Here is a not so hot take. Not all of the following players will go in the first round: Wide Receiver: Treylon Burks Garrett Wilson Drake London Chris Olave Offensive Line: Evan Neal Ikem Ekwonu Charles Cross Tyler Linderbaum Kenyon Green Bernhard Raimann Trevor Penning Zion Johnson Tight End: Trey McBride Edge: Aiden Hutchinson Kayvon Thibodeaux George Karlaftis David Ojabo Travon Walker Jermaine Johnson Linebacker: Devin Lloyd Nakobe Dean Cornerback: Sauce Gardner Derek Stingley Trent McDuffie Kaiir Elam Andrew Booth Jr. Safety: Kyle Hamilton Daxton Hill Jaquan Brisker Right here alone, I've listed 29 players who could all reasonably be taken in the first round—all deserving. I'd say maybe 75% of them will be. Some teams are going to reach for a quarterback. Some teams are going to reach for a different position. We see it every single year where some very good football players go overlooked on Day 1. All this to say we're a in a very strong draft position where we don't need to be necessarily trading back or overthinking. We have the most draft capital of any team since 1999 Browns based on the draft value trade chart. Instead, we should be looking at each position and saying, "What is the delta in player quality at this position if we wait until round 2?" And then, "How do we reason about need and position value given this dropoff in quality?". Some questions to consider: If Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are gone at 4, is there any edge at 4 that's that much better than what we get in round 2? Do we really need to go oline or can we get a plenty good guard in round 2? At 10, do we absolutely have to take an edge/oline/WR here or does it make more sense to take what are clearly the best at their position at S, CB, LB and wait till round 2? Obviously all this is dependent on how the free agent and trade markets work out, but we can get at least 4 instant starters and 2 blue chip players in this draft. Don't underestimate the value of those second rounders and the flexibility they allow us.
Excellent post. I think the Jets also need to take into consideration scheme fit and other considerations. For example, a CB might be the best player available, but he might be best in a man-based scheme and not so good in a zone scheme, which I believe we play most of the time. In that scenario, even though that CB may be the best player available or the best player at his position, he's not a scheme fit for us, so we should take someone else. Similarly, at WR, we have Moore who has a smaller frame. IMO we need a taller, big-bodied WR more than another small WR. A taller, big-bodied WR would be a better complement to Moore, and would give our offense more flexibility and capabilities. So in that situation, say if Burks is there and there's not another WR who the Jets think has the same abilities and potential, then they should take him in the 1st round rather than waiting and seeing what's there in the 2nd and then just taking the best WR available, who may not be a good scheme fit or be a good complement to Moore, but rather be almost identical to Moore and his skillset. The position where I think your post could ring the most true is Edge. Do the Jets see all Edges roughly the same after Hutch and KT, or do they see those you listed as signficantly better than Ebiketie, Enagbare, Thomas, Williams and the rest? Personally, I don't like Karlaftis at all, and am skeptical on Johnson. I think Walker is similar to JFM in that they both can play DT and Edge, even though JFM is probably better vs the pass, and Walker better vs the run. I'm not sure that we need another player like that. If the Jets think that Ojabo or even Johnson is the way to go at #10 or following a trade down, so be it, but in terms of the Edge position, I'd be quite happy if they took Burks or an OL at #10, and then took an Edge at #35 or #38. I like Ebiketie a lot, and think that Enagbare, Thomas, and Williams have potential.
very good post indeed. No matter how often we hear this player will never be there at this spot or this player is going in round 1, it never fails to happen here and there. Someone really good always seems to fall out of the 1st. Metcalf is a great example, was expected to go top 10 top 15 at worse and fell to 64. That means at 35 we could land a 1st round talent or get a nice haul trading back when a team wants to move up for someone that fell. With that said there are a few on your list I really don't think are going to be 1st rounders. zion, raimann, mcbride, elam, hill, and brisker are more often then not thought of as 2nd rounders. as far as positional drop off goes, i fully agree. Don't reach for someone high when you can get someone almost as good a round later due to need. I think with edge it's hutch and KT, now JJ is separating possibly. then you have a group of 4-5 other guys who are all pretty similar. meaning 35 could be a great spot to land an edge if we can't get hutch or KT at 4. Also same for WR. it seems for most the top 5 are pretty close with little drop off. then the next 5 are pretty similar. picking a WR at 10 doens't seem any worse off then one at 15 so that's another trade down for us. regardless of what we think, teams will find a QB they love and will be willing to move up, we should take full advantage of that.
These QBs need to start getting the hype train rolling.. would be nice to see 4 go in the first. Add Williams to that WR list too
Edge and probably wide receiver. I agree on the scheme/personnel fit. We could use a big bodied receiver to complement our undersized WR corps. Burks would be ideal. Though at Edge, Ebiketie won't be a good fit for a 4-3 scheme. I love the player, but his best fit will be as a 3-4 OLB. It seems trivial but there's a big difference between rushing standing up and sticking your hand in the dirt and really setting an edge. He would be way undersized for that.
It'll be interesting to see if anyone takes a late first flyer on Williams. Seems more likely he'll fall into the hands of a team with less holes toward the end of the second. On QB's, I'm thinking at least Howell, Willis, and Pickett will go round 1. Ridder and Corral have a shot but I think it's a long one.
Eh, depends on who you talk to. I've seen all those guys mocked in the first at some point. My list doesn't even consider a couple of positions where you could see some first rounders too (DT and QB). RB is highly unlikely though
I disagree regarding Ebiketie's scheme fit. Von Miller weighs 250. Jerry Hughes weighs 256. Brian Burns is 250. Yannick Ngakoue is 246. Melvin Ingram is 247. It hasn't hurt their ability any. Of the upcoming Edge prospects in the draft, KT is 258. Myjai Sanders is 242. David Ojabo is 250. No one is talking about any of them being a 3-4 OLB. They're all projected as 4-3 DEs. Ebiketie can add some muscle and weight. IMO setting the Edge is as much about technique, strength, and will/discipline as it is size.
yeah positional need and all. funny I just did a mock draft for all 32 teams and wound up with 3 of those guys going in the 1st. Off our list of guys you made in the OP 4 of them "slid" into the 2nd round for my mock up. Dean, elam, walker, and mcbride meaning 1 would be there at 35 guaranteed. We should see 2 1st round DTs IMO with davis and leal
Maybe projecting some preference here. I tend to want my 4-3 DE in the mold of Bosa(s), Garrett, Young in terms of size. Obviously those guys are freaks, but they're able to effectively play all 3 downs because of the size/speed combination. They're also very comfortable rushing with their hand in the dirt so they can get off the ball and upfield a lot quicker.
Ebiketie has been rushing with his hand in the dirt, as has been Ojabo, as did most, if not all of the other players I mentioned. For a 4-3, I actually like smaller, quicker, faster DEs. Not many men have the freakish speed that the Bosas, Young and Garrett have at their size. With as quickly as QBs get the ball out now, speed is what kills, not size and/or brute strength.
Digging deeper into late first round prospects that could fall to us in the second round that I like in the secondary and the DL DL: Trevon Walker Jermaine Johnson Drake Jackson DeMarvin Leal DB: Kair Elam Rodger McCreary Dax Hill Jaquan Brisker
