Former Exec likens Jameis to Jamarcus

Former or current exec, idk. Interesting read anyway:

http://m.jsonline.com/sports/packer...t-jamarcus-russell-b99486128z1-301170101.html

Green Bay — The striking similarities between Jameis Winston and JaMarcus Russell must be frightening to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they weigh making the Florida State quarterback the first pick of the NFL draft.

"With Jameis Winston I see JaMarcus Russell," a longtime executive in personnel said. "They do dumb things. Isn't it interesting?"

Or horrifying, if you're coach Lovie Smith or general manager Jason Licht in Tampa. They know Russell well as the poster child for all-time busts after the Raiders drafted him No. 1 in 2007.

Jimbo Fisher, the Seminoles' head coach during Winston's three-year career, was quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator throughout Russell's four-year career at Louisiana State.

In 22 years of major-college coaching, Fisher's best pro quarterback probably has been former Packers career backup Matt Flynn.

Besides Russell, Fisher prepared Rohan Davey for New England (fourth round) in 2002, Christian Ponder for Minnesota (first round) in 2011 and E.J. Manuel for Buffalo (second round) in 2013. They're failures, too.

Aside from coaching parallels, Winston (6 foot 4, 231 pounds) and Russell (6-5½, 258) share the same type of big, soft bodies and, according to some scouts, the penchant for turning the ball over.

"Lack of focus by JaMarcus is what I see in Winston," the personnel man said. "They're physically talented, but during the course of a game they kind of lose their focus and just put the ball up for grabs.

"I see the body. I see the lack of focus. I see the same coach and system. Only Winston's not as good an athlete and his arm isn't as strong as JaMarcus'."

Russell was done with football after three seasons, a 7-18 record and a passer rating of 65.2.

"We're looking at another guy (Winston) that's a product of the system and has tremendous athletes around him," another personnel man said. "Oh, my goodness.

"Is this guy really going to be the first pick of the draft? You'd be drafting a quarterback that can't run, has off-field problems, has no power in his legs and makes bad decisions on the field.

"Somebody's going to make a horrible mistake."

Since the start of the common draft in 1967, there has been 18 years in which two or more quarterbacks were selected among the first seven picks. In 14 of those years, or 78% of the time, at least one was a bust, and twice two flopped.

All 37 of those quarterbacks entered the league with such high hopes. Sixteen (43.2%) went down as failures.

Winston, of course, isn't the only big-name quarterback. There's always the chance Marcus Mariota of Oregon might go to Tampa Bay. Either way, both should go off among the top seven choices.

The results of a Journal Sentinel survey of 19 NFL executives in personnel this month revealed Winston as much more bust-prone than Mariota.

Scouts were asked to predict what's ahead for the two players. Here were the five categories used to forecast what their careers might hold, and the subsequent responses for each.

All-time great: Mariota one vote, Winston none.

At least one Pro Bowl: Mariota eight, Winston six.

Average starter: Mariota eight, Winston five.

Disappointment: Mariota one, Winston four.

Bust: Mariota one, Winston four.

Of the aforementioned 37 quarterbacks, three already are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and another, Peyton Manning, is headed there.

Nine won at least one Super Bowl. Three others at least led teams to the Super Bowl.

Mariota receives high marks for athleticism, big-play capability, poise and work ethic. Some scouts regard him as something of a project out of the Ducks' spread attack, but at least a few see potential for greatness.

"If somebody works with him for what he does, he'll be an all-time great," one personnel man said. "He can play in a pro-style (offense), but I don't know why you would want him to do that. What he does is proven to be great in this league."

Many other scouts pan the entire group, being even harder on the paucity of even late-round suspects than Winston and Mariota.

The 19 personnel men agreed to list their top five quarterbacks in order (a first-place was worth five points, a second four and so on).

Mariota nipped Winston in points, 85-84, but Winston had the edge in first-place votes, 10-9.

Following, in order, were Bryce Petty (45 points), Brett Hundley (39), Garrett Grayson (19 ½) and Sean Mannion (12 ½).

The fact 19 voters confined their selections to just six players was different, to say the least. It appeared none of the others even are worthy of being drafted.

"After the first two, you're just rolling the dice and hoping you get a backup or something," one scout said. "None of them are any good."

Complicating the study of Winston was his consistent pattern of misbehavior at Florida State that would be considered intolerable for an NFL team set to pay him millions as the new face of the franchise.

In 2012, Winston was accused of raping a student. Declaring himself innocent, he didn't face criminal charges.

He also was cited for shoplifting $32 worth of crab legs from a supermarket in Tallahassee, Fla., was involved in BB gun incidents and was suspended one game for standing on a table in a university dining hall and screaming a lewd phrase.

At pro day March 31 in Tallahassee, Winston introduced the 17 teammates that would be auditioning with him before dozens of scouts.

"People were saying, 'Oh, he's a leader,'" said one personnel director. "But it was more of a, 'Hey-look-at-me-kind-of-thing,' as opposed to something good for his teammates.

"I just don't like his whole makeup, his whole salesman act. He's all about himself."

Another scout brought it back to Russell, saying, "He's got that same smile that JaMarcus had. They light the room up. That's what Jameis seems to be doing."

Unlike most top quarterbacks in recent years, Winston helped himself a month earlier by participating in throwing drills. The same day, he hurt himself with a slow 40-yard dash (4.96 seconds) and both a vertical jump (28 ½ inches) and broad jump (8-7) that ranked second worst among quarterbacks.

On the field, however, Winston lost just one of 27 starts, becoming the youngest winner of the Heisman Trophy in 2013 and producing a string of dramatic comeback victories with what some scouts view as remarkable competitiveness.

"He doesn't have all-time great talent, but he's just clutch," a personnel man said. "He's pro ready. It's clear-cut to me Winston's the best quarterback in this draft, talent-wise."

Now Lovie Smith and Co. must make a decision that, if it's wrong, probably will get them all fired.

•••

UNSUNG HERO
Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion: Four-year starter, three-year captain and record-setting producer. Helped lead Monarchs into Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and Conference USA last season. Game manager with a dink-and-dunk arm. Impressive athlete.

SCOUTS' NIGHTMARE
Brandon Bridge, South Alabama: Started at Alcorn State in 2010, lost his job and ended up spending 2013-'14 at South Alabama. Throws lasers but has almost no touch. Wild, athletic prospect needs a ton of refinement. Does any team have that much time?

PACKERS' PICK TO REMEMBER
Joe Francis, Oregon State: Drafted in the fifth round in 1958. Nickname was "Pineapple Joe" because of his Hawaiian ancestry. Served as No. 3 behind Babe Parilli and Bart Starr as a rookie, and stuck as No. 3 behind Starr and Lamar McHan under new coach Vince Lombardi in 1959. Two-year career statistics included 20 completions in 49 attempts for 266 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions.

QUOTE TO NOTE
NFL personnel executive: "You've got to take quarterbacks. Seattle's the best example of keep trying. They traded for guys, they brought in guys. Then they finally hit one (Russell Wilson) in the third round and now they're all kingmakers."

Bob McGinn