Re-Evaluate the Jets Schedule Without Darrelle Revis:

But they won't be. They'll be randomly spread out over the course of the game and most drives don't end in 7. Even then, how will we know that the reception on the scoring drive wouldn't have happened with Revis in the game? It's not like he holds opposing WR's to no catches any more. He gives up a 40% completion percentage instead of the 50% that Cro allows. That's like an extra catch a game most of the time.

Yeah but who is killing us now? The tight ends. The slot receivers. The guy Cro covers anyway and now and then somebody that Revis is on.

Yeah, it's a wide-scope issue but the Jets haven't been great on defense since 2009. They've been great at times and weak at times and not good enough to carry the team like they did in 2009.

Losing Revis just puts a spotlight on where the real issues are. It's not like having him guaranteed great results by the defense. A guy on the edge of the field can't take away the other team's offense unless the other team has nowhere else to go with the ball. That's what the Jets did in 2009 with their banzai blitz waves. They gave opposing QB's nowhere else to go with the ball.

 

Roughly speaking, I would say Revis saves the Jets about 7 points per game. Therefore in order to make up for the loss of Revis the Jets offense has to put up 7 more points per game than before.

Defensively, the Jets D-backfield is still pretty good. We still have Antonio Cromartie who is a #1DB on most NFL teams. That's the luxury the Jets have that other teams don't, we can fall back on Cromartie.


Personally I would resign Plaxico because he'll help the Jets score more points, which is what the team will have to do now that Revis is gone.

 

Why is everyone giving the Jets two losses to New England? Really? Jets WILL win at least one of those games.

 

San Francisco-L

vs. Houston-L

vs. Indianapolis-W

@New England-L

vs. Miami-W

BYE WEEK

@Seattle-L

@St. Louis-W

vs. New England-W

vs. Arizona-L

@Jacksonville-W

@Tennessee-L

vs. San Diego-L

@Buffalo-W

 

You fail to see how Revis changes this defense? You fail to see the best defensive player's impact in winning games?

If you think A.) all his impact really is, is just shutting down one side of the field and B.) shutting down his side of the field isn't that big a deal - you are in for quite the crash course with reality.

Sure the QB "just throws somewhere else" when Revis is out there. Now he'll just throw everywhere. See how fun that will be. Everyone who downplays Revis' impact and the CB position will now get to see what life is like for the rest of the league, that struggle with a pass-first league and rules that benefit that...

Nobody has anything like Revis, but there are of course better teams and better defenses. Today, teams that have good Defenses make up for the lack of a true shutdown corner with a great pass rush. Jets don't have that.

Other teams just make up for their defensive deficiencies by outscoring their opponents with high powered offenses. Jets and high powered offense are about as far apart as you can get, its laughable.

With Revis, the Jets had something unique. A real shutdown CB, in a league where CBs because of changes to the game, are beaten like a drum weekly. Nobody else builds their Defenses around CBs because nobody else had a Darrelle Revis. The Jets are about to find out how fun that is, people like you are going to see his true impact, and without even a "good" pass rusher its going to be a struggle defensively.

 

why will the jets win one of those games?

if you are assuming the jets split with new england id hope you also expect us to split with miami and buffallo

 

Where do you get that number from?

7 points is a lot of points. The best defenses in football give up about 14 points a game. The average defenses give up 21 and the bad defenses give up 28.

I'd be really surprised if an all-star at any position on defense is worth even a FG over a replacement level player. I'd be shocked if a CB was worth anything like a FG a game over the course of a season.

 

Let's not forget that throwing the ball against Antonio Cromartie is still no picnic for a quarterback. He's tall and has great hands. If you throw a jump ball up in his area he's going to be the one to come down with it, not your reciever. You have to be very exact with your passes against Cromartie, if you're off by a little (pass goes high, left, right of target) you are very likely to have it picked off.

So yeah, the Jets are hurt without Revis, but they are not without alternative and weapons... They can still stop you.

 

I don't think the pats are as good as everyone makes them out to be. They had no business winning the AFC last year. If Ben was playing at 100% the steelers would have beaten the broncos in the wildcard game and probably beaten the pats. Then, the ravens gift wrapped the AFC title game for them by dropping game winning passes and missing game tying field goals. Last year was a down year for the Jets..no doubt..but the Jets usually win a game vs the pats.

 

Great post. I totally agree.

 

Love him. plays like a man does.Reminds me of harrison when he was with the pats.

 

well, by your definition he is basically saying that revis is the difference between us being one of the best defenses(14ppg) and an average defense(21ppg)

i dont think he is far off. revis is that important to what we do in addition to being arguably the best defensive player in football

 

and the dolphins usually win a game against us.

 

San Francisco-L
vs. Houston-W
vs. Indianapolis-W
@New England-L
vs. Miami-L
BYE WEEK
@Seattle-L
@St. Louis-W
vs. New England-W
vs. Arizona-L
@Jacksonville-W
@Tennessee-W
vs. San Diego-W
@Buffalo-W

10-6. We own Houston and I think we split the next 2 home games....SF will get up for us but I do think we take Houston. We will split with MIA and NE.....I think we take the Pats at home. Still think final game vs BUF will be a play in game for both.....real flip of the coin on who wins it.

 

First of all, the Jets aren't currently one of the best defenses even with Revis. They allowed 28 points to the Bills and 20 to a really bad offense yesterday. They'd probably have allowed even more points if Bush hadn't gotten hurt and knocked out of the game early.

Secondly, it's almost impossible for a position like CB to have the kind of weight that turns a good defense average or an average defense bad. The replacement for that CB has to be really bad for that to happen.

There are two great CB's in play at all times. Is it really a 14 point difference if they are both replaced by average players? So their defense goes from 15 points a game to 29 points a game because they are only average? Not bad, average?

Think about what actually goes into scoring points. How often is the difference between a great CB and an average CB going to matter during the game? On maybe 2 or 3 throws? How does that turn into a TD difference a game?

With Revis out do the Jets go from a team that allows 16 TD's a season in the air to a team that allows 32? Really?

 

I so badly want to agree with a 10-6 record that goes something like this, and I think that we have a team that could do it, but anybody who has watched the Jets for long enough knows that a 4 game win streak that would put us in the playoffs to end the season is just about the most unlikely thing you could ask for.

 

I agree with you. I do think we beat SD....Rex Ryan's D has always confused Rivers and usually Norv finds a way to mess things up. Rivers is MONEY late in the year but I like that the game is at Metlife rather than out there.

That Bills game scares me. Surely they will make up for what happened in week 1. I thought BUF would beat NYJ at Metlife week 1 so who knows if that evens out with a loss at Ralph Wilson to end the year.

 

Have you seen the fucking Patriots attempt to play football recently? Everyone who predicts them to sweep the Jets is flat-out wrong. I think they'll split, but this time the away teams will win.