First Round QB's Are a Crapshoot

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Joe Willie White Shoes, Apr 9, 2006.

  1. MSUJet85

    MSUJet85 ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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    And without Maynard, Snell, Boozer, Sauer, an oline as well as a great defense, Namath is nothing much either. He was more or less a QB that got a team good enough to go all the way while at his prime, however his career other than the SB wasn't much either. A QB is as good as the surrounding pieces around him, no matter who we get as QB if our pieces aren't in place he is set up for failure, with that said any QB with the right supporting cast can do very well in this league so long that they can be able to lead the team. What does that mean? No need to trade up with all the holes on the team. We don't have to use the #4 pick on a QB if the Jets feel none of these QBs would fit our system, and could get one later if they felt that the QB is capable or if we decided to go with a QB with the #4 pick to pick the best from the QBs remaining whether it is Cutler/Leinart/Young.
     
  2. winstonbiggs

    winstonbiggs 2008/2009 TGG Bill Parcells "Most Respected" Award

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    Nice out you left yourself there. Of course if you don't believe in one of these guys you don't make a move to pick them. However if you do believe in one of them you should make sure you get him even if you have to give up other picks to get him.

    About the supporting cast to Namath. Most of the key players were late round draft picks or FA signings. Matt Snell was a No. 1 pick in 63 out of Ohio State, Don Maynard was an NFL washout picked up as an FA out of Canada, Sauer was signed as an FA, Boozer was a 6th round draft choice, Pete Lammons was a 14th round pick of the Browns, John Elliot was a 7th round pick. Namath was the key draft piece of the SB team. When we had the pick and the QB we wanted was there we grabbed him and he was the center piece to the only SB team in the Jets history.

    With a mediocre QB the Jets would never have competed with the Raiders or Chiefs let alone won a SB. Namath talent was the key to their winning the championship. Say what you want about the other players it was Namaths ability to pressure teams with his quick release and fast reads that made that team great. A healthy game manager QB like Pennington on that team and they would have gotten their asses kicked in the AFC playoffs. A game manager would have been absolutely buried in the ground by the Chiefs, Raiders or Colts. It was Namath's ability to instantly spread the ball anywhere on the field that put doubt into those D's it wasn't Snell, Sauer, Lammons or Maynard. They were important pieces but Namath was the trigger man and he was the greatest passer of his day when healthy.

    As bad as the Jets have been historically there are very few chances to pick this high in the draft. Obviously the team has to make a decision on whether or not one of the three QB's has great stamped on him. If they do it is worth trading the farm to get them. You can win in the NFL without a great QB but you can't be a great team and make multiple runs without a great one and it is rare that a team with a mediocre QB wins one. Every player we can draft other than the great QB can be gotten through FA if necessary. The Giants were a team filled with holes and stunk. They wanted Eli they got him. Last year they got themselves a starting RT and WR without a first round pick. The money they would have spent on a first rounder was put into FA instead. Obviously you don't make a move unless you're convinced Young, Lienart or Cutler are the guy, but if you believe they are, and that is a management decision, to take a tackle or a DE instead would be among the stupidest moves this franchise could make.
     
    #42 winstonbiggs, Apr 10, 2006
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2006
  3. Joe Willie White Shoes

    Joe Willie White Shoes Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree with your comments, but only want to point out that building a team today is very very different than building one 40 years ago. Scouting has become far more sophisticated and there are very few mysteries or surprise players. You can't compare the two eras.
     
  4. BLITZKRIEG

    BLITZKRIEG New Member

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    Alot of times they are, but I don't think Leinart / Young / Cutler are going to have much trouble adjusting to the NFL....

    Cutler is a hard worker, with great work ethic. It's no wonder he's been compared to B. Favre. The same kind of mentality, and attitude on the field. This kid will make it due to his desire, and his winner mentality in my opinion. He's got a great head on his shoulders....

    As for Young, this guy has all the skills to become a great player in the NFL. He can throw, he can run, and regardless of his wonderlic score, he knows how to get the ball in the endzone and win the big games, using his brain in the process. I think Young will be very solid for whoever drafts him, and I'm not buying into his lack of intelligence drama. The wonderlic scores are meaningless, and Young's a great athelete....

    Leinart is the most NFL ready QB, and for that reason he should be the first off the board. There is one major downside to Leinart that not many people mention. He's one of the most emotionally sensitive QB's to come out of college. It's been brought to my attention that QB M. Leinart cries before every game as well. He's so emotional, and afraid of failure, that he cries it all out before stepping on the field. That could be a problem for him if his transition to the NFL gets off to a poor start. It could damage him alot. He's still the best of the bunch, but it's something that should be taken into consideration...
     
  5. winstonbiggs

    winstonbiggs 2008/2009 TGG Bill Parcells "Most Respected" Award

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    Of course not but the trigger man is still the center of a team. When you're in position to take one and you don't have one it's a mistake not to do it. That is the key evaluation of this draft by Mangini and Tanebaum is there a must have QB who is going to be great in their opinion. If there is don't crap around get him.
     
  6. Duk Dodgers

    Duk Dodgers Active Member

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    Are you serious? Leinart cries before EVERY game. How long has he been doing this? :eek:hmy:

    In any case, I'm still sold on giving Chad P and Ramsey 1 year to prove there worth, meaning If I were GM I would do my best to address other needs like Oline and Dline in general. A franchise LT or DE would fit the bill just nicely for a team that has a need for both positions. Lets take advantage of this years so called 'deep draft' and fortify other positions of need. If the bears can make a splash with nothing but Defense and a favorable schedule I think we should stand to be a surprise team after we address some needs in the draft.
     
  7. Gunther

    Gunther Member

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    Uhmmm
    Before T.O came, who was McNabb throwing to. Hell does McNabb have any receivers as good as we have and I don't think they are great but solid?
     
  8. MSUJet85

    MSUJet85 ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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    While I agree that the QB is the most important part of the team and is the the leader, without the team that has talent, the QB is useless, I am certain that is why so many 1st round QBs have failed. While the QB is the most important piece, to trade the farm for him is sacrificing the team for 1 player. Remember that the Giants traded the farm for Eli Manning, when they could of had the SB winning QB and the farm. With at least 2 of the 3 QBs most likely being available at the spot with little separation between them, it is reckless to not only invest and gamble on taking a QB in the first place, but to compound it but trading up with a team that has as much holes as swiss cheese. The Jets right now are missing the foundation needed to build a contender for the title. With the players we have I would only consider Coles, Vilma and maybe (and this is a stretch) Baker or Jolley. So we are in badly of need to get it built, now just adding a QB while it would give us maybe a face of the franchise but without the actual strong franchise this is meaningless anyway. With the picks we have we could start building the foundation and in a couple of years compete for the title.
     
  9. winstonbiggs

    winstonbiggs 2008/2009 TGG Bill Parcells "Most Respected" Award

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    The Giants took Eli because they believed in him over Ben and Rivers. They also went from 4 & 12 to 11 & 6 in two seasons. Getting Eli was the catalyst in turning the Giants around. It energized the entire organization and fan base and the organization didn't allow lossing a couple of draft picks stop them from surrounding Eli with great talent. They went out and signed a RT and a WR to compliment him and fill holes. They are doing the same this year.

    The reality is early 1st round picks who have proved nothing cost a fortune to sign anyway. With the exception of QB's who have injury issues or have been out right busts there are almost never FA QB's available who can radically change your team. This year Cullpepper and Brees were available because of injury concerns. Almost every year there are great lineman, CB, RB, WR and LB available in FA, not true of QB. You and I may believe there is little seperation between these two or three QB's but that's not really the point. We have a very young staff and if they believe in one of these guys is the guy they should jump. Now if they don't believe it than I fully agree with you.
     
  10. hydro51

    hydro51 New Member

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    ::::Clap clap clap:::::beer: good post
     
  11. lebojets

    lebojets New Member

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    Glade to see you changed your mind about Ramsey.
     
  12. New York Mick

    New York Mick Banned

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    What does that have to do with Ramsey being good, numb nuts, the post was talking about getting high draft picks because the team sucks and getting QBs. As far as Ramsey he still is on a crappy team. He didnt play bad because he was on a crappy Washington team and then got picked up by a team ready to make a run at the superbowl. He got picked up by us.
     
    #52 New York Mick, Apr 10, 2006
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2006
  13. MSUJet85

    MSUJet85 ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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    I agree with that if they felt that Leinart since he would probably be the only one that we would actually need to trade up for, if they felt that he was far and away better then any of the other QBs then yes I don't mind them trading up, however if it is remotely close it isn't worth it to trade up
     
  14. JetsVilma28

    JetsVilma28 Well-Known Member

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    Carson Palmer's career is in trouble now to. Last I heard on ESPN, his injury could be career ending.
     
  15. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    This thread got my wheels turning. The original post actually, not the stuff discussed since.

    QB is the biggest crapshoot in the draft. Why? Well here is my thinking.

    QB is the only position on the field that the player themself cannot be fully projected from their own ability alone.

    RBs can do well without an OLine (see Barry Sanders.) An above-average RB can be great with a good OLine (see Emmitt Smith.)

    A good OL is arguable, since each individual runs as a unit, but guys like Pace and Ogden proved that you can anchor around an individual talent.

    WR can make or break themselves. I hate TO, but there is no arguning that the guy can flat out change a game on his own (when he decides to actually put in the effort.)

    TEs can make or break themselves. They can be considered successes by either concentrating on blocking or catching. If one can do both, he is gold.

    On the other side of the ball, you can judge a DE by his sacks or tackles. Those are very individual stats.

    DT is a bit harder, since there are more nuances to the position than at say, end. However, you can still judge a DT by his individual performance. Hell, if a guy can take on two blockers, he is worth money, since it only makes your ends better.

    LBs can be judged by tackles, and even sacks.

    All the secondary positions have the stats for tackles and INTs to show themselves off, not to mention the ability to play ST.

    Even STers can be judged individually. If they are returners, you can gauge them by yards, by speed, and even watching the way they run.

    Even kickers can be judged on a personal achivement basis.

    QBs however, are judged on a totally different scale. A mediocre QB with a great line, WRs, and OLine can be a fantasy great. This is the biggest perceived difference between Leinhart and Cutler. It has been speculated how each would play had they been on the other player's team. Hell, Dilfer and Johnson managed to win trophies, and I don't think anyone would say they are "franchise QBs." Eli and Rivers were considered the franchise guys in their draft, yet Big Ben made room on his trophy shelf in February.

    Yes, QB is important. There is no question, with the right tools, you will surely do better with a top-tier QB. However, if you have enough tools, QB becomes a moot issue. Just ask Kurt Warner. Now take a great QB and surround them with crap, and what do you get? Dan Marino? Brett Favre 2005?

    I'm sure people will disagree with my thought process, but I think it actually makes sense. Anyway, debate it if you like, or not, as you please.
     
  16. MSUJet85

    MSUJet85 ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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    That is the exact stance I stand by. Great minds think alike. :beer:
     
  17. winstonbiggs

    winstonbiggs 2008/2009 TGG Bill Parcells "Most Respected" Award

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    Alio if you don't think Kurt Warner wasn't a great QB before his thumb injury and various concussions, you weren't watching. He was the best player in the NFL the two years the Rams made it to the SB and is the reason they made it to the SB.
     
  18. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Due to salary cap, for every First Round Super Star you have on your team, you most likely have 3 or 4 "cheap, below average players". I would gladly give up my over paid First Round Super Stars if I could upgrade the cheap, below average positions. I would trade my 1st and 2nd round pics every year for proven trades or more draft pics (3nd on down). Every player would be blue collar and above average. My team would have NO weaknesses. I could attack you from ANY place on the field. If one of my players were an emerging super star, I would move him to a different position to keep him in check. My entire bench would be above average. Injurys would never affect us. I would rather have 4 Wayne Chrebets than 1 Terell Owens. I would rather have 5 Kevin Mawai's than 1 Orlando Pace. I would rather have 3 Brady's (one on the field and two on the bench) than 1 Pennington.
     
    #58 Footballgod214, Apr 10, 2006
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2006
  19. Serphnx

    Serphnx New Member

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    Eh...not really. Due to the salary cap, superstars no matter what position they were drafted in are what eat up the salary cap. Rookies don't make as much comparatively to the established vets. If you draft a guy in the 6th round and he becomes a star, unless he doesn't hold you up for a huge contract, you're going to be paying him like a star. It's just the higher you draft the more likely you get a star usually. But make no mistake, there are a ton of third rounders out there demanding huge money, I think TO was a third round pick, Curtis was a second rounder, K-Mac was a third, Coles was a third. I mean yeah, in the short term you're generally going to be paying less for a later pick than a first rounder, but outside of the top 8 or so picks, and maybe not even that many in most drafts, those salaries are very fair usually in terms of the production you usually get. Contracts like D-Rob's are the exception not the norm.
     
  20. AlioTheFool

    AlioTheFool Spiveymaniac

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    Maybe I didn't make myself clear enough. Sorry about that. I am not trying to say Warner wasn't a good QB. Best in the NFL I would say is debatable, but he was good. Was this because he has natural tools above and beyond any other QB, even at that point, or was he a product of his system?

    It's hard to not be successful when you have a Faulk or Bruce to back you up. I think Warner's biggest upside is his field leadership. I think the ability to lead your team in a tight spot is more valuable than your ability to scramble, or throw a 60 yarder on target.

    Phil Simms was not the greatest QB to ever play the game, but he had a great work ethic, and he treated his guys really well. His OLiners got Rolexes every Christmas. You would have to believe they were motivated to protect him, if for no other reason than to keep him making the money to gift them every year. (Please don't twist this, it's just an off-hand point. :up: )

    All in all, what I am saying is that a QB can be mediocre talent-wise, yet be ultra-successful in the NFL. The key is the tools around them. The only thing a QB can truly be measured on is an intangible. Does he have leadership?

    Here's a comparison. Now I know a lot of people don't like him, but I would think everyone can at least agree that Peyton Manning is one of the most talented QBs in the NFL. Until this past season, I am sure we can all agree the same way about Favre. If you had the choice of either, in their prime, who would you take? My guess is practically every single person asked would pick Favre, on the grounds of his leadership.

    Now look at Favre last year on a banged up mess of a team. He still has the arm. He still has pretty good scrambling speed for an "old man." He lacks a decent offense though. That equates to a crappy campaign last season.

    Manning had a great group around him last year. Arguably, if not for his big head, thinking he could do it all alone, and Vandy's choke, that was the SB champ last year.

    Instead, last year, a good team won the SB. Two good teams played in the game. Is Big Ben head and shoulders above everyone else in the league? Or was he helped out a lot by pretty good WRs and RBs? Is Hasselbeck even a starter on some other teams? Two great teams, with good leaders under center. I'll take that any day over a crapshoot QB who may be more concerned with his hairstyle than his Xs and Os.

    I'd love to party with Jessica Simpson, but then again, I don't play pro football. Given the choice, I'll keep my wife and look for a SB ring.
     

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