The proof is going to be in the pudding, but there ARE reasons to be optimistic about Geno Smith this season. In addition to the various new offensive weapons the team has, the upgraded defense will almost certainly generate more takeaways this season versus last year. This will take some additional pressure off of Geno Smith, as it will give him a little more margin of error compared to last year. I'm hoping this helps him focus better, and not rush into making bad decisions in the pocket.
Reasons for optimism: - Geno Smith went 3-10 as a starting QB last year, with 7 (should have been 8) of the losses coming in 1 score games. These close defeats were due in large part to red zone futility; the Jets had a 36.17% TD conversion rate in the red zone, by far the worst in the NFL. The team added Brandon Marshall, whose 31 TD receptions over the last 3 seasons are top 5 for all NFL players over that span. He also retains WR Eric Decker, who has 29 TD's over that stretch despite only having 5 last year. Throughout his career, Geno has been an adequate QB advancing the ball between the 20s, but atrocious at finishing drives with scores. With the 6' 4" Marshall, 6' 3" Decker and 6' 6" Amaro, he has no excuses for not significantly improving in the red zone this year. - Geno did not work with a short field very often last year; the Jets had the 7th worst average starting field position, at the 27.72 yard line. This was in large part due to a league worst number in both takeaways (13) and interceptions (6). By contrast, free agent additions Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine and Marcus Gilchrist combined for 10 interceptions last season. The poor starting field position can also be explained by the defense's inability to get off the field on 3rd down; the 45.2% 3rd down conversion rate allowed was the 3rd worst mark in the NFL. Hopefully an improved secondary can dramatically decrease passing efficiency on the money down and generate more turnovers. Any QB is better when operating with a short field. - Brian Winters was absolutely atrocious, finding himself as Pro Football Focus' 74th ranked guard out of 75 qualifiers. With O'day Aboushi in the starting lineup, Geno's stat line significantly improved (Weeks 7 and on): 110/176, 62.5% comp., 1,386 yards, 7.88 Y/A, 7 TD/6 INT for an 86.03 passer rating. This includes the abomination vs Buffalo; obviously it's unreasonable to remove his worst game from calculation, but if you discount it as a statistical aberration (just for shits and giggles) his passer rating in 7 games with Aboushi is 128.6. (Don't harp on this stat too much, it's insane to remove the Buffalo game.) - Geno saw significant improvement from his rookie year in completion percentage (55.8 -> 59.7) and touchdown % (2.7 -> 3.5) and reductions in interception % (4.7 -> 3.5) and sack % (8.8 -> 7.1). At least he improved; making solid strides towards league average marks. His 16 game pace was 3,358 yards and 17 TD/17 INTs, which aren't too far off of the numbers I think this team needs from a QB to be a playoff caliber team. Last year, Andy Dalton almost led the Bengals to a division title (in a very good division) with 3,398 yards, 19 TD/ 17 INT. I think the Jets have a similar construction to that Cincy team. For the record: I could just as easily make a list this expansive and long about "reasons to be pessimistic about geno smith this year", but I'll stay on topic with the thread . If someone starts such a thread, I'll gladly and objectively detail the other side of this. I just wanted to present some decent numbers to invoke optimism; we deserve it with how often our quarterback situation is publicly ridiculed. Also, this post is hypocritical on my part, as I've previously stated to others that pro-Geno arguments should avoid statistics because of how bad most of his numbers are. Oh well. I'd like to make an extensive breakdown of the pros and cons from his play last year using all - 22 screenshots from NFL Game Rewind but it's extremely time consuming and I'm starting my summer job this week. I may make an attempt at it this weekend.
If he doesn't freaking hog the ball for 4+ seconds, we may actually see improvement in Geno's game. I see no reason to be optimistic until that aspect of his game improves.
Here's an article that came out today with source's declaring that the competition is very much open and Geno is NOT a predetermined starter barring injury http://touch.metro.us/kristian-dyer...rick-a-fluid-situation/zsJofB---BLE5WhoHiKaI/ I like that. Despite everything I listed in favor of Geno, I'm so much more comfortable with Fitz. Defending Geno relies on a bunch of hypotheticals and "with __ in the lineup" and "with the addition of __". Whereas Fitz had the 9th best passer rating in the NFL last year. Period. Can't argue it. Geno is very much boom or bust and Fitz is much less of an unknown. While I can't say who I want to start for sure until I see the competition unfold, the uncertainty makes me a lot more comfortable with Fitz, despite my guarded optimism for Geno.
The primary reason to be optimistic about Geno Smith this year is that his overall performance was slightly better in 2014 than 2013. How much of that was an improvement in the supporting cast is not clear but he now has better support for 2015 than he had in 2014. It's not a lot to go on. He still has to do it. If he's still having problems after a couple of starts the Jets are going to be in a very tough position. Every start they give him makes the investment deeper. If that investment is not paying off, well it probably makes sense to sell sooner rather than later.
