I Just hope the Jets don't get SUCKED IN to any value chart mumbo-jumbo from Atlanta and take the lesser deal According to the value chart, Atlanta's offer {47 & 79} is slightly more valuable than the Hawks offer {31} But don't be fooled ... THAT IS FOOLS GOLD ... I have studied this draft relentlessly and that 31st Overall Pick is more valuable than the Falcons 2 and 3 ... it's not even close This draft goes around 40 deep with 1st RD talent .. some will say 35, others will say 45, but I'll settle on 40 That means the Jets should get THREE 1st RD Graded Players out of this draft with the #4, #31 and #35 Picks However, you exchange that #31 for the #47 and the Jets walk off with TWO 1st RD Graded players, NOT THREE So although the value chart will tell you the Falcons offer is slightly better, that does not account for the unusual amount of 1st RD caliber players that number in the 35-45 range, nor does it tell you that you likely MISS THAT GROUP at 47 ... some drafts {most drafts} don't even go 32 deep with 1st RD Grades ... so trust me on this one, the Hawks are making the better offer It's a no brainer .. you have to take Seattle's offer and walk away from this draft with THREE 1st RD Graded prospects BEWARE, TANGINI ... if the Falcons try to use the value chart as a sales pitch, you better check under the hood cause they are selling a lemon That #47 Pick takes you RIGHT OUT {O-U-T, OUT} of that 1st RD Grade area
Do the Falcons have the Jets by the short hairs? Michael Smith report on Sportscenter: John Abraham has a long term deal set with the Falcons and Abraham wants to play and live in Atlanta. The Jets, don't like Atlanta's proposal, so thats why they want to trade him to Seattle because Falcons aren't offering that much. In fact, I think the Falcons have lowered their offer (from what I have heard.) No team is going to give up anything thing for Abraham unless they can work out a contract. Seattle 's offer of the 31st pick will only happen if Abraham agrees to a long term contract. If he doesn't then there isn't any Seattle deal. Right now it looks like the Jets' choices are take whatever Atlanta is offering, or keep Abraham for the 2006 season. Atlanta isn't going to raise their offer, because they don't have to.
The Atlanta deal does gives them more ammo for a move up for Leinart if thats what they are thinking. I think they are still trying to get Shaub though and I wouldn't entirely rule out that possibility.
WRONG If the Jets stick to their guns and refuse to trade Abe anywhere but Seattle {the highest bidder}, Abe has a decision to make as well ... workout a long-term deal with Seattle, who is on record that they are prepared to match Atlanta's offer, or lose the long-term deal he so covets and play another year under the franchise tag That's his choice, but I believe he'll take the loot from Seattle if the Jets stick to their guns ... and I believe Tangini {not to be confused with Bradway} will do JUST THAT PS. Abe loved his visit to Seattle ... raved about it ... so he'll take their money if they match Atlanta's offer, again, so long as the Jets make it crystal clear it's Seattle or nothing, and I suspect they will NO MORE BRADWAY NO MORE PUSHOVERS There's a new sheriff in town and his name is Tangini
Fools Gold? E-Yah, Fools gold is evaluating a Human Beings worth based on a pre-determined Value Chart.
Fantastic post Jabba. I never even looked at it that way, but yeah, I guess that's why the Jets agreed with Seattle, rather than Atlanta. Getting Ramsey today changed the whole dynamic of the situation for us. Now that Schaub is no longer necessary, Atlanta has to either pony up the good to us, or we walk. At this point, I can't see it being worth it to us with Atlanta unless they are willing to trade Schaub and a 3rd rounder, or their second rounder this year and next. Have fun on the left coast Abe.
Thanks Ailo I have studied this draft to death, and I came to the conclusion long ago {which remains true till this day} that there is a Generous 40 1st RD Grades at the top of the board ... GENEROUS ... it's really 35-40, somewhere in that range That #31 Pick puts us in a perfect position to walk away from this draft with THREE 1st RD Graded Prospects ... while #47 virtually assures you will only walk away with TWO, barring a 1st RD Graded prospect sliding through the cracks, and you can't bet on that happening ... that is fools gold
I actually see the draft as having about ten worthwhile first rounders, then a group of about 50-70 who are second round worthy. With that view, the Atlanta offer seems a little better. Frankly, I'm just playing devil's advocate because I think in the 31 and 35 slots we'll be able to get probably the top rated center and a near-top rated RT, our two areas of most urgent need, therefore making the Seattle offer more valuable, but I can see justifications for both points of view.
As always Jabba, your posts are some of the best on TGG. Thanks for the insight and don't let the darksiders get you down.
Great Post Alanta can walk if they don't get serious about they're #1, I don't believe this NEW team of Tangini will blow this Abe deal...the Jet's fans & league can be sent a great message if they work out a favorable deal on Abe...getting away from the Bradway reputation.....
I can appreciate that vilmatic, the devils advocate angle, but it's not true my friend and I suspect you know it There is a difference between elite prospects at the TOP of the board and bona-fide 1st RD Grades ... it is true that there are around 10 elite prospects, but the number of legit 1st RD Grades {by my calculation, and I have studied this draft to death} is 35-40 ... after that you have a dropoff to legit 2nd RD Grades that can number from 40-70 if you wish
I swear, if I didn;t know better I'd think we were twins seperated at birth. Go look at what I posted at footballguys.com under the screen name Rovers on this. It's an almost word for word post! I'm starting to get scared.... it's creepy.
That happens a lot with you and me ... I think we need to check with our parents, findout if one of us was adopted at birth, cause I have a hunch we share the same DNA :up:
Thank You Terp, that's very kind of you ... the feeling is mutual my friend, I love reading your posts as well
Jabba, just to play a little more devil's advocate, if there are about 40 first round quality guys? QB: Leinart, Young, Cutler RB: Bush, Williams, White, Maroney WR: Holmes, Jackson TE: Davis, Pope, Lewis OT: D'Brick, Justice, Winston, McNeill OG: Joseph, Gillis C: Mangold DE: Williams, Hali, Wimbley DT: Ngata, Bunkley OLB: Hawk, Greenway, Sims, Carpenter, Ryans ILB: Jackson CB: Williams, Cromartie, Hill, Youboty S: Huff, Whitner, Simpson That's 37 guys I would put on that level, with other guys very close. I would guarantee that at least one of those guys would slip to 47, it's not like the top 37 picks will be the 37 1st round caliber players.
Mack, what you're referring to is teams drafting for need as opposed to BAP ... assuming there are no 1st RD Graded players who fill any kind of a need, even lesser needs, still on the board ... thus they reach for a 2nd RD Grade at a position of need and pass on the 1st RD Graded prospects Now my 37 would look slightly different than yours, but let's use yours for the sake of this post because it's all relative ... the premise remains the same ... 37 1st RD Grades and the Jets hope to secure one at 47, hoping the above occurs, right? Okay, assuming there are 37 1st RD Grades in this class we're not talkin about one or two teams ... five teams would have to pass on 1st RD Graded players for one, JUST ONE, to slide to 47 The likelyhood of that happening is, well, highly unlikely ... cause unlike fans who lend a ton of weight to NEEDS when they post mocks, GM's tend to place a much greater emphasis on GRADES than fans ... so to ask for one or two to pass on 1st RD Graded players is possible, but to ask for FIVE to do likewise is, well, highly unlikely Secondly, if one slips through the cracks, JUST ONE, what happens if it's a position we least need to address ... like oh say, safety ... which is possible because there are a few safeties who are LATE ONE Grades in that mix and safeties tend to slide ... so now we are faced with the above proposition, reach for a 2nd RD Grade or tab a position we least need to address Anyhow, is it possible a 1st RD Graded player we can use, even at a lesser position of need, can fall to 47? ... YES, IT IS POSSIBLE ... but it's highly unlikely and a foolish bet to make when you can just as easily assure yourself a choice of oh say, a half dozen or more 1st RD Grades at 31 with absolutely zero chance that you will not land a legit 1st Rounder at a position of need in that spot So yeah, you can hope for the unlikely and make the trade with Atlanta or you can assure yourself of walkin off with three 1st RD Graded players on day one and make the deal with Seattle IMO it's a no brainer
It doesn't make any difference what we think is a "1st round" quality. In addition, there are "1st round" quality guys that Mangini and Mr. T would never pick because they do not fit their profile of player. They have their own list of quality players that may be quite different from the Kiper's of this world. They know whether the group of guys they are interested will be around at 31 vs 47. My guess is that 47 doesn't cut it. They also know that an additional 3rd or 4th rounder will come their way with compensation pick thus a 3rd rounder in the deal is not that attractive.
Unless you take the #47 & #79 & use them in a trade up with the Broncos for #29. They have 2 first round picks and are shopping them, you might even be able to work your way up to their #22 pick. The more picks you have, the more options moving around in the draft. I'm a Falcon fan, and hope our teams can work something out something that's win - win.
