I responded to someone else in another thread that is now buried who referenced this article with the following. What's the point of narrowing this down to passes of 20 yards or longer? The object is to score points, right? Over the past 4 seasons Favre has thrown 34 more TD passes than Pennington and 7 less INT's than TD passes. Pennington has thrown 8 less INT's than TD passes. Every INT does not lead to 7 points by the other team, especially when the INT is further down field. I have no idea what the percentage is of interceptions turning into points by the other team. Let's say for sake of argument that 80% of the time an interception turns into points for the other team and of those scores 75% of the time it's a TD. I would guess that I'm being more than generous with these percentages in favor of the guy who throws fewer INT's. Favre: 79 TD passes, 72 INT's Pennington: 45 TD passes, 37 INT's ------------------------------------- Favre 79 TD passes * 7 = 553 points 72 INT's * .8 ~= 58 scores 58 * .75 ~= 44 TD's against * 7 = 308 points 58 * .25 ~= 14 FG's against * 3 = 42 points 308 + 42 = 350 points 553 points - 350 points = 203 points Net gain: 203 points -------------------------------------- Penny 45 TD passes * 7 = 315 points 37 INT's *.8 ~= 30 scores 30 * .75 ~= 23 TD's against * 7 = 161 points 30 *.25 ~= 7 FG's against * 3 = 21 points 161 + 21 = 182 points 315 points - 182 points = 133 points Net gain: 133 points --------------------------------------- 203 points > 133 points. Favre is responsible for a net gain of 70 more points than Pennington. That's more than 50% of the total net gain Pennington was responsible for. I would be willing to bet that less than 80% of INT's turn into points. I would also be willing to bet that less than 75% of those points are TD's. I wish I could find some concrete numbers to plug in here. Maybe someone else can help me out in finding these figures. I'd be very interested in seeing the actual results. You can take your safe little INT total and pretty quarterback rating, I'll take the big, manly TD total and a bunch of points. Who's going to win?
yet another chad fan b4 jet fan. wow 2 years ago i remember...wait.... did we win or even go to the super bowl that year? no we didnt so who gives a shit chad had a decent game. guess you're going to say chad can throw the deep ball just like favre because that one time he hit santana moss deep? cant wait to taste some of those pick 6's chad serves up.
All he is pointing out is a correct stat on long balls. This stat has been posted for a while now. It doesn't mean Chad is better than Brett(thoigh '02--'04 pre shoulder surgery he was alot better) just better on the long balls which isn't surprising b/c Chad doesn't take alot of chances and threw it deep 108 times compared to 290 for favre so Chad throws it deep when something is there, favre does it to take a shot. This is not Eart shattering news but opf course we read a misguided headline on this board and then people realize the blogger wrote for the phins and it must be a conspiracyhmy:
If Brett gets up to spped and plays like he did last year I'm sure we can be better BUT stop w/ the pick 6 nonsense. Chad had 2 in his career(1 in garbage time) prior to last year where he played on 2 torn ligaments in his ankle and w/ a brutal OL. Go check Favre's INts retruend for TDs and let me know what you find. If you don't think yopu are going to see alot of INTs this year you havenb't paid attention to favre, hopefully there's alot more TDs b/c he goes downfield and takes more chances but he will throw alot of INTs- this is something we all need to realize and not jump on him when in game 1 or 2 he has 2-3 picks.
In four years Favre's long balls accounted for 245 Pts. and Chads for 91 pts. I'm not sure what the problem is?
When i read the title, my first thought was: Another Idiot writing a story only based on some numbers.
yes favre has thrown for ints, i never said he didn't, but he also throws more tds. if you honestly think this team has a better chance to win with chad than favre you're a fool and should just be a fins fan. favre > chad i dont see what the problem is.
I don't know if we'll be better, I know we'll be more exciting. if Brett cna play like he did last year we'll definitely be better but that's 1 year and now he's a yera older and has to get down a new system in about a month. if you think this will all be a smooth transition and there are no worries then you need to look in the mirror at the fool. I hope everything works out and it's an exciting time but nothing is guaranteed and we would have been good w/ Chad so we better be really good w/ Favre.
you dont get it. of course it's going to be tough for favre to learn our system in such a short amount of time, but its not just his performance im talking about when i say we're better with him. there will not be anymore 8-9 in the box 90% of the game with favre behind center because he can stretch the defense, having favre improves our ground attack. running the ball better gives us more top thus not having our defense be on the field so long and have so much pressure on them. also we should be able to put up more points. and if favre puts up only half the tds he did last year, it's still more than chad did.
and im not so sure we would have been that good with chad, see above, chad doesnt bring any of that to the team.
Its been while for me to be able to sit in a chair and be comfortable with the QB situation and how the offense will be run. 2004 was the last time I could do this.
I absolutely understand, the point is it's not a slam dunk. This could end up being a stroke of genius or a disaster. We don't know yet. There's alot of work to be done to get Brett up to speed.
Since Pennington's shoulder injury in 04, 05, 06 and 07 Chad has 29 TD's and 28 INT's on a lot less throws then Favre. In the same 3 year period Favre has 66 TD's and 62 INT's a slightly better TD to Int % than Chad. If you want to compare Chad's best year since his shoulder surgery 06 to Favre's best years since Chad's shoulder surgery last year the numbers for Chad are 17 TD's to 16 Int's and for Favre 28 TD's to 15 INT's. Chad has not been productive producing TD since his shoulder surgery and his INT's to TD ratio is worse than Favre's in the same period.
How does Chad's best season (2006, I guess) since the injury comapre to Favre's worst? (2005, maybe?)
Pennington of 2002-04 was better than Favre of 2002-4? 2002: Pennington - 3,120 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT Favre - 3,658 yards, 27 TD, 16 INT 2003: Pennington - 2,139 yards, 13 TD, 12 INT Favre - 3,361 yards, 32 TD, 21 INT 2004: Pennington - 2,673 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT Favre - 4,088 yards, 30 TD, 17 INT Pennington might have had a bit better stats in that one fluke season of 2002, but to say that Pennington was a better QB in 2002-04... Are you still missing Hermy? hmy:
If any GM was given the trade Favre for Chad straight up (which this almost was in a way) -- I think every single GM makes the trade. I am a big Chad fan. When healthy -- he was very productive and won. BUT he cant stay on the field, his arm stregth has gotten worse -- he used to NEVER get picked off in the red zone and even that has changed.
