Reviewing Jets? Offensive Line: Mangold Is a Surprise

WhiteShoeWillis · Mar 27, 2009

One of the central studies I will be doing for every team in Scientific Football 2009 is a thorough look at run blocking metrics. I track a variety of metrics on every rushing play, but from an individual player analysis standpoint, two metrics are key: Point of Attack (POA) block win percentage and Yards Per Attempt (YPA).

The full method for putting these metrics together is a bit too long for this format (it is fully explained in Scientific Football 2006 and will be covered in detail again in SF 2009), but in a nutshell what I am looking for is which offensive players were blocking which defensive players at the point of attack of the run.

For example, when a team runs the ball, I don?t just track which side of the line the run was made. I also track what type of play was run (i.e. off-tackle, trap, sweep, dive, etc.) and what hole the runner went through. I then review whose blocks were responsible for creating the hole (or not creating the hole, whichever is appropriate) and how many yards were gained on the play.

These studies always yield interesting data, some of which is expected and some not. For example, I just completed Jets blocking metrics, and while we all knew that Nick Mangold had a great 2008 campaign (he was a Pro Bowl alternate), would you believe he had the best numbers of any of the Jets linemen? Check it out:

POA win percentage:

1. Mangold 94.3%

2. Woody 89.5%

3. Faneca 87.8%

4. Ferguson 86.7%

5. Moore 85.4%

YPA

1. Woody 6.4

2. Mangold 6.1

3. Moore 5.8

4. Faneca 5.4

5. Ferguson 4.9

That Mangold graded out so well is a double shock in that centers are usually the weak link of an offensive line and yet he is the strength of this group.

Another way to illustrate just how good the Jets? O line run metrics were is to put them in perspective with the rest of the league. I can?t do that just yet for the 2008 season since the tape breakdown process is still ongoing for Scientific Football 2009, but I can offer some rules of thumb from the run blocking metrics from Scientific Football 2006.

For example, in that season the highest POA success rating for any center was the 91.2% posted by Dennis Norman of Jacksonville. That is one way to illustrate just how dominant Mangold?s 94.3% win rating really is, but also consider that the median POA win rate for centers that year was 78.5%. In other words, if that trend continues for the 2008 ratings, Mangold will have a win rate 16% higher than the average center.

Another item I track is the number of pull blocks each lineman does. In this case, I am not measuring whether or not the pull block was actually used at the point of attack but rather gauging the volume of pulls.

It should come as no surprise that Faneca led the team in this category with 62. What does come as a bit of a surprise is that that in the 2005 ratings, that figure would have placed 13th. That goes a ways in showing that the Jets didn?t lean on any one area of O line play for their rushing success.

Another stat that illustrates this is the run type distribution for New York, a portion of which is detailed below:

Counter ? 56 rushes, 288 yards, 5.1 YPA

Draw ? 30 rushes, 123 yards, 4.1 YPA

Slant ? 104 rushes, 494 yards, 4.8 YPA

What is impressive about these totals is that it shows the Jets? O line was capable of doing every type of block well. The counter play is a man blocking smashmouth play, the draw requires a certain level of finesse and the slant calls for a coordinated blocking effort by all five linemen. New York?s YPA in each of these shows that they were adept in every area. That is a rare trait and it is why, in my view, the Jets offensive line was second maybe only to the Giants in overall run blocking prowess last year. It also indicates that Rex Ryan shouldn?t have any trouble leaning on this area of the team in 2009.
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http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/reviewing-jets-offensive-line-mangold-is-a-surprise/

MBGreen · Mar 27, 2009

interesting stuff there, WSW.

I, for one, am glad we finally have some O-line consistency...and it defenitly showed last season. Whatever Callahan is teaching these guys...is worth its weight in gold. What a turnaround from 2007.

The dunce that posted that we were in a "rebuild" mode in the Pettigrew thread should read this.

cxhannan · Mar 27, 2009

This is one area on the offense everyone should feel comfortable about.

GBA · Mar 27, 2009

I'm not really surprised.. I think Mangold has clearly shown he's one of the best and most valuable players on the team.

ibleedgreen7476 · Mar 27, 2009

Mangold is a man beast, we all knew it, this just proves it.

savinoRB2 · Mar 27, 2009

ibleedgreen7476 said: ↑

Mangold is a man beast, we all knew it, this just proves it.
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so is his sister

tpjets62 · Mar 27, 2009

Its been clear that Mangold was a great pick from day one. But it also reinforces the thought of keeping our O-Line intact because everyone on the line and the offense will benefit.

Tenn_JetsFanatic · Mar 27, 2009

Very interesting ..... good stuff

Bricket-head · Mar 27, 2009

cxhannan said: ↑

This is one area on the offense everyone should feel comfortable about.
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I'm not... We have no depth on the line. If one of these guys goes down God forbid, the Jets are fucked.

MBGreen · Mar 27, 2009

Bricket-head said: ↑

I'm not... We have no depth on the line. If one of these guys goes down God forbid, the Jets are fucked.
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+1

the depth on the oline is certainly a concern.

Killeri9590 · Mar 27, 2009

MBGreen said: ↑

+1

the depth on the oline is certainly a concern.
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Hopefully we draft 2 o-line guys in the draft.

........ · Mar 27, 2009

Great post, and I wholeheartedly agree with the lack of depth issue. I'm hoping for a guard in the 3rd or 4th and a later tackle at the very least.

Bricket-head · Mar 27, 2009

IgnatiusJReilly said: ↑

Great post, and I wholeheartedly agree with the lack of depth issue. I'm hoping for a guard in the 3rd or 4th and a later tackle at the very least.
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A guy I was looking at that could probably be had in the 4th was T.J. Lang from Eastern Michigan... He can supposedly play any position on the line which would be great for our needs.

pats-hater · Mar 27, 2009

this is why i have a mangold jersey and wear to every game..

mangold is a phenomenal center, an anchor on this line.

he is easily my favorite player.

mst3000 · Mar 27, 2009

savinoRB2 said: ↑

so is his sister
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Really?? Seriously?? You have to bring his poor sister into this?? Can't you guys just leave her alone already??!

Sorry, I just couldn't help myself :breakdance:

bigalxc · Mar 27, 2009

tpjets62 said: ↑

Its been clear that Mangold was a great pick from day one. But it also reinforces the thought of keeping our O-Line intact because everyone on the line and the offense will benefit.
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Mangold has been awesome from draft day. With Nick and D'Brickshaw coming into the league together we have lots of contintuatity. Hopefully we can keep these 2 together for a long time

puddnhead · Mar 27, 2009

It may be a surprise to you, but not to me. Not by a long shot. There's a reason (actually many reasons) I picked him for my current avatar. I'm not sure there's anyone I like more on this team, all around. Even Leon.

Sinjz · Mar 27, 2009

Wow, our 'best run blocker' Moore has the worse POA win %, according to this guy. How is that possible? He's 'our best run blocker'!!! :smile:

edit: and Woody, who most of you guys don't think is a good run blocker is 2nd best at POA win % and tops in YPA.

roboz08 · Mar 27, 2009

If only they could pass protect CONSISTENTLY......

BadgerOnLSD · Mar 27, 2009

Sinjz said: ↑

Wow, our 'best run blocker' Moore has the worse POA win %, according to this guy. How is that possible? He's 'our best run blocker'!!! :smile:

edit: and Woody, who most of you guys don't think is a good run blocker is 2nd best at POA win % and tops in YPA.
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People question Woody's pass blocking much more than his run blocking. We all know that our backs ran better behind the right side of the OL.

Reviewing Jets? Offensive Line: Mangold Is a Surprise

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