass rush, the addiion of a quality, competent OC in MM and the subtraction of Tebow and Sparano, the hopeful replacement of Sanchez as the starter, plus the addition of the draft picks, I, and a number of other fans expected at least 7 wins if not 8 or 9, even with a number of new starters on D and a rookie QB. For fans who want Rex to stay, it sure is surprising how little confidence you guys had him this season. If he is half the HC that you all think he is, there's no way this team should have finished with only 3-4 wins.
Good point. There are clearly better coaching jobs than the Jets. Texans and Lions as you point out, and I'd throw the Bucs in there too as having a good roster, not a huge spotlight, and be on the heels of 2 terrible coaches where having any success would get you in great standing quickly with the organization. Our job is probably on par with jobs like the Vikings and Titans, and maybe a bit ahead of teams like the Raiders and Redskins. Cowboys would be sort of a wildcard and not all that dissimilar to us, huge media spotlight and a flawed roster although they do have very good QB. Meddling owner/GM is an issue for any coach who would go there, the same issue exists in Washington which just looks like a trainwreck of a situation right now.
You expected 7 if not 8 or 9 wins before Holmes got hurt, Kerley got hurt, Hill got hurt, Gates got hurt, before we even knew about Cribbs and he got hurt, Winslow getting suspended, Cumberland hurt, Cromartie hurt, Barnes hurt? If I told you all that would you still have predicted 7-9 wins? If so, please tell me how you remain so optimistic. Oh and Goodson too, but most people were expecting not much with the suspension and pending legal issue.
Win in NYC and the HC will make a ton of endorsement money! They all know it! With the great DL we have and so many picks plus cap money, any HC would be a fool not to come to NY.
Well, they all didn't get hurt in the same week. Even though I knew Geno wasn't ready to start and was throwing picks, he was showing flashes, and I loved MM's aggressive offense. I wasn't optimistic enough to think they would/could make the playoffs after the injuries started, but then I didn't think they'd make the playoffs before that, either. I thought they'd have a mediocre record (7-9 wins). I thought that with the DL the Jets have, and a quality OC in MM that at the very least they'd have to equal if not better last year's record. I never expected Geno to keep throwing all the picks he did, either. At the beginning of the year, I thought that at a minimum, the Jets would beat the Bucs, split with the Dolphins and Pats, beat the Raiders and Browns, and beat the Bills at least once if not sweep them. I thought that they had a chance to beat the Titans or Steelers. I never thought they'd beat the Saints, Ravens, Falcons, Bengals (unless Dalton played really poorly) or Panthers (unless Cam played really poorly and turned the ball over 2-3 times).
So really your early season expectations matched the results of this team except with this team being hurt by an array injuries and getting worse QB play than expected? I would file that under good coaching and I definitely think Idzik/Woody expected a worse season and not to be in the playoff race (although that's more the lack of quality teams in the AFC). I think, as some people guessed earlier this year, Idzik was given Rex but a really poor year this year he could throw Rex under the bus and start fresh. I think the 7-8 wins was not expected and now the Jets are in an odd spot for Idzik. He needs to judge the talent of the team and not think because of the wins they are better than they really are. The Jets/Tanny made this mistake after 2010 in my opinion, and I hope Idzik sees we still need an influx of talent and not just veterans to fill gaps. The team is coming off completely different seasons 2010 vs 2013, but the same mistake can be made.
I agree that there was better coaching, but on the offensive side of the ball, until after the Bye when Rex stepped in and caused problems. Hopefully, Idzik isn't as stupid as Tanny. Nothing I've seen to date even remotely suggests that he is. If nothing else, he'd have to be a moron to not realize what happened in 2010 and then make the same mistake. I think he's very aware of the talent shortcomings on this team. That's why I don't think the W-L record was all that important to Idzik this season. That's a concern more for the fans in a rebuilding year. In terms of the team, I think he was more interested in developing their young players as much as possible and seeing who they were going to be able to count on to help them going forward, so he'd get a better idea of where his priorities should like in FA and the draft. In terms of Rex, he may have never been open to keeping Rex in the first place. He may have kept Rex last year only because Woody made him. Then again, he may have given Rex a list of things that he thought Rex needed to work on, improve upon in order to remain as the Jets HC. I think this is more likely. I think his decision on Rex will be based on if he thinks Rex has learned/improved enough, is capable of further growth, and if he is the right man to help develop the talent and lead the young team going forward.
