Fields QBR even from a year before was higher than Rodgers' last year. He just wasn't as great and comparable to Fields. So, from the QB perspective, I simply do not see a downgrade. Even if you do not like Fields, all major QB measures from last year and even QBR from before point to Rodgers being a shell of his former self who is now comparable at least to Fields. Adams agreed was a big loss, but all the others... TE sucked last year. I like Mason Taylor even as a rookie more than what we had. Stephens looked great in camp, and DL is not worse, we haven't lost anyone of note there and JJ should be back plus McD a year older. Also what stopped AG and Mooge from getting Clowney or someone in the 3d round where we drafted a slow corner? They decided to beef up corner instead, and that was the choice they made. If DL is worse with same players, it's on them. OL should be improved too. Kicker should be MUCH better. Adams did help win 3 games last year out of 11, but losing him not enough for me to say I am expecting 4-5 wins now. It does not help Fields much, but still. We won 3 of 11 with him, and I expect good coaches to win more than 5 in a year with similar roster.
We just completely disagree on the ground level of the argument so I don't think there's nothing left to do but agree to disagree.
Yeah, I’m seeing it this way as well…if you look at position groups year to year, I think we got better at RB even if only because I think we’ll run more and Hall will get back to form, and I think we got better at OL, because I’m counting on Olu playing the whole year and I think Membou will be as good if not better than an aging Moses. So I feel good about those groups. I think LB is pretty much the same two guys. Other than that, I think we got worse at receivers overall, no two ways about that…and that is also relying on Mason Taylor being pretty good at TE, at least as good as Conklin was (which to me was pretty average). I agree we got worse at DB because I do think Reed was better than Stephens but I’m also going to rely a bit on AG being a DB himself so if he’s comfortable with the change then who am I to criticize. I think we are not as good on DL as we were a couple of years ago when we had JJ and Huff and Q etc. I also just flat out disagree with the view that AR isn’t A LOT better than Fields. He just is. You can’t take 6 games and just extrapolate and compare that extrapolated stat to a full year. I’m not buying it. I do agree that keeping AR was not a good option for many reasons with a new coaching staff, especially a rookie one…had we brought in someone like a Sean Payton a couple years ago when he was available, or a McCarthy, then maybe it’s a different story, but once Woody went with a rookie DC coach again, AR made zero sense. But this argument that AR kept getting out of runs in the red zone to pad his stats is a dumb way to look at it I think…the point is to get TDs…I could care less if it’s running or throwing, so to match AR, Fields will have to run/pass for 28 TDs. If he does that, then great. But I’m not going to downgrade AR’s TD count. It’s more than Fields has ever thrown for in a season. So no, Fields is not a better QB than even last year’s AR was. He is a better option for us this year with a rookie HC bringing in a new system, and I’m ok with the move, but I for sure believe that we downgraded at QB. But again, I guess the point is that this is a very different team, and while I would love to see us win a lot of games, my personal opinion is that we will not win many games, and I think we are in the 4-6 range, but to me, that doesn’t necessarily mean that AG is not a good coach, or is not as good as Saleh was. Time will tell on that front.
The reliance on numbers calculated by a formula to justify Fields not being a downgrade from Rodgers kills my desire to be part of the convo.
We missed TDs though because of it. One example was the Rams, where we essentially outplayed them, but Rodgers wanted to pass, and there were many other examples, and we went 4 and out or were trying to pass ALL the time and settled for FG. So no, we didn't always get a TD. We missed TDs, and these we got were mostly passing. But we could have gotten more overall if we tried to balance. There is a stats where we faced some of the least stocked boxes in NFL. Look, you can think it's dumb, but I gave you 3 major overall QB stats, which say they are comparable. All major pieces are the same and we paid them. AR who was below average was not a major piece. We had a draft and free agency and this was not a rebuild at all. We tried to add to the roster. 4-5 wins is simply too low of a bar next year. No matter how you slice it.
PFF does not just use a formula and says they were comparable based on film review. Look, I understand you disagree, but you ignored all major measures both formula based and analytics as well based on viewing done by PFF. Yes, Rodgers threw a lot of TDs. He also had the lowest completion % over expected. He wasn't very good. And we only won 5 games. That's not a high bar to clear.
Rodgers also had 46 seconds to get into FG range against the Colts and failed. He threw the Bills game away single-handedly. He had a 5 minute drive that stalled against the Seahawks to win the game because he tried to throw a highlight touchdown on 4th down. He kept putting Davante Adams in the slot and lovingly stared into his eyes during the pre-snap read during critical third downs and had the balls easily knocked down because they were so telegraphed. He made a lot of losing plays last year that stats can’t quantify.
Also, one more thing, If we don't opt out of runs when it is best, Fields doesn't have to score himself, we can actually use RBs more to score and get more TDs overall. He does not have to equal AR's overall TD number himself. We as a team have to score more TDs with him at the helm, and I think we will. Don't forget, he did lead Pitts to 4-2 record with 20+ points scored. They did not have great offense, and Russ did very similar. Fields is not total garbage and AR was not all that great last year. Hence most evaluations, including QBR and PFF have them as comparable. And when you say the team is very different, aside from Adams (who helped win 3 games total), where else are we worse? We paid all the major players. We added to OL. JJ should be back, McD is expected to be better if we have a good coach. TE IMO should be better. Granted Mason is no Bowers but Conk and Ruckert sucked, which was one of the main points by Bower boys (position of need), who turned out to be right. Mason Taylor even as a rookie is an improvement over Conk or at least comparable. And how many games did we lose because of the kicker? Now we have a good one too, which is an improvement. And what about coaching. Arguably that's the most important factor. Why should we expect only 4-5 wins if coaching is so much better and we won 5 last year, which is a very low bar?
Colts game is definitely another one we should have won and probably Seahawks too. I think because we always had #32 rated QB, Rodgers does look good. And don't take me wrong, I am a fan of Rodgers. I give him credit for good things he did for us - the TDs, etc, but how can we ignore the fact he was the least accurate of all starters over expected as well as other items we mentioned? At the end of the day, while he was not #32, he was still below average and bottom 3d all things considered. Agreed, an upgrade over likes of Zach and Boyle, but so is Fields. And even Zach and Boyle won 7 games. 5 games is a very reasonable bar to clear with the current roster for a good coach, if this is what AG is.
yeah people need to realize this roster is a lot less talented. Still think we can get more than 5 wins though yikes
