These guys know their stuff. They always back up their analysis with the COLD HARD FOOTBALL FACTS. http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=916
We measure the Hogs Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 16, 2006 By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Jonathan Comey The Jets shocked many of us on Planet Pigskin when they passed up quarterbacks Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler in favor of tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson with the No. 4 pick in the 2006 draft. We expected diehard Jets fans to rain down their displeasure from the rafters of Radio City Music Hall. After all, the draft takes place in the heart of Jets country and the team’s fans are normally out in full force. But they didn’t. In fact, Gang Green seemed excited by the prospects of an improved offensive line – even though it meant bypassing super-hyped Heisman-winning quarterback Leinart and putting the season once again on the fragile shoulders of Chad Pennington. The Jets then added another offensive lineman, Ohio State center Nick Mangold, later in the round. Still, fans barely raised a peep. What happened? Shouldn't they have been out for blood? Are Jets fans turning soft? We don’t think so. In fact, we believe Jets fans had studied their Cold, Hard Football Facts and were fully aware that their team had the worst offensive line in football last year. We know the Jets had the worst offensive line in football, thanks to our newest “Stat That Matters,” the Hog Index. (Look for this measure of offensive line play in our Quality Stats section throughout the season.) Offensive line play isn’t easy to figure because linemen don’t score touchdowns, throw passes or record tackles, sacks or interceptions. Instead, they eat prodigious amounts of food, sweat like dirty animals and then anonymously attempt to move as a unified group and clear a path through the mountain of humanity that passes for the opposing defense. How do you put a number on that? Well, we’ve done it. You could certainly argue that the performance of the O-line is the single most important factor in offensive success – more important than Big Name quarterbacks and ballcarriers. Clinton Portis would surely agree. He averaged 5.5 yards a carry each of his two years in Denver. He slipped to 3.8 and 4.3 yards per carry during his last two years in Washington. Did Portis get slower? Dumber? Did he pick up a debilitating disease from a toilet seat at Reagan International? No. The Broncos had a better offensive line. Period. And as aging-before-our-eyes Brett Favre found last year, if the offensive line isn’t doing its job, even John Madden runs out of nice things to say about you. We defined three major responsibilities for the offensive line: opening holes for the ground game protecting the quarterback dominating time of possession A team with a good offensive line is going to do all three of those things well. So we ranked each team in three categories that correspond directly to these responsibilities: Yards per rush. Any team can hand it off 40 times a game and amass yards, but that doesn’t mean the line is opening holes. Yards per carry, however, is a solid indicator of the job an offensive line is doing to clear a path for its ballcarriers. Total sacks + interceptions. Quarterbacks with poor pass protection are more likely to be sacked. They’re also more likely to be forced into making bad passes – passes that result in interceptions. We count both sacks and INTs as a measure of the overall quality of pass protection. Time of possession. Keeping the offense on the field is like having an extra defensive back in the lineup who goes unnoticed by the refs. Time of possession can be a huge benefit to a team, and it’s typically earned up front by the offensive line. Like the talking heads always say, the best defense is a good offense. Hey, even the “pundits” are right once in a while. We could have included Pro Bowl nominations in the mix, but it’s fairly obvious every time Larry Allen goes to Hawaii that the Pro Bowl selection process is shockingly flawed. Whichever team has the best average ranking in the three categories has the best offensive line. We call it the "Hog Index," because here at Cold, Hard Football Facts, we know a thing or two about pork – and we've always got your back if you need protection. On to the rankings. Or, as they say at Arkansas games, “whoo, pig, sooo-eeeee!" Team YPC (Rank) INTs + Sacks (Rank) TOP (Rank) Avg. Rank Denver 4.68 (4) 30 (1) 32:37 (1) 2 Kansas City 4.58 (5) 42 (6t) 32:09 (3) 4.7 Washington 4.16 (10) 42 (6t) 31:33 (5t) 7 Cincinnati 4.16 (9) 35 (3) 30:52 (10) 7.3 San Diego 4.46 (6) 47 (15) 31:34 (4) 8.3 Seattle 4.73 (2) 37 (4) 29:17 (21) 9 N.Y. Giants 4.71 (3) 45 (11t) 30:26 (15) 9.7 Jacksonville 3.80 (20) 38 (5) 31:33 (5t) 10 Pittsburgh 4.05 (12) 46 (13t) 31:16 (8) 11 Atlanta 4.79 (1) 52 (17) 29:58 (20) 12.7 Tennessee 3.84 (19) 45 (11t) 31:13 (9) 13 Carolina 3.44 (29) 44 (10) 30:48 (11) 13.3 Indianapolis 3.66 (24) 31 (2) 30:22 (16t) 14 Miami 4.27 (8) 42 (6t) 27:25 (30) 14.7 Chicago 4.30 (7) 46 (13t) 28:41 (25) 15 Tampa Bay 4.00 (14) 55 (18) 30:45 (13) 15 New Orleans 3.99 (15) 65 (25) 30:32 (14) 18 Dallas 3.57 (26) 67 (27) 32:24 (2) 18.3 New England 3.41 (30) 43 (9) 30:19 (18) 19 Green Bay 3.40 (31) 57 (19) 30:48 (11t) 20.3 St. Louis 4.04 (13) 70 (30t) 30:14 (19) 20.7 Detroit 3.64 (25) 49 (16) 29:13 (22) 21 Cleveland 3.78 (22) 63 (23t) 28:00 (29) 21.3 Philadelphia 3.92 (17) 62 (22) 28:22 (26) 21.7 Arizona 3.16 (32) 66 (26) 31:20 (7) 21.7 Buffalo 3.75 (23) 59 (20t) 29:04 (23) 22 Baltimore 3.55 (27) 63 (23t) 30:22 (16t) 22 Oakland 3.79 (21) 59 (20t) 28:07 (28) 23 Houston 4.16 (11) 81 (32) 28:10 (27) 23.3 Minnesota 3.85 (18) 70 (30t) 28:46 (24) 24 San Francisco 3.95 (16) 69 (29) 27:18 (31) 25.3 N.Y. Jets 3.45 (28) 68 (28) 26:37 (32) 29.3 It comes as no surprise that Denver had the best offensive line in 2005, after the Broncos cruised to a 13-3 record despite playing with no dominant running back, a 35-year-old No. 1 receiver (Rod Smith) and a historically questionable QB (Jake Plummer). Plummer gave the ball away like Halloween candy in Arizona (114 INTs in 6 seasons). He has tossed just 34 INTs in three years playing behind the formidable Denver offensive line. Denver was No. 1 in time of possession (32:37 per game), No. 1 in QB protection (21 sacks + 8 picks) and No. 4 in yards per carry (4.68). In other words, they were blowing people away. Yes, the Broncos’ offensive line is a freak of nature. It’s dominance in the Mike Shanahan Era has been well-documented by the Cold, Hard Football Facts and others. The classic line is that John Elway never won it all until Terrell Davis showed up, but maybe Shanahan deserves more credit. As for the Jets, the loss of Chad Pennington surely hurt them in 2005, but that didn’t account for Curtis Martin’s sudden inablitity to get past the line of scrimmage. He averaged a career-low 3.3 yards per carry last season. More likely, it was center Kevin Mawae’s 10-week absence due to injury. As a result, the Jets averaged 3.5 yards a carry (28th), allowed 54 sacks + 15 picks (28th) and were dead last in time of possession (26:37). Their ranking was especially terrible considering the fact that the Jets actually ranked FIRST in offensive line play in 2004 according to our formula. When things go from penthouse to outhouse that fast, drafting for the offensive line makes a lot of sense.
It's a flawed formula for deciding exact offensive line rankings because a team with Peyton Manning at QB will automatically rank higher than a team with say Aaron Brooks at QB. But it's a decent way of looking at it.
I'm thinking Cutler has a real good chance to be the next Jeff George. We'll have to wait a few seasons to see if that works out, but having an arm does not make you a good NFL QB.
I don't think Jets fans are getting soft, I think we just realise we're in a rebuilding year. I think we understand that there was no fix all in the draft because we need that much help. If we got Cutler do you think we would be playoff bound----No. The core of a good football team starts with the hogs on the line.
Are we related? Great Point. Skills personnel are worth a damn if they are running for their lives or, on their backs. You must build from the line of scrimmage out.
Commitment to Excellence!. Here's the Sporting News Dan Pompei right after the Raiders 2004 draft. Al Davis drafted the highest rated OT and the highest rated C with their first two draft picks. Gallery and Grove were rated higher than Ferguson and Mangold coming out of college. Pompei's analysis: A The first two picks, OT Robert Gallery and C Jake Grove, make the Raiders' draft. They should be the foundation of Oakland's offensive line for years to come. Raiders greatest need was for a QB replacement for the injured Rich Gannon. They signed veteran QB's Kerry Collins and this year Aaron Brooks and drafted a second tier QB Andrew Walter as their QB of the future. Having solved their QB problem they passed on Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler since they had their infrastucture and QB of the future with moxie and a cannon for an arm. I thought Tangini was following the Bellichek model, not the Al Davis model.
Al Davis's problem is that he's on death's doorstep and wants to win right away every year. The offensive line draft in 2004 was coupled with a bunch of win right away moves in 2004 and 2005 (Randy Moss, Lamont Jordan, Kerry Collins, etc) on offense and an almost wholesale depletion of an already bad defense. Predictably it turned into a disaster because the NFL is not a roto league and just adding a bunch of good offensive players does not make your team good overnight. As soon as Davis or his successor settles down and rebuilds the Gallery/Grove draft will be looked upon as the beginniing of the rebuilding process.
At #4 with Matt Leinart available we blew the pick.Offensive linemen come and go.A franchise qb is hard to come by.
The Jets aren't stupid. They aren't going to play D'Brickashaw out of position (at RT) his first two seasons like Oakland did with Gallery.
Are draft was great. We build our Oline and we got Kellen Clemens who could actually be better than Leinart.
QBs in the first round have a fifty percent sucess rate. As good as Leinart was he isn't a sure thing. You don't take a 50-50 chance with as many holes as the Jets had at the end of last season.
