This comes as no surprise to me: http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/...cientist-on-chemistry-of-jets-offensive-line/ October 11, 2008, 7:17 am Football Scientist on Chemistry of Jets? Offensive Line By KC Joyner Tags: Jets The Football Scientist, KC Joyner contributes weekly to The Fifth Down. His latest book is ?Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts.? After my Sept. 26 post that touted the proficiency of the Giants? offensive line in run blocking, I naturally received e-mails from Jets fans wanting to know how their blockers did in comparison. Jets linemen certainly have better individual reputations if their pedigrees are any indication. D?Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold were both 1st-round picks and Alan Faneca was one of the highest-profile free agents during the 2007-8 off-season. Their current 2008 metrics don?t agree with those pedigrees, however. Here are the numbers as they stand through the first four games: Blocker POA att POA yds YPA Defeated blocks Block win % Ferguson 25 93 3.7 5 80.0 Faneca 33 126 3.8 6 81.8 Mangold 32 124 3.9 3 90.6 Moore 28 118 4.2 6 78.6 Woody 31 140 4.5 3 90.3 (For those who might be new to this type of analysis, a point of attack (POA) attempt is given to a blocker whenever he is blocking at the spot where the running back starts to make his move upfield. A defeated block is given when the defender beats the linemen at or behind the line of scrimmage.) To put the block win percentages into perspective, consider that the top linemen in the league will typically have a block win percentage in the 85-90 range. Average linemen will end up around 80-85 percent and below-verage linemen have marks in the 70-79 range. That would indicate that Moore is a bit below average while Ferguson and Faneca are average. It also suggests that Mangold and Woody are the Jets? run-blocking stalwarts. The yards per attempt totals back that claim as well, as Jets ball carriers are doing much better in that area when running behind the right-side blockers. One of the other surprising findings in the metric review is how sparingly the Jets use the counter play. That play was Faneca?s specialty in Pittsburgh, but New York has called the play only twelve times this year and Faneca has been a blocker at the point of attack on only five of those runs. Part of that has to do with the Jets? reliance on zone blocking, but it also illustrates a point I made in ?Blindsided.? Teams with an edge in physical talent will usually use put in personnel-based systems that allow them to take full advantage of player vs. player mismatches. In the running game, that usually means an offense will use a lot of man blocking plays like counters, isolations and off tackle runs. When a coach feels that his team either does not have a physical edge or has a personnel weakness or two that needs to be covered up, he will normally use a scheme-based system. In the run game, this means a heavier reliance on slant and stretch plays that Denver and Indianapolis have made famous over the past decade. I may be off base on this, but I believe that the Jets feel they have a blocking weakness in Ferguson and possibly one in Moore as well. If that is the case, it explains why they aren?t trying to use Faneca?s signature counter run more often and are calling so many slant runs. It also suggests that they might be in the market for more offensive line help this off-season.
So according to this chart, we have an average to above average run blocking line...cool. 80.0+81.8+90.6+78.6+90.3=421.3/5=84.26 I wonder how our TEs scored...they may even put us above 85. And we know our pass-blocking is above average. Just wait 'til next year when they've had a year together. It is a new line so the jelling process hasn't completely occurred yet.
Really interesting read. I'd really like to draft a young lineman. I don't doubt we'll do it. How sick would it be to get Duke Robinson.
The title of your post is misleading. By these numbers, Ferguson is average, not below average. And he's doing about the same as Faneca and we expected more from him.
I maybe mistaken but I thought Brick's strength was his Pass blocking which was why he was drafted in the first place. The fact that his run blocking is average may be a question of him not being coached up.
Yeah that caught my eye when I saw your subject line. I actually saw this in NYTimes yesterday when it was posted there, and had in my head that only Moore was below average (and barely, at that). I think a fairer way to have described this conclusion is that Moore, Ferguson, and Faneca (so far) are all nearly equivalent as "barely average" run blockers, and Mangold and Woody are league stars in this aspect of the game. The range of the first three is all 78.6-81.8, grouped tightly around a category border, and I suspect there is some "margin of error" you need to respect in drawing conclusons. All of that said with the assumption that these numbers actually mean anything beyond a very gross estimate of what a player has done to this point (i.e. they aren't like passer ratings)
i'm glad D. Woody appears to be doing well. Many of us did not like the signing that much, including me.
Yeah, that's what I thought - and you could hopefully factor in some improvement from Faneca as the season progresses. I'd still like to see more linemen brought in in the draft or FA next year...
Nice, informative article. I'm interested to see how these numbers change as the line continues to gel.
I want to draft a developmental lineman, but no more first round picks. We've used enough money on the offensive line, and it's doing fine. I don't doubt that Brick and Moore aren't doing great with the run, but I assume that will change as they play more together. Now we need to get gamebreakers in offense, either at WR or HB, and we need a good young safety. D-Line depth will be big.
Don't forget, we aren't going to have a 1st round pick next year, that will go to GB Do they do any anlysis that compares this kind of analysis with the production of the RB? i.e. can we determine how good or bad TJ is based on how he has capitalized on the average blocking? Probably I don't understand the analysis enough.
These numbers are based on very small sample sizes - they are simple proportions based on 25-to-31 attempts. The margin of error on those percentages is roughly +- 15 percentage points, which means that these numbers are pretty much meaningless.
A very interesting read, indeed. This comes as a bit of a surprise to me because I always considered Moore an ABOVE average run blocker. As for Ferguson, it is common knowledge that he is not a strong run blocking tackle.
As Twain said, "lies,d@mn lies, and statistics" Part fo the reason I ddin't bother to crosspost it here when I read it yesterday -- seems like a bit of a stretch to me, and/or based on too small of a sample, as statjeff pointed out
D-Brick is never going to be a stud against the run. He is doing OK in the run game, and very well in the passing game. it is a small sample, but it supports what I have been arguing for a few weeks now. People have been beating up on Woody, and I thought he has been playing very well. So far the weak points in the running game have been Faneca and Moore. Moore would be a good back up, but needs to be replaced next off season as starter
Everyone just blindly hates Brandon Moore. He is probably our best run blocker. This sample size is too small to make any conclusions.
Our pass blocking is very very good, but I think the run blocking has been unacceptable... A large part of it has to do with the playcalling, because a lot of times when give the opportunity to run up the gut Thomas Jones has been able to fire off 6/7 yard gains... but all too often they run some cute play that goes for 2 yards at best. We may need more linemen but I think a large part of it is coaching.
