Sam Darnold options

I could be wrong, but following is my understanding of the situation.

1. If we trade Sam, we will not owe him salary, but I believe that any bonus money that was spread out would accelerate into the 2021 cap.
2. As to whether it's a good idea to bring Sam back and not pick up his 5th year option, that would depend upon why you're bringing him back, what you think of Sam, and your perspective on the whole situation. If you're results oriented, then it will be a good idea if Sam plays well, and a bad idea if he doesn't. If you're a fan of Sam, then you'll probably think it a good idea, if you like Sam but think he's ruined or needs a change of scenery, then it probably won't be a good idea. If Douglas brings Sam back without picking up the 5th year option and Sam plays well, Sam could decide to test FA and it could cost the Jets a lot more to keep him than it would have otherwise, or he could decide that he doesn't want to stay and that would be a black eye for Douglas unless Douglas drafts a QB in 2021 or 2022 who winds up being better than Sam. If Douglas brings Sam back either with the idea of using him as a bridge to 2022 because he doesn't like any of the QBs likely to be available in FA or any of the QBs outside of Lawrence in the 2021 draft, and doesn't plan to keep him long term, it could be a good idea.

Financially, it doesn't make sense to pick up the option. It would be better to move on from Sam either in 2021 or 2022, and be able to re-start the QB salary cap, but if Sam were to play lights out next year and Douglas decide that he wants to keep Sam long term, it could be seen a bad idea if it winds up costing more to keep Sam or if Sam decides to leave in FA.

Sam's teammates may have a different perspective, too. They may really like him. They understand it's a business and could understand why Douglas didn't pick up the option with Sam, but they could still get upset.

In terms of trading Sam, Douglas might get more for him now than he would next year if Sam starts again and plays poorly. Conversely, if he keeps Sam has the CS really work with Sam, and then showcases him in preseason, he could wind up getting a lot more for Sam, but at that point, he'd probably opt to keep him. That could go either way.

It's risky either way. In a very real way, it's almost a no-win situation for Douglas. He could be damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. I don't envy him. He and the new HC will either totally earn their salary on that decision or will show that they made a mistake, that could define their careers. Then again, they could be seen as geniuses, or it might be meh whatever happens.

3. If the 5th year option is picked up, Sam will get somewhere between $21-25 million. I agree that he isn't worth that, and I don't think Douglas will pick it up unless he is totally committed to Sam and the new HC is totally on board with that. I don't think Sam or Sam's agent would be open to renegotiating Sam's contract lower with incentives as some posters haver posited. I'm not even sure if the CBA would allow that.

 

I've been a proponent of another option which would give the Jets more flexibility in the next two years. After this season ends Darnold could be signed to a new contract for 2021 and 2022; I would expect his value to be about ten to twelve million per year that could be bolstered with incentives. That would be far cheaper than the fifth year option. This would give Darnold the opportunity to get a coach who can improve those things recognized as flaws in his game before he was ever drafted. Jeremy Bates failed him and Adam Gase failed him and the question has now arisen if Gase even wanted him here at all. Whether another quarterback is drafted has little bearing on this decision; competition is a good thing as is keeping all available options open.

Right now it's hard to determine where Darnold's ceiling lies - he could be anywhere between a viable starter, a backup or valuable to minimal trade bait but there's no way to determine that without putting in the proper effort. I've said to make this a two year plan but there's no reason it couldn't be longer if Douglas sees the value.

 

Picking up Sam’s option pays him the top 10 of QB’s. Basically that won’t happen. So essentially he will be playing for his next contract next year.

 

Not worth picking up Sam's 5th year option; even if he's back next year, there's a very good chance he'll at least have to compete for the starting job.

 

It's not that high and it depends on whether he hits the requirement for having played 75% of the offensive snaps in his first three years. Over 75% and he would get paid the average of the salaries of the QBs in places 3-20 on the salary list. Under 75% and he would get paid the average of places 3-25 on the list. Last I looked he's very close to the 75% mark.

First-round picks will receive a base salary equal to the cap percentage average of the transition tag for the player’s position in his fourth season but using the appropriate third- through 25th-highest PYS if they have not been selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot and did not (a) partake in at least 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays in two of his first three regular seasons or (b) play a cumulative average of 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons or (c) log at least 50 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three regular seasons.

First-round picks will receive a base salary equal to the cap percentage average of the transition tag for the player’s position in his fourth season but using the appropriate third- through 20th-highest PYS at the player’s position if they have not been selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot but did (a) partake in at least 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays in two of his first three regular seasons or (b) play a cumulative average of 75 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive plays over the course of his first three regular seasons or (c) log at least 50 percent of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in each of his first three regular seasons.
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2020 NFL CBA Explained: 5th Year Option in Rookie Contracts – Front Office Football (frontofficenfl.com)

 

great info i did not know that about 5th year options....

 

Looking further it appears that Darnold now has about 79% of the snaps in his three years; the Jets would need to run well over 100 plays without him to knock him down to the lowest option year category.

That means it appears his option would cost the Jets between $25.4 and $28.2 million depending on whether the "PYS" (presumed to be prior year salary) is based on contract average or total cash for the year. Either way, it is way too much to pay for what he has proven to be worth.

 

Remember the option is only guaranteed for injury. They can very well pick it up this year and still cut him at the end of next season if he doesn’t step up . If he does they have another year of leverage to negotiate a longer deal.

 

While I don't think your value is off, I do think that Sam and his agent would rather gamble on themselves than take a lower contract like $10-$12 million.

Taysom Hill does other things but he's making $10.5 million. Mariota makes $8.8 million. Jacoby Brissett makes $27 million.

Darnold could gamble on himself, and even replicate year one and two in terms of production and end up with an offer in the $15-17 million range and the chance to start somewhere else.

This also hinges on if the Jets take a QB in the draft. If they do then there's no way he would extend himself to conceivably end up as the backup at the back end of that extension after next year.

 

As of now it looks like 2021 is going to be the prove it year for Sam. JD realizes he’s doesn’t have a full assortment of offensive weapons and wants Sam to succeed. However if Sam doesn’t take a step up and continues with durability issues I can’t see JD continuing to stick with him.

 

Thanks, I didn't know they could pick it up and still cut him. With his injury history, however, I don't think it would be wise for them to pick it up.

 

That is not correct according to the article I linked above:

Starting with players selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, players can earn different fifth-year option salaries based on their performance in the first three seasons of their career. The fifth-year option for such players is fully guaranteed at the time it is exercised rather than on the first day of the league year of the option. If such a player’s fourth-year salary is not fully guaranteed for skill, cap and injury, it becomes guaranteed as well when the option in exercised.
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On the other hand a new contract going forward need not be guaranteed, again making it a better opportunity for the team.

 

I'm not sure how much the CBA regulates incentives but maximizing such, especially on snap count, may make it easier for him to sign and "play for pay." I'm sure the team would be okay laying out the cash if it was paying off.

 

Nvm. Had an old link. I was incorrect

 

I was in this same camp, and might still be. I'm leaning that JD has to decide. Sam is in our future, or Sam is NOT in our future. I know that's a tough call with Sam's potential versus his up and down play. But it's the type of call JD should make.

If JD decides to march forward with Sam, then he needs to pay him (to keep him around at a reasonable fee).

If JD decides Sam is NOT the way to go forward, then he needs to cut the chord.

The half way approach of drafting a new gun BUT keeping Sam around but not his 5th but maybe his 5th yada yada yada just clouds and confuses our offensive direction going forward. JD needs to pick a path forward and go all in. I like Sam and I'm fine with keeping him. I'm also fine with 2021 being a throw away year with a rookie QB, new coaching staff, and go from there.

But ask me tomorrow and I'll probably have a whole new perspective. Too many moving parts!

 

Daniel Jeremiah @ NFLN said that Sam would be a STAR in Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona offense.

 

I thought you were talking about the fifth year option? If that's incentive based on his snap count then he's reached it and the fifth year option must be picked up shortly after the draft.

If you're talking about an extension separate of that for $10-12 million he has no good reason to sign it. He'd be better of trying to improve his play and seeking a higher contract either from the Jets or on the open market thereafter. Quarterbacks are too highly paid and hotter commodities than to settle.

Teddy Bridgewater is a good example. While he did play better than Sam has, all you need is one coach to believe in him.

 

Its sour grapes. Jeremiah wanted the GM job and didn't get it, now he's trolling the Jets

 

Didn't know that. I assumed that it was fully guaranteed. That makes a bit if difference and it more reasonable to take up the 5th year option.

Damn, should have read further! That's not a viable option then.