Ok, trying to sort out all of the factors that I think are important in this weekend's matchup of the Jets and Pats in Foxboro. First of course would be general quality of the teams. I think you have to give the Pats the edge on overall talent. On the offensive side of the ball they've been fairly explosive and averaged 4.3 points more a game than the Jets. Defensively they allowed 3.7 points a game less. On overall quality of performance the Pats are more than a touchdown better than the Jets. Advantage: Pats Second would be how the teams match up head to head. In the two games this season the Pats scored 38 points and the Jets 34. The differential is significant but you need to factor in the fact that the Pats scored the first 24 points in the season's matchups and were then outscored 34-14 over the last 6 quarters or so. All things considered I feel like the Pats and Jets really fought to a standstill in head to head play this season. Advantage: Even Third would be coaching and preparation. I think at this point there is no question that Bill Belichik is the best head coach in football. He's won 3 rings in the last 5 years and has to be accorded the respect that that entails. He is missing some of his key assistants however and so the margin of dominance in coaching may be a lot less than it appears on the surface, particularly given the fact that Mangini and his staff are quite good themselves. Also of importance is the fact that Belichik has a long paper trail at this point. The Jets will be preparing against a known opponent whereas Belichik and company have much more of a blank sheet facing them. Advantage Pats. Fourth would be the location of the game and what it means. The Pats have had some trouble in Foxboro this year. They lost 3 games there to the Jets, Denver and Indianapolis and had all 3 losses come despite having the individual leader in passing and rushing in each game. The Jets have been quite good on the road this year winning 6 games including the game played between the Pats and Jets in Foxboro. It's hard not to give the Pats a knee-jerk homefield advantage here, however the season lines suggest that the location of the game is not going to favor them much, if at all. Advantage: Even. Fifth and last would be the injury reports. Who is going to play and be able to play well is going to have a huge impact on any week 18 game. The Pats have a number of injury questions at this point headed into next week's game. Rodney Harrison, just back from a leg injury, apparently reinjured his knee (likely bruise of kneecap) today and did not return to the game. Chad Scott who has been a key contributor and starter opposite Asante Samuel was out today and there is no word as to whether or not his back spasms will allow him to play effectively. Similarly Vince Wilfork did not play with a sprained ankle and his status is likely to be questionable all week. On offense both Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk, key 3rd down contributors were out and wil be questionable. For the Jets Andre Dyson will be out barring a miracle and Laveranues Coles is banged up although he'll play. At the moment the Jets have no other significant injuries although the wear and tear on Nick Mangold may be an issue. The Pats have a number of key contributors banged up right now and the Jets are relatively healthy. Advantage: Jets At this point I basically see the matchup as fairly neutral overall with the biggest difference likely to be in how the two teams perceive each other. If the Jets can come into New England viewing the Pats as just a tough challenge I think they have an excellent shot at an upset.
Which is why I pounded the Jets +9 as fast as I could. That spread should be 7 at highest. For people who don't bet, I definitely think we have a shot to win. I'd say we'd beat NE in this spot about a third of the time. The two teams have the same mentality. The Patriots just happen to be a little better in each side of the game. They run it better, they have a better QB, and they have a better run defense. The key is that the Jets have a better pass defense, which could frustrate Brady, since his receivers aren't very good. I would say the Jets have been coached better this season. We've had a consistent effort all year and have played to maximum ability all year. For New England, you can't say the same thing. An x-factor to this game is how badly Billy Boy wants to beat the Jets. I think that might help the Jets, since the Jets don't have much to lose. New England has everything to lose.
Imagine the Patriots without Chad Scott and Rodney Harrison trying to cover Coles, Cotchery, McCareins, Baker and Washington in a spread... Imagine Wilfork being unable to get much plant for a pass rush on that ankle. I see all sorts of things in the injury reports that are giving me glimmmers of a miracle to come. As to the Jet's defensive backfield shutting down the Pats receivers, the Dyson injury really kind of nullifies that.
The biggest problem I have with this game is whether the Jets can stop the Pats rushing offense. Brady will make his plays...but if the Pats do what they have done in the past..and what the Bills were able to do..and a few other teams this year, this could be a very annoying game. With the weaker Pat receivers, we could stack a bit more..but not with Brady. If the Jets control the Pats running game..we have a real shot. If not, It could be a very long game.
X Factor I agree with all your intelligent analysis except for your point on coaching. BB and company are not up for Coach of the Year; Mangini knows this team well and has already beaten them in November; X Factor is little genius Schottenheimer whom from what I read on several other posts gets zero credit for amazing and gutsy play calling. Look at yesterday's game...expect the unexpected up at Foxboro!!!
The spread based on the two prior meetings and what both teams have done since should be 3.5 IMO... However, I like the fact we're a 9 point dog... the moment the so called experts start giving us respect is the moment I start to worry
Be VERY careful thinking this bet is a sure thing at +9. It looks very favorable, but a lot of time, playoff games go from 1 to 2 score games at the very end because the team trailing goes for broke trying to get back in and throws a pick 6.
If you look at the playoff field rationally, the Pats in my mind are the favorite to win the SB. They are flawed and can be beat but overall tremendous talent on both sides of the ball and by far the best QB in the tournement. We will need to hold the Pats under 13 to win.
I tend to lean more towards winstons way of thinking. Going up against Brady is bad enough, but the type of offense the Jets run going up against Belichick for the 3rd time this year is just as bad or worse news IMO. Schotty is going to have to come up with the gameplan of his life and Chad is going to have to play the game of his life for the Jets to come out on top in this one.
We have rarely if ever gone outside and up the field early in games this year. If Chad has it in him this is the game to do it.
Maybe let Brad Smith throw a pass as well? At this point in the season whenever Brad Smith comes on the field the chances are very good that they're going to try and run it with him in some way. I'm suprised that we haven't seen him pull up and try and throw it yet, maybe they're saving it for the playoffs?
1/6 4:30 ET At Indianapolis -6.5 Kansas City 1/6 8:00 ET At Seattle -3 Dallas 1/7 1:00 ET At New England -9 NY Jets 1/7 4:30 ET At Philadelphia -6.5 NY Giants
Remember guys, we're in the playoffs where NOONE ever thought we would be. We're playing with HOUSE MONEY right now and a team with no fear is a VERY dangerous team. I shouldn't be shocked if we tried some trickeration. Will it work? Who knows, but I'd be shocked if we didn't try. I think we ran some plays against OAK simply to get them on film for Belicheck to prep for.
I think with Harrison out Wolfork's ability to control the game like he did in the first game is the key. If we can spread the Pats out a little and Wolfork is still dinged up I think they we will be able to do a lot of creative things. If Wolfork is solid the Pats can blow up trick plays pretty quickly.
That indy line is too high, this is the worst possible matchup for the Colts I see the Colts losing with the way they don't play run defense
The Chiefs are a terrible road team and playing inside favors the finesse game of the Colts over the physical game of the Chiefs.
I'd take Indy at that line. I can't see their social security check collecting secondary keeping up with Harrison/Wayne/et al. Yes, it will be tough for them to stop LJ, but Herm will play for it to be close, and then Indy will score late to win by 10.
