Our offense is in the bottom 5 in total 3 and outs are our defense is in the top 5 in creating 3 and outs I believe. In 2010 the D created the most 3 and outs in the league. Not sure what the numbers were this year.
good research - scary to see how many we relied on our defense and how much we lack on offense - hopefully O will change under sparano
This is an important post in understanding what the OP numbers mean. Like I said before, without the numbers from other teams it's hard to know what to make of all the work the OP did. I do think you have a couple of errors in your work, but your point remains. First, I think you meant the combination of Holmes and Keller strip-6 scores. Second, I'm not sure how you get to 74 + 14 = 107 - 14? I'm coming up with 88 < 93. A 5 point difference isn't much. Did I overlook something?
Good job. It puts the numbers in context a bit which I am curious to see. I'm gonna do a few more teams when I get some time and post them in here. If a few other posters pick a team or two and post it in the thread it will be interesting to see.
This is from last year- forced 3 and outs http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2011/fo-mailbag-three-and-outs-forced
i can already see it. Shotty is gone, but Mark needs yet another year because... - Hunter at RT - WR rotation - Sparano not a QB OC - Eli almost sucked his 4th year, and everone know that the 5th year is when a young QB matures - MS had just 16 starts in college etc etc
Actually I added in the Holmes in his hands, tip to the defender for a pick also. That was a mistake because I don't believe the opponent scored off of the turnover. You're right the Giants are still on top by 5 points if we remove that one. The point though is that a highly functioning offense on the other side of town that won the Super Bowl only gave up a few TD's or less to the opponent than the Jets offense did. And Sanchez was only responsible for part of that difference. The Giant's offense was functioning much better than the Jets for most of the season but the Giants lost several games because their offense handed the opponents points they were unlikely to get on their own. I think the OP's analysis is largely correct assuming that the offense and the special teams are considered together in the pressure on the defense. It is also important however to note that the defense gave up some highly improbable scores in their own right over the season and those were crippling to the Jets chances also.
I found these to be some interesting numbers. Jets had the 2nd most offensive possessions in the NFL at 198 (Denver led with 199). On average one more possession per game than the league average of 11.4 per game. Thier starting field position on those drives ranked 3rd best in the NFL basically starting at thier own 31 yard line and ranked bottom 5 in yards gained per drive. From the DSR number the O went 3 and out 34.3% of the time. 68 times in 198 possessions. Conversely, on defense the Jets D was on the field for the most possessions against in the NFL with 201. Again one full possession per game above the league average. From the DSR number those 201 possessions against the Jets D resulted in a 3 and out 38.3% of the time. 77 times in 201 possessions. The most 3 and outs in the NFL. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats
Makes sense. Us and Denver were pretty similar...woefully inept offenses(especially in the passing game) and solid defenses. Biggest difference was their pass rush was better. If we're able to figure out how to upgrade our passing game and we have Rex controlling the defense...the team can be very good. We just need to start drafting a hell of a lot better.
Good job, OP If you pick another team, I suggest the Bucs. Freeman is a young QB too and struggled this year as well. He threw 4 more picks than Sanchez and had about as many fumbles.
Great statistical analysis here especially about the offensive 3 & outs BTW, I lay that completely at the feet of Schotty and his ridiculous attempts to outsmart the opposition on 2nd & 3rd & short