Which of these 2009 first-round picks is a potential bust? (Click all that apply) 67.6% No. 7 - WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland Raiders) 47.1% No. 1 - QB Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) 41.3% No. 17 - QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 28.8% No. 22 - WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota Vikings) 27.3% No. 5 - QB Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) 23.6% No. 3 - DE Tyson Jackson (Kansas City Chiefs) 18.1% No. 16 - OLB Larry English (San Diego Chargers) 17.7% No. 6 - OT Andre Smith (Cincinnati Bengals) 16.6% No. 31 - RB Chris Wells (Arizona Cardinals) 14.2% No. 12 - RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) 13.9% No. 30 - WR Kenny Britt (Tennessee Titans) 13.0% No. 11 - DE Aaron Maybin (Buffalo Bills) 12.9% No. 29 - WR Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) 11.5% No. 32 - DT Evander Hood (Pittsburgh Steelers) 10.8% No. 19 - WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles) 10.6% No. 25 - CB Vontae Davis (Miami Dolphins) 9.3% No. 27 - RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) 9.1% No. 18 - DE Robert Ayers (Denver Broncos) 8.6% No. 13 - DE Brian Orakpo (Washington Redskins) 8.3% No. 10 - WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) 7.7% No. 14 - CB Malcolm Jenkins (New Orleans Saints) 7.6% No. 20 - TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions) 7.6% No. 15 - OLB Brian Cushing (Houston Texans) 7.6% No. 26 - OLB Clay Matthews (Green Bay Packers) 7.3% No. 28 - C Eric Wood (Buffalo Bills) 7.3% No. 24 - DT Peria Jerry (Atlanta Falcons) 7.0% No. 9 - DT B.J. Raji (Green Bay Packers) 6.2% No. 21 - C Alex Mack (Cleveland Browns) 3.5% No. 23 - OT Michael Oher (Baltimore Ravens) 3.1% No. 2 - OT Jason Smith (St. Louis Rams) 3.0% No. 8 - OT Eugene Monroe (Jacksonville Jaguars) 2.4% No. 4 - OLB Aaron Curry (Seattle Seahawks) http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/ballot?event_id=3823
No. 18 - DE Robert Ayers (Denver Broncos) No. 10 - WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) No. 11 - DE Aaron Maybin (Buffalo Bills) No. 31 - RB Chris Wells (Arizona Cardinals) No. 7 - WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland Raiders) No. 1 - QB Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) No. 17 - QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) No. 22 - WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota Vikings) No. 24 - DT Peria Jerry (Atlanta Falcons)
It seems like he just pulled these numbers out of his ass. It looks like that the percentage chance of a bust is inversely proportional to how high the player was chosen. And he also took into account if the player was considered a "reach" by what position they were on Kiper's draft board. And lastly, he gave any player in a skill position a higher chance to be a bust. Now, I understand the logic behind this reasoning, but I don't think he knows much about the players besides what position they play and where they were on the draft board
How can you include Stafford in the draft bust possibilities and not include Sanchez? Not saying he is a draft bust high possibility or anything but thats just odd.
My gut feeling saying Crabtree will be a bust. Thats just looking at his best plays, nothing spectacular on youtube atleast.
stafford has a 0-16 team with needs everywhere. sanchez is on a team that is good for a young QB to settle into. Sanchez has the lower bust odds due to whats around him. Stafford can get fucked quick if the Lions stay the Lions.
Brady wasn't surrounded with probowlers either but he worked wonders. Ur point is good, but having a superior team may make you look better, but not great. I don't watch college football so don't quote me on this. One of my friend, who watches college football, said Sanchez was in one of the weakest division and thats why he shined. As far as I believe, he had a 66% completion pct. I believe you are a good QB if you can complete two thirds of your passes, especially in a smashmouth type offense. So my thought is, Sanchez may very well be a solid NFL QB.
Add to that the fact that the Lions have no O-Line, and also that Stafford is more of a gunslinger while Sanchez is more of a game manager. I mean, neither is entirely one extreme, but a game manager with a solid OL and running game definitely has smaller bust potential than a gunslinger without any protection and no running game. I'd almost guarantee that Stafford gets David Carr Syndrome if he's left out to dry there in his rookie year. The only things he really has helping him now are Calvin Johnson and now maybe Brandon Pettigrew. I really think they're going to regret passing on Oher for Pettigrew down the line.
They all have the possibility to be a bust..just look at Gholston and the only thing he had to do was make a few tackles every week.
Last year's top three most likely busts: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chris Johnson. What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public.
This was an ESPN SportsNation poll, so this is basically the voice of the fan. Not surprising that the QBs are up near the top. Sanchez's percentage is significantly lower than the other 2 though, for what it's worth. Not surprisingly, O-Linemen make up 4 of the bottom 5.
well the next two on their list, Derrick Harvey and Vernon Gholston.... I mean hey those two have been pretty damn bad. Also I thought Ryan was going to fail miserably last year, i figured the falcons were going to be awful, especially throwing him right in the fire. Obviously i was wrong, but so were a lot of people. Chris Johnson came out of no-where because of his speed, and Flacco was trying to transition from Delaware to the NFL, not exactly an easy transition.
