I did the research on this and take it to the bank. I'm assuming that the Jets drop the next two. It's not looking good and against two top defenses on the road and with our offensive ineptitude so profound I'm taking the sky is falling approach here and going from there. Without looking too far ahead the Jets can clinch a spot this Sunday if the Fish, Chiefs and Colts lose while the Jets win. All those teams play early games so we will know going into the Steelers game whether they can clinch a spot or not. Now, providing there is no clinch this Sunday here goes. In all tiebreaker scenarios a division win is worth more than a conference win and likewise a conference win is worth more than a non-conference win. That said Buffalo is the most important game remaining on the schedule with the next most important Pittsburgh and then the least important Chicago as far as tiebreakers are concerned. If the Jets go 1-2 the rest of the way only beating Buffalo to finish 10-6 the odds are very good they are in. This Buffalo win eliminates the Fish based on conference record even if the Fish win out to go 10-6. One lose by the Chiefs to go 2-1 the rest of the way to finish 10-6 and the Jets own the tiebreaker based on conference record. If SD goes 3-0 to finish 10-6 they win the division title over KC if the Chiefs lose just once thus eliminating a tie breaker scenario with SD. One Indy loss gives them 7 losses thus eliminating them. Three Colts wins gives them the division over Jax even if the Jaguars win their last two games to go 10-6. We want to avoid tiebreakers against Jax and SD. Since Jax, NYJ and SD would all have the same conference record providing SD wins out and Jax goes 2-1 only losing to the Colts there are not not enough common games between the teams to determine tie breaker #4. So it will come down to a 5th tiebreaker which is strength of victory and I have no idea how that is determined. Only one of those three teams would make the playoffs.
Ugh. I really appreciate the work on this. Honestly. Not being sarcastic at all. It's just that. . . well. . . . ugh. I'm so disgusted with this annual exercise.
No doubt. Was barely over a week ago that we were dreaming about #1 seed, 1st round bye, homefield, etc. I honestly cannot remember the last time the Jets clinched a Playoff berth before the last game of the season. Nope. I'm afraid we'll all be on the edge of our seats during that Buffalo game.
What happens if we lose to the Steelers, but then beat Chicago. Does Buffalo become a must-win to make the playoffs?
I hear you guys...it sucks that it comes down to this again. I'll relax and watch the early games and who knows maybe we get a pleasant surprise with a loss or two by those teams and then get nerved out during the Jets game.
That depends on a whole host of other things and suffice to say too complicated and not worth getting into until this Sundays games shake out. Rest assured we need one conference win and I'm going with the fact that we have a hell of alot better chance vs Buffalo at home then Pitt on the road.
So if Indy wins next week they are pretty much in? I seriously doubt they'll lose @OAK or home against the Titans
Kind of yeah... conf record is important to keep the Dolphins from 2nd place and because the first tie-breaker is conference record.
Makes you appreciate 1998 that much more if you were around to see it. We stomped three division opponents, all of whom also made the playoffs, and coasted to the bye. Best month of watching football in my life.
While I would like to trust your analysis and appreciate threads like this one, I thought that for ties against teams not in the division (i.e., anyone but the Dolphins), division record is completely irrelevant. I also thought that record against common opponents goes ahead of conference record if head-to-head does not resolve the tie.
Correct. Tiebreakers outside the divison go to conference record first if there is no head to head match up. Tiebreakers inside the division are common games if the head to head and division records are tied. Jets-Fish common games are the AFC North and NFC North in which both are 4-4. The next tiebreaker would be conference record. The difference would be the Jets would have 8 conference wins and the Fish 7.
I don't know if someone else responded to this with what I'm about to say because reading this got me to thinking if it's even happened this decade, and the results that came off the top of my head infuriated me. Last year- Last week of the season Under Mangini- The lone playoff birth was clinched with a victory over the Raiders on the last week of the season. Under Herm- All three playoff births clinched on the last week of the season (wins vs Oakland and Green Bay, loss to St Louis in OT but made it in with 10 wins anyway,) It's unbelievable the shit this team makes us go through every year. At least when looking at those playoff runs there's only two first round exits despite the fact they're a staple of wild card weekend. You'd actually have to go back to 98 to be able to enjoy a game on week 17 knowing your team is in the playoffs.
Indeed. Well then I suppose it was well taken. Different year, same old shit. I'm not expecting this to happen by any stretch, but what I would give for the Jets to go into Heinz and take a shit on the Steelers. Every Jets game you can always spot at least one Steelers jersey despite the fact they aren't playing. Plus it'd be nice to see people like Al Dorow shut the fuck up. Ah well. Dare to dream.
if the jets get to 11 wins they make the playoffs - doesn't matter what other teams do---10 wins tie breakers might come into play an dour strength of victory is only like .396...chicago is .343 i think so they fall under the good record but who have they beaten group the jets are now in.
It would be an act of God if we didn't make the playoffs at this point. We have a two game lead with three games left.
Why would you say something like that and put the hex on us?? :lol: Seriously though.......this was the year we were finally going to take the big step. Win the division. Get a bye. Dare I say, win the SB. That was a realistic goal, right? Instead, it's just another year hoping we just make the playoffs by week 17. I guess this year has been hard to take because I bought in so hard. Who knows, we could still get hot, but sh*t....we aren't even winning the division.
