Looking into the JETS crystal ball!

01/12/2007 12:59 PM ET
Looking into the Jets' crystal ball
Where did the team go wrong, and how can they improve
By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv

D'Brickashaw Ferguson has not yet lived up to the hype, but still has time to show he's a star next season. (AP)



The Jets' pleasantly surprising season looked like it had wings Sunday in New England, but they lost lift with a very stupid, all-risk, no-reward lateral screen that handed the dagger to the playoff assassin that is Tom Brady. The rapid descent into postseason oblivion was punctuated by another rainbow throw from Chad Pennington that the Pats turned into a Pick 6.
So now it's time to look ahead by first looking back coldly and objectively at what transpired, assessing strengths and weaknesses and recommending a course of action for 2007 and beyond.

How good was this team? The question seems trite but it's essential that we answer it if we're to get a real sense of how much work needs to be done, personnel wise, heading into the summer. So, let's compare it first to the last Jets playoff team, the 2004 squad helmed by Herm Edwards.

Eric Mangini's bunch suffers by the comparison. In the 14 meaningful statistical categories that the NFL tracks, the 2006 Jets ranked higher than the 2004 Jets in only one offensive and one defensive category. These categories are extremely important, third-down efficiency and yards allowed per pass attempt, but so are many of the others where the 2006 Jets fell far short.

The 2004 Jets also were much better in most of the key stats that I track, the exceptions being net yards per pass attempt (2006 Jets 12th, 2004 Jets 13th) and net third-down efficiency (2006 Jets 4th, 2004 Jets 9th).

What's alarming about this is how the 2004 Jets crashed in 2005. Injuries were a huge factor here. But are the 2006 Jets, the healthiest team in the NFL, due for some bad luck in that area next year? Coaches and general managers are funny in how they attribute a rash of injuries to bad luck and the absence of them to training or other factors in their control. That's human nature. We take credit for good fortune and curse fate when things go sour. Expect the Jets to have to overcome some significant injuries in 2007.

The player Most Likely to Get Hurt this year, Chad Pennington, sailed through the season unscathed. And he's the key to assessing the 2007 team. Is Pennington capable of being a championship QB off the two major shoulder surgeries?

He says he's all the way back. But the stats say otherwise. His arm appeared to tire as the season progressed. His ability to throw intermediate passes disintegrated, going from above average the first third to average the second third to awful down the stretch.

In 2002, the last time he was otherwise healthy and not dealing with shoulder problems or recovery, he was 61 of 96 on 11-to-20 yard passes for 1066 yards with five TDs and two picks. That's a sparkling 110 QB rating. And those intermediate throws represent 24 percent of total attempts (NFL average is about 20). This year, however, Pennington was 52 of 99 on intermediate throws for 931 yards with four TDs and six picks (a 73 QB rating and just 20 percent of total attempts).

The receivers this year were as good as those in 2002. Coles is still Coles. Cotchery/McCareins performed about as well as Chrebet/Moss did in '02. Perhaps the offense wasn't as well designed as in 2002, but that seems unlikely given the regard people have for young offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. So we must conclude that, barring continued shoulder improvements nearly two years after the last surgery, Pennington's lack of arm strength is a major obstacle to any serious playoff/championship aspirations.

I sense that Mangini and the rest of his staff knows this and that's the reason why he insists the QB job will be an open competition in 2007. I would be surprised but not shocked if second-year man Kellen Clemens, extremely well regarded coming out of the 2006 draft, emerged as a surprise starter next September.

The Jets can certainly afford to keep Pennington around even if they're flirting with Clemens as the starter. They have only one significant player, journeyman starting right tackle Anthony Clement, eligible for free agency. With Curtis Martin finally off the books, they have $28 million in salary cap room. So they can be major players in free agency. But singing big-name guys and wining and dining players was frowned upon at Belichick University. Don't expect the Jets to make a major splash in free agency, focusing instead on signing lesser-known, versatile, team-oriented players that have football smarts and fit their system.

The Jets also shrewdly acquired the 37th pick in the upcoming draft via trade with the Redskins last April. They retain their first-round pick, 25th overall. These are very valuable because they come in at a relatively low cost and are generally easy to sign. With high first-round draft picks, you get all the risk involved with projecting college prospects, but pay to sign these players as if the risk did not exist. Economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler studied the draft a couple of years ago and determined that picks increase in value relative to signing cost as you go down the first and into the second round. So that 37th overall pick is NFL gold.

Did the Jets get their money's worth this year out of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, who was competent but far from dominant as a rookie? Likely not, and they paid dearly for him. He must improve in all facets if he's going to become anything close to the player that NFL scouts and the Jets envisioned last April. Remember, however, that, as Massey and Thaler conclusively proved, NFL scouts and general managers are mostly very wrong when it comes to projecting college prospects.

Now, what should the priorities be in personnel? The conventional wisdom is that the Jets must acquire a workhorse running back, enabling them to slide Leon Washington back into a situational role. But this ignores the possibility, albeit a small one, that Washington could become a Brian Westbrook-type of player in a more expanded role.

More importantly, however, it ignores the incontrovertible fact that running backs are the most overpaid players in the NFL. I examined nearly 40 statistical categories between 2004 and 2006 to determine how they correlated to winning. Yards gained per rushing attempt finished 30th on my list and even overall rushing yards in 2006 was last, with the top 10 teams in the category winning, on average, just under 52 percent of their games.

You need to throw to win in the NFL. And it's an offensive, not a defensive game. If you finish top 10 in TD pass percentage the last three years, you can expect to win 67 percent of your games. The top 10 in offensive yards per attempt clock in at 65 percent wins during this most recent, three-year stretch.

So, the Jets must improve in these key stat categories either by hoping that Pennington improves on the tougher, money NFL throws, replacing him with Clemens or improving an already solid wide receiving corps.

Defensively, the Jets did quite well in the preventing touchdown passes, the most important defensive stat by far the last three years. The cornerbacks are held in low regard by most observers. So, you can argue they're underrated, credit the coaching or attribute the solid stats to a schedule littered sub-par passing opponents, especially in the second half of the season. To be safe, assume the latter played a major role and hope the Jets make major upgrades in the defensive backfield.

The defensive line is another area that needs to be addressed. Shaun Ellis was okay in 2006, but made few impact plays. The Jets got next to nothing out of the other defensive end spot. Expect that to be an off-season priority, as the team badly needs a lineman who can generate consistent pressure on the opposing passer.

So, it's a lot to do and indicative of a team that's very far away from a finished product. The Jets will battle expectations next year. The deck is stacked against them improving, given the likelihood of a tougher schedule and injuries to overcome (where none existed this year except for Curtis Martin, who no one ever expected to play). But the Jets are helmed by young, aggressive and smart people who've learned from the brightest minds in the game and who are not afraid to think outside the box, so crucial to success in what's become a cookie-cutter league. They also have the benefit of a very friendly cap situation and the success enjoyed in their first year, which should make them a more attractive destination for any players they seek.

 

THUNDERBIRD: Pennington's arm faded? The TD pass to Cotch looked pretty crisp to me. Geeze, everyone knows Chad doesn't have a storng arm. This is insightful? He makes it sound like Pennington had no right to start all 16 games. He should have been injured. Talk about negative spin.



The pass traveled about 6 yards and COTCHERY did the rest. Lets be fair and objective. We call the writer names but then unfairly state misinformation.