Someone long ago on some NFL films segment or some such said something that rang true and stuck with me: "The quality of the Head Coach sets the team's floor, and the quality of the Quarterback sets the team's ceiling". The Jets sure could use a new floor.
Signing implies they’ve already had a HOF level career. They’ve done it twice with QB’s and once with a head coach. The HC got us closer to winning a SB. Granted that season the QB play was phenomenal and the coach brought his workhorse RB with him, but I’ll take my chances with the coach almost every time given this teams history. A tougher question might be “if you could choose a coach or a QB to have a HOF career with the Jets, which would you choose”. One often goes hand in hand with the other. A QB can have a HOF level career in 10 seasons (as can a coach), but the coach is more likely to still be coaching effectively for 10, 15, or 20 years vs. a QB whose physical skills will decline and who will always be at risk of injury. Since good to great QB play is a hallmark of championship teams, and championships are assumed to be part of a HOF level coaches resume, we’d be assured of having at least good QB play if the coach has a HOF level career with the Jets.
Kinda need both. Probably a HoF HC first, then QB. How many times have we said "It wouldn't matter if the Jets drafted (fill in the blank), our coaching staff would ruin him". But then there's only so far any HC can go with say a Zack Wilson under center, so in the end, we need both. But if can only have one, take the QB I guess.
If it's a Hall of Fame quarterback that we draft and he plays his entire 15-year career with us, then I'm taking the quarterback... because if he gets into the Hall of Fame he was pretty damn good and probably brought us a Super Bowl. The game is so lopsided now that it seems like QB is half the team. A Hall of Fame coach, however, could give us 25 years of consistency, which is something that is difficult to fathom as a Jets fan, so that is tempting too.
The game is WAY lopsided now…to the point where it’s a way too steep uphill battle to play defense anymore, and I would argue the QB is more than half the team. The NFL wants more scoring. And specifically more passing. The Roughing the Passer and Defenseless Receiver rules make it hard for the defense to legally hit the QB and WR…safety is good and I get those rules, but the enforcing is often horrible…way too subjective on the QBs (great QBs get tricky tack calls and worse QBs don’t get calls). They should keep the rule but they should not be calling ticky tack shit. The QB slide is especially bad…how many times have we seen Fields get hit on the way down and no call? Compared to how many times do they call that on bullshit with guys like Allen or Mahomes. The new kickoff rules, combined with the changes to the K balls that are now making 50-60 FG’s pretty much a routine sure thing means that too many times a team only needs like one maybe two first downs and they are in FG range. This game is now about your QB….if you have one, you will be a consistent contender, and if you don’t, you’re out of luck.
Right now the Jets have barely gotten to the point where the old, rotted joists have been removed and replacing them is underway. It's a process. I look forward to the time when a solid subfloor gets put down and only then can we be concerned about laying the final floor. But it will still need to be sanded, stained and finished. We've been looking down so long all we can see is that crappy floor; if we ever get that taken care of only then can we start to look up and see how good the ceiling could look with some new lighting and a fresh coat of paint.
A great QB can win with an average coach a lot easier than a great coach can win with an average QB. Almost every "great" coach has had a top tier QB during their tenure - show me a coach that has had consistent success without a top 10 QB on the roster (in the modern era)?
The example I always give when this kind of thing comes up is the Colts: most of 1990s - very little success 1999 - Manning's second year - 13-3 record and win division - are successful with winning records pretty much every year after that - coach changes from Mora to Dungy - no change in the results 2009 - coach changes again from Dungy to Caldwell - the Colts continue to win 2011 - Manning is injured - the Colts go from a winning season the year before to 2-14 2012- Colts draft Luck and they are straight back to winning seasons every year (another change of coach) 2017 - Luck is out for the season - Colts go 4-12 2018 - Luck returns and straight back to a winning season
Using the leagues entire history of SB winning coaches and QB’s, taking the coach gives you better odds of winning a SB at the moment. You’re correct, the coach will most likely have a top tier QB. They’ll win more than they lose, and they’ll win at least 1 Super Bowl 92% of the time (26/28 won a SB). For HOF QB’s that number is closer to 80%, maybe lower. That’s because there are more than twice as many HOF QB’s who never won a SB than there are HOF coaches who haven’t. Guys have thrown 40+ TD’s in a season dating back to 1984, so airing it out is nothing new even if the rules have changed. First guy to do it was Dan Marino, who kinda kicked off the mind blowing statistics age of QB’s. He’s a HOF QB (who had a HOF coach) and he has as many rings as Bryce Petty. TLDR: Stats alone can lead to a HOF QB career. Coaches almost certainly have to win a Super Bowl or 2.
See if Belicheat can make a half-decent backup out of Zach Wilson. Ah. He's fucking up pretty hard in UNC already. I rest my case.
I think the use of the term HOF is confusing the matter - the question should be "would you rather have an elite HC or an elite QB" and in every case I would rather have an elite QB because an elite QB makes an average coach look great, an elite coach does not make an average QB look great - elite QBs do not suddenly drop off a cliff when they move teams (e.g. Brady to the Bucs or Manning to Denver) but supposedly elite coaches cannot win if the elite QB goes down injured.
Brady is an outlier in almost every way imaginable. Manning dropped off a cliff in 2015 and was carried to that Super Bowl by the defense and running game. Parcels won with Jeff Hostetler. Hell even Doug Pederson managed to win with Nick Foles. I get both sides of the argument. I’m going with the statistics, because if any team needs that extra 12% chance it’s the Jets.
The answer is head coach every time. Stafford leaves the Lions and wins the Super Bowl the very next year. Dan Campbell makes those same Lions contenders Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Geno Smith improved significantly under proper coaching Both Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh were able to find playoff success with Alex Smith Mike Tomlin went to the playoffs with Kenny Pickett throwing 6 tds all season. Both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields looked serviceable under Tomlin. Next season on different teams they look like absolute ass. Rodgers went 4-12 last year with us. He's 4-1 right now with Tomlin. There are a lot more instances of Head Coaches being successful and winning the Super Bowl with lackluster QBs than the other way around.
(probably not) my final word - especially in today's modern NFL - Baltimore Ravens 2025: With Lamar Jackson - opening game - put up 40 points on the Bills - game 2 - put up 41 points on the Browns - game 3 - put up 30 points on the Lions - game 4 - Jackson is injured during the game - put up 20 points Without Lamar Jackson - game 5 - put up 10 points - game 6 - put up 3 points Since 2018 Baltimore is 4-11 (.363) when Jackson hasn't played (Harbaugh has been the HC throughout). A good HC is important but no HC can overcome losing a star QB.
Times HC lost star qb to win super bowl: Carson Wentz was having an MVP year until he gets injured. Eagles win the super bowl with Nick Foles Drew Bledsoe goes down, 2nd year Tom Brady wins the super bowl Phil Simms goes down, Jeff Hostetler goes 5-0 and wins the super bowl Trent Green tears his ACL in the preseason. Journeyman AFL player Kurt Warner finishes the season to win the super bowl
