Big woop. We are 4-3, they are 1-5, no way should they be favored, home field advantage isn't enough. The Browns only win is against the Raiders, how can they be favored?
And like you said they lost to 5 tough teams all capable of going to the playoffs, all the teams we have beaten are in the running for the #1 pick, the records don't mean much, we didn't beat anyone worth mentioning
Because in Las Vegas, 1.5 points is the amount it takes RIGHT NOW, to get the same amount of money coming in on both teams. The Bookies make their money on the VIG....(I.E. the cost of the bet.) in a perfect world for vegas, exactly the same amount of money would come in on both teams, thats the reason for the point spread.... Class dismissed, you are welcome.
Im never confident -- but despite their weapons -- the Browns dont seem to have offense. Running game has been bad. Passing has been ok. The jets weakness is on defense -- and IM not sure the Browns can capitalize. Still--its a loseable game.
Yeah they lost to 5 tough teams. We lost to 3 tough teams as well! They beat one crappy team, we beat 4, don't you see the point I'm making? Jets are 4-3, Browns are 1-5. The Browns only beat the Raiders. Did the Jets only beat similiar teams? Yes, but we lost to 3 quality teams, just like the Brown's losses, as in, the Jets should easily be favored.
Huh? theyre favored because theyre at home, and we havent proved ourselves as playoff contenders yet.
I know people have posted this in here before, but you don't seem to be getting it. The Vegas lines are not about "disrespecting" certain teams, they're about the bookies protecting themselves and trying to make as much money as possible.
Exactly..and 3rdanddraw15's post right above this is on the money too. The reason that spreads move is that action is coming in on one side much more than the other. Its not like vegas is saying "look at all these dumb bastards..lets leave the spread there". They move it until it evens out..and if the spread for this game stays the same...blame the betting public for not respecting your team..not Vegas.
generally when a team is at home they give 3 points...at least thats the rule of thumb. i think the only reason they are favored at all is because it is in cleveland. im a little shocked that cleveland is favored, no matter where the game is....they could play it on the moon and i dont see frye an co beating the jets. btw, NEVER bet on the jets....i know if i lost a lot of loot on them it would build resentment towards the team. ill stick to hating a few other teams, but not my beloved jets.
The Jets get no respect period! Even after a win where theres some real good play's, you can watch the highlight footage all over T.V. and they'll show the other teams highlights and we'll get a clip of a tackle by a jets player. Even the coaches who commentate on the games pick the other team. Inspite of the other teams horrible record. People just expect unhappy endings for the Jets. Not me!!
OK... this is coming from an avid sports gambler... The spread is on the money based on being where it needs to be to get equal action on each end of the spectrum. Vegas/ bookies don't make money by pushing the spread towards the team that they think will get more action, they make money SOLELY in volume by consuming the VIG. So, the closer the spread is to accurate, the more Vegas/ the bookies will make. If it was up to Vegas, they'd love every better to push on every wager - if that was the case, they'd be up 5 - 10% per week... where else can you see that kind of ROE? Now, on to this game... I am very confident taking the Jets here... For two primary reasons... 1.) This game has intangible value to us - we NEED to win... that would put us at 5-3, tied in the win column with the Pats should they lose in a tough matchup w/ Minny on Monday night. This game means absolutely nothing to the Browns. 2.) I honestly don't think that Mangini will let the crew look past this game like Herman did in the past. He knows the importance of this one, and will be treating it like the friggin superbowl. He knows that we NEED to win these winable games to have a shot at the playoffs. My prediction is Jets by 7... hopefully I'm right...
My guess would be that sports bettors are smarter than the average fan about the things that go into winning and losing games in any professional sport, especially the NFL. My reasoning would be that you can't afford to lose for long without self-destructing and taking yourself out of the bettor pool. That would mean that at any given moment the long-term bettors in the pool are much better at predicting wins and losses than the average fan, because they have managed to stick around in an environment where losing removes them from play. The short-term bettors who are self-destructing and will be removed form play are definitely no better off than the average fan. And of course all habitual bettors are in many ways dumber than the average fan because habitual betting will wipeout all but the elite gamblers eventually.
Your last point is what I'm getting at. I work too hard for my money to have it riding on some kicker for the Cardinals or someone going for two, etc. I mean, I'll play the lines in Vegas if I'm there during an NFL Sunday, but these guys constantly phoning bets in to some scumbag bookie, I just don't get that. Get a whore if you're dying to lose money so bad, at least get something back. JMO
I believe that you're definitely right. In every study I have seen about predicting the outcome of a game, in any sport, the "gold standard" is the betting line, and none of the high-powered statistical methods have been able to beat it. Although in principle it should be possible to be smarter than the "average bettor", in practice it seems to be almost impossible - kind of like how virtually impossible it is to beat the stock market.
