Teams make adjustments. What was true 10 years ago is not true any more. Guys with some potential are picked in the 1st round now days. Teams are not afraid to miss and take a risk because reward is too high, as @REVISion pointed out. They are taking chances in the 1st round, and that drastically increases the probability of success. And the higher the better chance. Let's look at recent history play-off probabilities since 2000. We don't have to count 2025 rookie class yet. Here are the 1st round guys who led the teams to play-offs or will make it this year: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Trevor, Mac Jones, Stroud, Caleb, Daniels, Maye, Nix, Pickett (they made play-off in spite of him, so can remove from the list) Total selected 19. Play-off success rate: 63%. Adjust for Pickett: 58%. 2nd round or worse play-offs: Hurts, Purdy. Total selected 33. Play-off success rate: 6% And we can adjust for Mac Jones too, but then we also have to adjust for Purdy, they both played nearly identical under Shanahan. It's very clear however that picking QB high, ideally high in round 1, matters if you want to make play-offs. If you do not have a QB, you need to pick as high as possible in round 1. If you do, this is the time to gamble with lower round extremely low probability picks. Which is exactly what Philly did with Hurts (they had Wentz) and what 49ers did with Purdy (they drafted Lance #3 overall same year). That's smart. You have a starter and you take a shot at a possible back-up with some upside. What's not smart is to cheap out on a top QB prospect and pick in later round when you have shit at QB. Well, you can do that hoping the guy can turn into a long term cheap back-up, but just know you will need to spend a top pick a year later either way. And depending on the record and other factors, you may not even be in position to do it. Which is not to say you need a pick a guy in the 1st round you do not like. But if you think you can get a Goff/Ryan type, and you don't have a QB, we need to do everything we can withing reason to get him high in the 1st.
Selecting a Goff/Ryan type isn't the problem for the Jets, it is getting them to become Goff/Ryan after drafting them that is the major problem, the problem that has held us back for a decade plus.
This is another viewpoint that supports the notion that realistically, if you want a good QB, a QB that will take you to the playoffs, you pretty much have to get that guy in the first round. The odds of getting a great QB in later rounds is significantly less for the league overall. And specifically for the Jets, it’s worse. We have NEVER picked a QB in any round outside of the first that has been any good. Let that sink in. We’ve NEVER done it. I am not counting Geno when he sucked for us and somehow was resurrected like 10 years later in Seattle. Great point on the fact that more and more teams are taking more chances in round 1 which then of course affects these statistics…and that is a reflection of how much the game has changed. Even 20 years ago, it was hard but doable to win with a strong defense and good running game to kind of hide a subpar QB…shoot that got us to 2 consecutive AFCCG’s…but that’s where it stalls out. But the rules have changed…it’s a different game. You can’t hit the QB, you can’t even touch receivers most games…just those two rules alone have changed the nature of the game. Playing defense is extremely difficult now. So teams are forced to take chances on QBs more and more. We see it all the time where QBs are elevated. It’s interesting how now, in the middle of the college season, what was supposed to be a promising QB class is looking pretty poor. But I’m sure by combine time and personal workouts and predraft hype, a bunch of these QBs will rise up the draft boards. Just the nature of the beast. So for us, I’d be fine passing on a first round QB if none of these guys are deemed worthy of the pick, but if we do that, I’d just as soon punt the pick to 2027…I don’t see much of an upside to using a later pick on a QB when the overwhelming odds are he won’t develop. That would be true across the league, but especially more so true for us. We have literally the same HC as we’ve had for the last 20 years…a rookie defensive guy trying to figure it all out… that is not the guy to develop a QB.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t take a crack at a first round quarterback, but I am saying that if we don’t, I don’t believe it’s a wasted pick to try in the later rounds. And yes, of course teams are taking more shots on QB’s early now. The league has made it near impossible to win without a top ten guy. The days of winning with Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are over, but teams used to be able to win with those guys hence why there was less urgency to try to find a good one. I’m ok with taking Mendoza but he is the best of a bad bunch and the only first round QB IMO. His lack of athletic upside and arm talent makes me nervous along with how well every QB performs with Cignetti at Indiana. On the flip side, he is not a complete statue even if somewhat limited, and he probably has just enough arm to be a NFL QB even if not top tier. And he’s also a really good quick decision maker at the collegiate level.
I also definitely don’t think Simpson is anything more than a game managing backup at best. A mid round pick. His arm is very weak outside the numbers. Very limited upside in my opinion. The stat lines against Oklahoma and LSU look a lot better than he played. Those are the best two defenses he’s faced. He is pretty risk adverse though which is good for a backup.
Can't help but think if LaNorris Sellers had Bama's offensive line (a brick wall) with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard as WRs just how incredible of a season he would be having.
