Thanks - I see where you are looking now - though it looks like the cap hit is $13m (the $10m being the cap saving) which does make it easier but it is still a fair chunk to add to what you would need to pay Murray. For Murray it looks like the difference between a trade or a cut is $40m+ for the Cards (and they are currently estimated to only have $44m cap space in 2026) so it doesn't look like he would get cut so the Jets would need to take him on his current deal and then it would depend on what the Cards would want (if anything) by way of compensation. I had a look and the Jets are set to have the third largest amount of cap space in 2026 so I guess it is doable if they wanted to.
This is exactly how I see it playing out. But just looking at it... if they cut him post 6/1 they eat $50 mil in 2026. Even spreading it out, that's rough. They'd have to enter full rebuild mode the way we did and I could see it. Gannon isn't long for that job. I can't fathom anyone trading for him. The Cardinals would have to eat most of the contract or the new team would have to be very dumb. I don't like that sometimes describes us.
This is just how his salary was manipulated. I've invested some time studying this system. Basically CAP system has a loophole (well really it's by design) where you can push the CAP down the road. Think of it like debt, but with 0 interest. Eventually you have to pay it, yes, but by the time you pay, you will have more new debt that you can carry forward. The way you do it is by adding void years and giving a signing bonus, that is then split CAP-wise across the years you are not even expected to be on the team. The biggest factor is how much real money an owner is willing to pay. Let me give you Fields example, but it rally applies to anyone a GM wants to use to spread the CAP. Mostly these are the people with larger contracts, because it is easier to do. We gave Fields 2 year deal 20 mil annually, with 20 guaranteed in 2026, and 10 out of 20 in 2027. How is the 1st year paid out? He is actually getting 20 mil cash, but not all as a salary, but 15 as a bonus and 5 as a salary. 15 as a bonus CAPwise is spread across 5 years, because we gave him 3 extra BS void years on top of 2 real years. Why? Because we took interest free loan across 5 years and don't have to count all 15 he is paid this year against the CAP. So 5 mil base counts against the CAP, plus 15/5=3 mil bonus, for total of 8 mil CAP this year. But he was paid 20 mil, what happens to the difference of 12 mil? That is the CAP dept you incurred for future. Whether we keep him or not doesn't matter. You owe 12 mil in CAP no matter what. Now, we want to cut the bastard cause he sucks, he is not on the roster. The same 12 now will be referred to as DEAD cap. But it is the same 12. Plus remember that 10 mil we guaranteed for 2027 - that will be added to that, you are on the hook for it whether he plays or not. That's the 12+10=22 mil dead cap. You can split that with June 1st designation, it's not exactly even split, it will count I think 10, then another 12 a year later. But does not really matter that much. Again, 12 mil you were indebted for this year and you had to pay it off eventually either way. Plus extra 10 for next year. You can restructure or structure any contract to move like that to incur on that loan, that you will ultimately need to pay interest free. It does not matter if it is Fields, Rodgers, etc... Typically larger contracts allow you to take that loan, so QBs happen to be it. That does not mean we are paying Rodgers not to play this and next year or whatever, we just used his salary to manipulate the CAP to take that loan. We don't want that to be out of hand overall, but overall currently we don't have too much of that debt compared to others, we can pretty much do what we need to do. But we have to find a way to get a QB, otherwise ultimately it CAN get out of hand if we have to pay all these guys after rookie deals (and not just CAP but real money too) and will end up losing them.
I agree with the dilema as you stated. But IMO there are times to strike and trade up and time to pass. If Moore is not in this years draft this QB class is an absolute crap shoot. Mendoza out of desperation might move up some but when all is well and done I see may be two QBs drafted in the first round but none as high as you seem to think. The rest mid second and beyond. I would not be a bit surprised if Mendoza drops significantly based on his final games. If the Jets stand pat and Mendoza comes to them and they like him enough so be it, but I don’t really have a good feeling about him. I rather pass and load up on talent and get someone to replace Fields. Under no circumstances do I think we should get cute and trade up, not a good year to do that. I also think the Shanahan theory is a bit exaggerated, as not long ago he went all in on a massive trade for an absolute bust that no one could resurrect. I would absolutely take Mac Jones and retain my top picks as a starter for next year. I have confidence in Mouge to bring in the right pieces. Hell I saw guys like Marriotta and others this weekend putting up some amazing efforts. We just need an upgrade over Fields and more consistent and durable than TT to keep this ship on track. I also would keep TT as back up. The year after next might be the trade up or bust year.
As far as Lance, Shanahan is extremely good, but he is not a magician But Mac Jones, I am not against him if we have no choice, kinda like lottery ticket we had with Fields, but again to me it is a low probability lottery ticket. I would not want to pay too much for it though. Shanahan took the team to SB with Jimmy G, and Jimmy looked solid there, it was not with the defense. Purdy looks good there, Mac looks good. I think Shanahan can make a decent back-up QB look good. I do think Mac is a decent back-up QB. But yeah, Shanahan cannot make complete garbage look good, although even Lance looked decent there in the 1st couple of starts he had. But I would not be fooled with Mac looking competent with Shanahan. He is still a back-up low probability lottery ticket, and requires an asset to acquire.
Zack Rosenblatt @ZackBlatt Brandon Stephens against the Falcons 37 coverage snaps 4 targets 1 catch 4 yards Stephens has settled in as just a solid, consistent performer for the #Jets. Azareye'h Thomas wasn't bad either: 37 coverage snaps 3 targets 1 catch 19 yards On top of Metchie and Mitchell breaking out (although not at the same time) the last few weeks, Stephens and AZ Thomas have played very well. AZ commits some bad penalties but he's learning on the fly. But that's why these wins are far from "meaningless" and are of no comparison to random late December wins by the Gase and Saleh teams. We're winning because guys who will be here next year and beyond are playing well. There's no way to paint that as a negative.
I don't really love him either, but I would sign up for 67% completion rate, 3900 yards, 24 TDs and 12 INTs. That's his average season when not hurt. He would be 29 next year with only one more year guaranteed on his contract.
On the surface I agree but he's looked BAD the last two years. He lost his job to Jacoby Brissett, that says something. To me there's a domino effect... is he getting cut or traded? If it's a trade, no thanks. If it's cut and one-year prove it deal, sure. But no more than that, because ideally you have a rookie QB waiting in the wings behind him to take over in 2027 or halfway through 2026 when Kyler sucks.
Well, again, it is good to see young guys are developing and we all want that, and they would have have had same performance if Atlanta didn't muff a punt. The only negative part is the draft pick positioning. We moved down by 4 spots, would have been 3d with a loss, now 7th. There is a big difference in value there. At least be intellectually honest and concede this basic point. But how are these wins any different from meaningless Gase and Saleh wins though that didn't carry forward? Some of the guys that contributed to these wins stayed the following year. Can you explain that, because I know it feels good to say it's different, but the facts seem to contradict that pretty decisively.
The degree to which you care about nuance (constantly bringing up why the wins actually weren't good ones, this time it's ST) but then also give no shits about nuance (constantly saying it's logical to want a higher pick and anything else is just silly emotions) doesn't feel like it's conducive to any kind of valuable discussion. Let's just agree to disagree on winning vs. losing. As for the second part, you'd have to provide what you consider a "meaningless win". Is it anything in December? Anything after being eliminated? Anything after you've deemed the season to be over?
The coaching staff is getting better at managing games. The players are developing well and playing hard for this coaching staff. The GM and CS have a good eye for talent and are making great trades. This is all leading to better performance on the field and wins. Jet fans: Can you believe these *$%@*&%&!@#&% idiots are ruining their draft position!!!!
I never said this was not a good win (aside the obvious draft implications, but I was happy with AD in particular) or emotions very silly, I said the opposite actually that I completely understand the emotional aspect of it, but you seem to be set on arguing strawman for some reason. We can disagree on winning vs losing when it's clear we are not making the play-offs, we traded some of the best players for future assets, and we desperately need to draft a QB, but don't misquote all the time. Again, explain how this is different from Saleh/Gase wins in similar situation that didn't carry over?
I get what he’s saying…emotionally I always want the Jets to win, and even though it cost us draft spots yesterday, I was happy to see a win. At the same time, rationally, I can totally understand that this win dropped us (as of now…still a few games to go so could change) from the 3rd overall pick to the 7th overall pick, and obviously on a rebuilding team short on talent, it would be MUCH better to have the 3rd pick to the 7th pick, whether you use it on a player or trade out. I think the term “meaningless” is the nebulous one that will be different for different people…the win is meaningless in terms of the standings when you are essentially eliminated from playoff contention in October…but I do think the win does mean something on a young team that is looking to rebuild….so I can see both sides. We’ve seen some of these late season wins in previous seasons and the talk track was that it helps build momentum for next year…I don’t agree with that and certainly the results we’ve gotten have proven that late season wins on a very bad team don’t mean a whole lot of shit for next season, regardless of how many players are coming back…it just doesn’t carry over. But again, for me, I can’t complain about a win…sure we got lucky with the muffed punt, but we also played well in the last couple of minutes to hold the Falcons and drive for a FG, so it is what it is. If we win a couple more games and end up with 5 wins we’ll probably have a pick somewhere around 9 - 11 I guess, which won’t be great, but it is what it is. I’d rather have a higher pick than that but I also can’t complain too much about a win
Draft position is meaningless if you can't pick good players and/or you can't develop them. Also, if you make a big mistake, such as drafting Zach Wilson with the overall #2 pick, you refuse to move on from him. The point is that general management and coaching are the biggest difference makers in today's NFL. Not draft position.
How many 1st. round picks do we have this year including our own? 3. That's three bites of the apple folks. So, what if we don't draft top 3? That give Mougey and Glenn 3 more shots in the first round to get shit done. I'm saying it's not critical to be in the top of the draft when for all intent and purposes, you're gonna dominate the draft anyway. I hope the Jets go 2-3 out of their last 5 games and finish with 5 wins. Takes the trade-up off the table and forces Mougey and Glenn to restock the roster with young hungry talent. Hell, with 3 picks in the first round, we could even afford the luxury of drafting BPA and still have two other 1st round picks. Basically for the first time in decades, the draft is all UPSIDE for the Jets!!
Agreed….we have to hope that Mougey is better So far the early returns on Mougey seem pretty good…I think maybe a bit overrated sometimes when I read through here as it’s not like we drafted any rookie of the year types or any probowlers so far, but overall I like his draft. Membou (despite the poor day yesterday) and Taylor have been good I think…with a better QB I would like to see Taylor do more than just run 5 yard outs which is what most of his catches seem to be…I’d like to see him work more of the intermediate routes in the middle or down the seam, but I think a lot of that has been coming from the piss poor QB play from Fields. It’s nice to see AZ getting time at CB and while he’s been a bit penalty prone he is showing potential… Arian Smith has been invisible and a total non-factor so far, but again, hard to really judge some of the receivers when the QB play has been so bad…but despite that, he just hasn’t flashed like AT ALL…not a good sign, so maybe a bad pick but for a 4th rounder, not the end of the world. The safety Moore has been playing OK I guess… So the draft looks solid if not spectacular. The free agent signing that was big was Stephens and he has been playing much better after a rough start. And some of those under the radar trades have looked good…the two DT’s early, Briggs and Harrison, look ok if not spectacular…the two receivers have been some good some bad but there may be potential there with both guys…and certainly improve our WR3 / WR4 spots if nothing else. I like Williams as both a return guy and wouldn’t mind seeing him get more time at receiver either… So there is hope with Mougey. I see our top needs as QB, DE, and WR, and then right on those heels we need help at LB (would love to have an LB who can actually cover a TE…feels like decades since we’ve had that) and at S, as well as interior OL…we have pieces on interior OL so we can mix and match but we need an upgrade there. Just feels like this isn’t the draft to get the right QB, so may as well attack these other needs, and if we use our top pick on a DE I wouldn’t mind at all…a starting duo of JJ and good rookie with McD as situational pass rusher can be pretty good…
And I am completely fine with this or any other point of view. The benefit is that the players are happy, coaches are happy for one or two more weeks out of the year. I get that. But it does not carry over, that's just a fact. I remember Saleh won against NE in Jan in 2024 and was saying how we were undefeated in that calendar year. Feels good? Sure. But did it ultimately matter for us? Absolutely not. But boy did this loss matter for NE, who finished with their worst record in the 20th century and got Maye as a result with 3d overall. THAT carried over even past the next regime. Who felt better at the end? And not for a week or two but for many years to come? Unfortunately it is not us, and it is not even close. So again, anyone can be a fan as they want to be. Want to be happy for an extra win or two to get 5 instead of 3 wins, sure, that's fine by me. And I will do my thing, hoping we do what we need to do to get the QB for next year, and yes have a higher pick for that. I still wanted Fields benched so that AD can have games like he did, so I could see more from Tanner, but yeah, I was not too thrilled when Atlanta muffed that punt
