After 8 games I think most would agree we've exceeded expectations thus far at 4-4. I thought we'd be 2-6 at this point, so I'm fairly content. Hoping that this becomes a repeat of '09 where a slow start was fixed during the bye week and a 2nd half push propelled us to the playoffs. Here's a statistical analysis of the team at the midpoint compared to other NFL teams: Offense: Yards per game-17th Points per game-27th Pass yards per game-22nd Rush yards per game-13th Giveaways-30th 3rd downs made-2nd 3rd down %-13th Red Zone (TD %)-26th Defense: Yards per game-6th Points per game-23rd Pass yards per game-15th Rush yards per game-1st Takeaways-30th (tied for last) Sacks-5th 3rd down % prevention-7th Advanced Stats per FootballOutsiders for the stat junkies out there: Overall Team Efficiency: 23rd Total Offense: 31st Total Defense: 8th Special Teams Efficiency: 7th Here are my mid-year awards: Offense: MVP-I'm gonna give this to Marty Mornhinweg. The guy is making lemons out of lemonade with what he has to work with. A RB/WR corp with average at best talent (and that's putting it lightly), a rookie QB, and an inconsistent offensive line. Despite those flaws, he's come up with creative playcalling given our limitations and has been able to keep us competitive, something Tony Sparano failed to do last year. Biggest Surprise-Austin Howard. You could argue Powell, but I'm not that surprised he's having success in MM system. Has Howard been beaten at all this year? Doesn't seem like it. I think he deserves a contract extension after the season and I feel very comfortable for him manning the RT position for the next few years. Biggest Disappointment-Stephen Hill. Was expecting big things out of the kid this year given MM type of offense, but so far he's been disappointing to me. Disappears way too often. Defense: MVP-Muhammed Wilkerson. Is there any doubt this guy isn't a top 3 DE in the NFL right now? Absolute beast and will undoubtedly be locked up this offseason for the long term. Biggest Surprise-Sheldon Richardson. You can also make the case for Allen and Harrison as late round draft picks/picked up off the scrap heap players who've made big impacts, but I'm going with Richardson. ProFootballFocus has repeatedly said he's playing at a top 10 defensive line level in the NFL which is incredible for a rookie. Didn't like the pick when we took him, but I'll gladly eat crow on this one. Biggest Disappointment-Antonio Cromartie. From Pro-Bowler to one of the worst CBs in the NFL from season to season. I understand his hip injury is dragging him down a bit, but he's not even playing close to an AVERAGE level. Between his shortcomings and Milliner, the secondary has been abysmal and tough to watch. Special Teams MVP-Nick Folk. 3 game winners and 100% FGs made. What more needs to be said? Feel free to add your own and any stats out there that intrigue you.
The lack of takeaways is going to ultimately prevent this team from pushing for a WC. You can't have a rookie QB who is turnover prone (as a lot of rookie QB's are) and not have a defense that creates turnovers. The DB's on this team need to start getting some picks. On Offense, we need a big time WR in the worst way. 26th in Red Zone TD efficiency and 22nd in passing yards just ain't gonna cut it. It's clear that Secondary and WR are the most glaring issues on this team.
The team needs a Tight End that can actually pose a threat in the passing game as well. Cumberland is playing ok, but fits in with the rest of the offense in that he just isn't consistent enough. I'd say Holmes is a disappointment too, but mostly because he is injured for the second year in a row rather than anything he has done on the field.
pretending you were not to know the record of this team and just looked at stats I believe most of us would guess this was a 2 win team. To have gotten to 4 -4 with such an abysmal + - turnover differential is really unheard of. I hope that that we can correct some of these flaws and get us 5 wins the second 1/2 of season. I think its a credit to Rex, Geno's end game play and Nick Folk that we have managed to stay relevant while finding ourselves.
The Jets are tied for last in the league with the Giants at -12 in giveaways/takeaways. We've got a rookie QB throwing to a relatively green receiving corps. This is the NFL so the fact that we are 4-4 is miraculous. Add to that this years version of an injured/older Cro, plus Milliner's unearned snaps, makes it near impossible for our D's front 7 to keep us in some of these games. My coaching report card: MM gets an A considering what he's got to work with Rex gets a B- for bringing Coples back too soon off the ankle injury, too many Milliner snaps, and failure to game plan properly for a fading Cro.
I don't know if anyone else noticed this, but Stephen Hill is double covered an awful lot. Other teams must have noticed his speed last year and just decided to throw a safety on him as well. EVERY pass downfield, he never gets 1 on 1 coverage.
Excellent analysis by the OP. Some tidbits of my own; Offense Biggest Surprise-Austin Howard (agreed) and Jeff Cumberland as he has become a target of Geno. Biggest Disappointment-Stephen Hill. I am also becoming less & less thrilled with the play of Mangold & Ferguson. They're only 29yrs old, but I feel like they have past their prime. Defense Biggest Surprise - Snacks Harrison --- UDFA & some are talking about him as 1 of the best true NTs in the league! Biggest Disappointment --- Quinton Coples. He disappears a lot. I am trying to be patient with the coaching staff's Coples-OLB experiment, but more often I am asking, "why didnt we just draft an OLB to play OLB??" Also Dee Milliner (slight pass as a rookie), and where is Kenrick Ellis?????
Austin Howard has not been doing as well as many people seem to think. I can't find it right now, but I think it was Bradway who posted a couple stats showing that the run game towards the right side and inside or outside the right tackle is severely lacking with respect to the left side and left tackle.
Yeah, the Jets run game to the right is ranked poorly according to FootballOutsiders, they're doing well to the left and poorly to the right. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol They're ranked 24th at runs over right tackle which is a RT/RG stat essentially.
Because most college defenses don't run the 3-4 as their base defense. How many NFL 3-4 OLBs played OLB in college? Most were DEs in a 4-3.
That was the thing that surprised me the most doing this write up. With how poorly our +/- is coupled with lack of red zone efficiency, it's pretty incredible we are 4-4.
Right. The "tweeners" ---- just a little too small to play DE in a 4-3 defense in the NFL. But Coples has never been mistaken for a "tweener". I'm just not a fan of this experiment so far, --- even though its early.
Milliner has been a complete bust, and has contributed ZERO to the cause. The fact that there's even another name in the discussion for "most disappointing" speaks volumes about just how bad Cromartie's play has been this year.
Again, rookie, no off-season, shoulder surgery, arguably the hardest position on the field, man to man coverage. /argument
Surprises: Powell, Cumberland, Winters, Harrison, Richardson, Davis, Allen, Folk Disappointments: Ducasse, Holmes, Hill, Coples, Cro, Milliner
Not too bad on the D. Some of it is probably a little skewed. I wish defensive PPG didn't factor in pick sixes. It's kind of silly, but that's still an area we need to improve on, on both ends of the ball. The league is about scoring and we're near the bottom in both. Teams are scoring too many touchdowns against us, and we're mostly kicking FGs and punting. The D needs to absolutely force more turnovers and the offense needs to stop coughing it up as well. The 2 primary factors in any game, and we're stinking em both up.
Agree with you on most things. But despite the secondary being shit and Cromartie playing the opposite of last year I think that Millner will pick it up after the bye and start doing well. There is fight in this team yet.
