How well would Martinez play against the Giants starters? Probably not very well. I loved Streveler, but he didn't look so good in an actual regular season game. He couldn't throw nearly as well as Zach Wilson and that's saying something.
I would consider 4-5 wins as utter disappointment. We won 5 games last year. We need to improve from that. We brought the core back. To me it has to be >5 wins, and ideally 7-9 and competing for play-offs later in the season. Otherwise, what's the point of getting AG if he delivers same as Saleh? We are not starting from scratch, there is some talent on this roster. We need to strive to do better.
there is some talent on the roster, you’re correct. But as overall units, not so much other than OL and RB. WR unit- trash. LB’s- trash. DL- serviceable, DB’s - servicable, TE’s - trash beyond our rookie prospect. We have some solid young players to build around, but we’re still much closer to starting from scratch than we are to being successful.
I’d swap DL and LB’s personally. The defensive line got pushed around last year and Q isn’t quits the force he was 2-3 years ago. Sherwood and Williams are a formidable pair. Most teams end up with two linebackers on the field more than they need a third. McDonald got a lot of gimme sacks last year that boosted his numbers. He gets driven into the stands in the run game and Jermaine Johnson is coming back from a major injury. The defensive line scares the fuck out of me.
I would say 4-5 wins should be the realistic expectations. The OL improved, outside of that I don't see a single group that got better or didn't get worse. Glenn losing with a bad QB, the worst WR room in the league, rookies starting at TE/S/RT and a brand new OC isn't comparable to Saleh in any way.
This If we wanted to rank our team by unit, how would we do it? QB - D maybe C if he plays decently well this year, but to me, C is average, and Fields has been a below average QB thus far so until he shows it on the field, I’ll give it a D. OL - I’d say maybe a B at this point…I do think we’ve gotten better, but honestly 4 of the 5 guys are here from last year and we weren’t very good last year either…I’m giving a B assuming Olu stays healthy all year (which he didn’t play all games last year) and Membou plays well…possibly could get to an A if we really gel and pummel the ball, but let’s see how it plays out RB - I’d probably give us an A here, maybe a B, but I’m optimistic on Hall bouncing back and I love having depth here with Allen, Davis, and even a couple of the other rookies have looked good in camp and preseason games…Donovan especially WR/TE - I’d say D and mostly because we have GW, but this could possibly be an F, and I do think this group is among the worst in the league. If Mason Taylor really plays well and if one of other guys steps up maybe this improves to a C but right now, I can’t give it any better than a D Offense overall averages to maybe a C, but that means all those groups are weighted equally, and we all know they aren’t. So our offense may end up closer to a D than a C, but we’ll see. In terms of team rankings, this feels like a bottom third offense in the league; I’m just hoping we are closer to 20th in yards and points than we are to 32nd…also we don’t know yet if our rookie OC will be great or will suck…nothing to go on there so we’ll have to wait and see. On D, it’s a bit tough because we have some great pieces but many of them (sauce, Q) played down last year…I’m going to assume that was an aberration due to the coaching changes and general dysfunction rather than a sign of a downward trend that will continue. So if we assume that players like Q and Sauce bounce back, and if we can get anything out of JJ, then maybe our D looks like: DL - I’m feeling a C here…I think Q can bounce back and I think McD can still rush the passer, and that Tufule (spelling?) guy has flashed in the games so far, but I think JJ won’t be back 100% as Achilles is a tough injury for a burst/explosive type player, and until we prove we can field some DTs that can stop the run effectively, I’m being cautious. I can see this rating improve to a B if we find a DT from the guys we have in camp, if McD can hold up and improve a bit against the run, and if JJ can contribute meaningfully. But there are a bunch of “if’s” there so I’m being a bit pessimistic here. LB - I’m actually pretty happy here…at least a B and could be an A…we really only have two guys in QW and Sherwood, but they are both rangy, fast, QW hits hard, and honestly most of the time we will only have two on the field anyway. Our depth may not be great, but if QW and Sherwood are both on their game, I feel pretty good here. DB - I’d say a B here probably…I still think Sauce is a top cover guy, but I feel like Stephen’s is not an upgrade from DJ Reed and is more likely a downgrade, but if AG was ok with the change, I’ll trust him to evaluate DBs and maybe Stephen’s fits AG’s system better? Safeties didn’t look great against the Giants, but we’ll see. I think overall our secondary is pretty good, but I could also see others calling this a C grade as well… So defense for me rounds to about a B- I guess Pair a C or D offense and a B defense and how many wins does that add up to? I still say somewhere like 4-6 wins feels likely, and I don’t see this team competing for a playoff spot late in the year. We’ll see how the team gels and how it all plays out…who knows, maybe our OC turns out to be great? Maybe AG’s tough leadership makes this team better than the sum of its parts? All possible.
Coaching should be improved. It's not like we are tearing things down. Yes, we lost Rodgers, and I know you don't like Fields, but Rodgers also was a shell of himself last year. The only real loss we had was Davante, and we won 3 in 11 games with him last year. If old coaches who stunk got us 5 games, and before that 7 with Zach and Boyle at QB, I expect new one to do better than 5. Most of that talent is still here. There is simply no excuse for a good coach to do 5 wins or less. If we win 5 or less, I would say things are not looking good as far as coaching is concerned, even more so than the players. I want to see improvement in coaching/FO from last year. Winning same or less than Saleh/Brick/JD with similar roster is not it.
You may say that AR was a shell of his former self, and regardless of the surrounding drama, his stats were: 3,987 yards 63% completion 28 TDs 11 picks 90.5 QBR I don’t think Fields is better than that…so like AR or not, I think as far as on the field play, we have a downgrade at QB. Now, Fields does bring another dimension with the running game that AR does not have, and it’s a different offense, but while I agree that the coaching staff may be improved (still to be proven, by the way), I don’t think our teams are really comparable as much. I think the offense will struggle to put up a lot of yards and more importantly points because I think we’ll be settling for more FGs than we should, but I also think our D has lost talent…our DL two years ago was much better than we are now I think, and I think our secondary is going to miss Reed as CB1b to Sauce’s CB1a. I think it’s possible that the coaches are better, and more so by the end of the year as they go through growing pains, but it may not show up much in the Wins column necessarily. So if we only end up with say 5 or 6 wins, but the team is playing more disciplined, is looking tougher, and the players are buying into AG, then that doesn’t necessarily mean that the coaching staff is worse
Rodgers as a shell of himself is still better than Fields. His 28 TDs last year is more than any season of Fields, passing and rushing combines. His yardage beats Fields best season by 1k yards. His accuracy beats any full season of Justin Fields. I think you're conflating how we feel about Rodgers (and rightfully so after what we expected) with the actual reality. This is a downgrade at QB, no matter how you slice it.
He opted out of runs a lot in spite of facing some of the least stacked boxes in NFL. He was also immobile. Opted out of a lot of TD runs to pad TD stats. More importantly had the worst completion % over expected than any starting QB and some back-ups (34th overall). There is a reason why AR's both passer rating AND QBR was WORSE than Fields' last year. I do not buy losing AR as an excuse for 5 wins or less this season. To me if coaching is better, we need to do better, this is not some rebuild, where being on the bottom like Detroit's 1st year was the expectation. This is more like Detroit's second year, where we need to see some improvement.
Yeah maybe but Rodgers also road blocks any sort of tough hard nosed accountability culture that Glenn clearly wants to build. I think we all recognized what a cancer Rodgers was to the locker room and despite the nice statistical output, it didn’t translate to wins. He also engineered an absolutely garbage offense. We threw a lot more in the red zone because he wanted the stats. We were 30th in the league in rushing touchdowns last year.
Detroit's first year they had Jared Goff who in his absolute worst year made Justin Fields look like... Justin Fields. I'd argue that 3-13 team is right on par with this year's Jets team. Solid run game, one good WR, the rest are shit. The only difference is that D was abysmal.
Oh I'm not arguing literally anything other than production out of the QB position. We're going to get far less, although we should definitely get more out of the run game.
What do you mean "no matter how you slice it". I just gave you two most popular stats that measure overall QB performance: QBR plus passer rating, and in both Fields measured higher. That's not no matter how you slice it, that's pretty major slicing right there. Again, a lot of the TDs AR scored we would have ran in anyway. How do you explain being 34th in completion % over expected and lower QBR? I am actually not against Rodgers, I think the guy really wanted to win here and did all he could. He just wasn't good enough anymore. And that's the point: he was below average, probably bottom 3d QB, and was a big part of the reason we only won 5 games. Fields and him were comparable last year and certainly isn't the reason we should not expect progress from coaching. Now @Jets79 brought up a good point: it's not proven that the coaching is better. And this is exactly my point too: AG needs to prove it by winning more with similar roster. If he doesn't, things are not looking great in that department. I think he will though.
We’ll see how McDonald does this season. I hated that pick so much but players can improve. If he does, a 10 sack guy with average run defense is a good player to have
Correct, keeping Rodgers woulda been a disaster. Imagine ruining this talented backfield another year as he changes calls at the line to plays he ran in 2005, no thanks Pittsburgh will be last in the NFL in rushing this season. If he makes it all 17 games anyway
And that further supports my point: the plays he decided to run were not optimal either. That means if you have a competent coach and QB who will run his plays, that's a major plus. Hence, if our coaching is good, we SHOULD be better this year. Also @BroadwayAaron @Jets79 I looked at PFF rating too, Rodgers is 77, Fields 71. They have him better, but marginally. All the major stats that measure overall QB, have them close last year. Fields is higher in some, like QBR and Passer rating, AR in PFF, but all close enough to be comparable. So, no, Fields for Rodgers swap is not a downgrade, where we should not be expecting a better outcome if the coaches are indeed better. Now, if they coaches are not better, that's a different story... I do think we are better though and we will get better results. Not necessarily expecting play-offs right away, which would be nice, but we kept all major pieces, added via draft, and 4-5 win season is unacceptable either. For me the target is 7 to 9 wins. If we stay at 4-5, I suspect not only will we be looking for a new QB, but also new GM and coach soon enough.
Two things: Rodgers started 17 games, Fields started 6. That's a huge sample size disparity which is why I'm not using any metrics from last year. Nor should you. Of course the guy who threw far less passes and was only brought in to run the ball after the first 6 games is going to have a higher QBR and passer rating. The roster isn't similar. It just isn't. You're downgrading from Davante Adams to... Josh Reynolds?! Stephens is a probably downgrade from Reed. The DL was bad and got worse. TE is still a massive question mark and we're relying on a rookie to make it not one. The only area I can see an improvement is OL and by osmosis, the run game. To act like Saleh and Glenn are on even playing fields is crazy to me.
