Hey what's up y'all. I wanted to get some biased opinions on the opener vs. the Fins. A buddy at work (Dolphin fan) bet me $100 yesterday on the Jets v Fins in week 1. Just straight up-no points. I'm not second guessing my decision or anything... 16 out 20... 7 of 8...4 in a row. Anybody think I am screwed? If so don't mention this post to my wife-Whoa.
Jets 200 Dolphins 0 Brett Favre throws for 17TDs and scrambles for 100yds. Jets vs. a Hurricane but the hurricanes name is Favre?
Chad may know our defense but are DBs also know how to read him. Now they will get to see what it feels like to be able to put eight in the box. I'm predicting two Ints from Chad. Rhodes will be licking his chops. I'm more afraid of Ricky Williams than I am anything else. Their defense will be lacking the fear facture with Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor. They are lacking any true #1 WR or TE threat. Chad will still be learing the playbook so they will have limited number of plays. Also they have a new rookie kicker which is big for special teams. Our DL and OL are much better and we are even or better in every position. I say your money is safe unless Coles gets twitterpated when he sees Chad across the field.
I would agree but I think you are forgetting a couple things: Favre will cure cancer, solve the world hunger problem, and go back in time to win a gold medal in being awesome. Chad will contract rabies in the second quarter and Parcells will have to send him to a farm upstate where he can run freely through fields of noodles.
you forgot, he reunites the remaining Beatles for a world tour while training for the first manned flight to Mars.
Sorry to crap on the party but while I truly think we will blow out the Dolphins (31 - 9), there is 1 thing that I can't stop thinking about.... Parcells first game as NYJ HC takes up to Seattle and we lay an ass whipping 45-7. Now I know Parcells ain't coaching the 'Phins but I can't help to worry. Of course I was worried the Colts were coming back on us after halftime in the Playoff game when were up 28-0.... I'll take what Lou Holtz said about always playing a game with some butterflies in your stomach...it keeps you from getting over confident.
Those stats like "16 out of the last 20" are completely meaningless and useless stats when it comes to betting. Teams, coaches, players come in and out, so what happened 4-5 years ago is completely not relevant when you're looking at Week 1, especially considering we're a totally different team. With that said, your buddy's bet isn't all that bad. Vegas as of the moment has us 3 point dogs and -105 if you take us moneyline. So your buddy is actually getting an extra $5 of value by betting with you rather than a bookie. I've been picking 58% in the NFL and 59% in the NBA for the past 10 years and I bet on every single game that doesn't involve the Dolphins or Lakers. What got me over the hump 52-53% range to beat the rake was a pretty good understanding of how Vegas manipulates the public's perception of games and I think that's exactly what they're doing in this case. Public Perception of Miami: 1-15 crap team that just gutted the roster(JT,ZT) and is playing without Ronnie Brown. Public Perception of NYJ: Made FA splashes and acquired a HOF QB with a rocket arm .... Yet the line is only NYJ -3? The public will hammer the shit out of NYJ -3 so I'd stay the hell away from this game.
You get 3 points for being at home, so on neutral ground the Jets are about a touchdown favorite. Sounds about right betting wise.
It's not a static 3 points though, according to the Vegas employees I have talked to anyway. In fact Miami is one of the lowest rated home teams when it comes to spotting points even when the team is good.
I've looked around and can't find any data of how the money is coming in. Hopefully in the next week or so we'll have some numbers to work with. My guess is the money will come in anywhere from 70-30 to 80-20 on NYJ. Then depending on how the line behaves we may be getting a clearer picture. Stays still or even moves to +2.5 Miami Vegas clearly thinks Miami is the right side. Moves from NYJ -3 to -4 or -4.5 then Vegas is in the "ok we're not so sure about this let's force the public on one side idea, lets just even it out a bit to reduce risk and take the rake" mode
Also, one tactic that I've found extremely useful when picking a side is to put yourself in the shoes of the bookies and set the line before you see their official line. Q: "If I'm encouraging 50-50 action, what do I set this line as". They do this on 90% of the games for two reasons: 1. The rake will kill you if you're picking 50%. Flip a coin on every single game and they'll eventually have your money because of the rake. 2. 99.9% of the public doesn't have the bankroll management to beat them. I.E you have $1000 to spend and bet $100 a game. You could be picking 65% yet they'll still beat you in the long haul cause their bankroll is infinite and yours is suspect to bad streaks which you will eventually hit. In rare cases, they feel so strong about an outcome that they drop the 50-50 idea and force the general public on one side of an outcome. If you're the bookie setting the line for this game do you set it at -3 thinking the money is going to come in even? Nope. Probably somewhere around the -6.5 to -7 range.
Your money SHOULD be safe as the Jets SHOULD win the game. I'd be more worried about the heat factor and the humidity over Ricky pothead Williams.......if the defense can stay off the field and avoid a couple of long first half drives the game shouldn't be close.....
