If its that f&%king simple, why are you sitting in front of the pc with your pants at the ankles posting on TGG.com instead of GMing an NFL team? Its easy to sound like an expert 4-5 years down the road with the benefit of hindsight...something you excel at. During the 2007 draft there was no issue with Pete Kendall. That only came out in May at mini-camp. I am sure if the FO had even a thought that the chowd head was going to start acting stupid...after they gave him a $5 million bonus...they would have drafted somewhat differently. Of course you would have been the first one whining if Tannenbaum took Grubbs in the first round ~ "What the heck are they doing??? Three 1st Rd picks on o-line in 2 years??? This FO doesn't have a clue!!!"
It does not take an expert to know that trading up in the NFL draft in the first round is a loser move. The Jets have done this 3 times in 6 years and guess what? Well, leaving yourself thin and weak on the line is a surefire way to get the few people with any talent looking hard at their circumstances. Particularly when you held a gun to their head last year and made them renegotiate or get cut. I was going to link my posts on the draft but they all basically list Grubb and Blalock as in the group of the five best available players on the 25 so what's the point? I just wanted the Jets to keep their picks and take the best available player at each pick. Instead they had a typical Bradway fantasy draft.
Well, it's not a "loser move" 100% of the time. Unfortunately (well, really fortunately), I don't have the time to analyze all move-ups to determine the percentage of times it works. But to see a team trade up in the 1st round and then say, "That's a loser move" would be silly. It all depends on the players. In 2001 I wanted the Jets to stay at 19 and draft Chad Johnson. They decided to trade up for Moss who I knew would be a good punt returner, but I was not particularly enthused about him playing from scrimmage. Robertson was indeed an impact player at Kentucky. You have already proclaimed Spencer, Staley, and Grubbs to be better players than Revis. Wow. Oh, and in the spirit of this thread ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Teams that have moved up in the first round since 1998 (a decade now) have generally fared very poorly in the process. Moving up into the top five has been an unmitigated disaster as witnessed by San Diego (Ryan Leaf), New Orleans (Ricky Williams instead of an entire draft), Atlanta (Michael Vick w/LaDainian Tomlinson going the other way in a package), The Giants (Eli Manning instead of Philip Rivers plus Shawn Merriman) and the Jets (D-Rob instead of Ty Warren, Rex Grossman - would have probably been Eric Steinbach given the Jets needs that season and a 4th round pick.) There have been many other examples of teams trading up and losing value and very few of teams gaining value when they moved up. The NFL is a league governed by uncertainty. There are almost no sure things and even when you get one they could go out to a career-ending injury at any moment. In an environment governed by uncertainty the successful teams preserve their options and avoid gambling except where absolutely necessary. The Jets take unnecessary gambles in the draft all the time and that's why our depth is so poor and we have trouble against strong teams. He really wasn't. He didn't sack very many people and Kentuckys run defense was always mediocre while he sat in the middle of it, just as the Jets run D has been mediocre except for 2004. Robertson was projected as a 3rd or 4th round pick prior to the 2002 season and had worked his way up to middle of the 2nd by the time of the combine. How he wound up as a top 4 pick is completely unfathomable. He was not Walter Payton playing at Alcorn State and putting up insane numbers. He was a good defensive tackle at the college level, not a star, and had no prospects of becoming a star at the pro level unless lightning struck. Really nice misevaluation of what I said. What I said, and I'll state it clearly here so that nobody else can misevaluate the way that you did, was that the Jets should have stayed at 25 and taken the best available player. What I said was that trading up for Revis was a mistake because he did not have the kind of value that warranted a trade-up, if anybody does - which I do not believe. You twisted that into me saying that those guys were better than Revis. That's your misreading, not what I said. But I will say that one of those guys plus Ryan Kalil and the flop back of the late picks is definitely worth more to the Jets than Revis is. As we are discovering in camp this year.
It does seem that trading up in the 1st round doesn't work out more than it does works out. I just didn't like how you wrote, "...trading up in the NFL draft in the first round is a loser move." The way you worded it indicates you feel it is wrong 100% of the time. As for the Revis thing, I don't like talking value after a draft is over. You did write that the Jets should have stayed at 25 because Spencer, Staley, and Grubbs were there. One would assume that to be because each one of them is better than Revis. Please can the value talk.
Trading up is just another form of reaching for value that is not there. There's no difference between trading a 1st and a 2nd round pick to get a 1st round player and just taking a player 10 picks too early. In both cases you have handed away value that you cannot easily recoup. BTW, I think Revis is a better player individually than any of the guys I thought would be there on 25 with the possible exception of Spencer. I just have to reiterate that Ben Grubbs and Ryan Kalil would have given the Jets a chance to be a good team this year and Revis does not. In this case Revis MUST work out at a high level for the Jets just to break even on the deal. if he's another D-Rob level decent player but not a star then it's a total disaster.
Just to let you know that Miami is in the same situation as the Jets concerning their OL and they get to pick before we do.
I'm just not a fan of the whole "value" phenomenon. You either acquire good players and coach them good or you don't. (Note: I'm not actually disagreeing with what you wrote above. I just simply am not "value" crazed.) Agreed on Revis. He obviously has to be a star for the trade to have been a success.
Why do they get to pick before the Jets? Are they not allowed to have a better record than the Jets in 2007?
If the Jets are serious about being good this season, they trade a 2nd rounder for a big time available guard. Some of you just want to have the chance to overrate people on draft day, at the expense of having good seasons with NFL PLAYERS, not prospects. Jets focus on some waiver pickup and they end up mediocre.
At this point I'd take just about anyone. This entire season could be a disaster if the oline is not fixed, and that's not a pesimistic point of view that's a REALISTIC one.
D'Brickashaw Ferguson will be remembered as another Tony Mandarich. We could have traded down, got an additional high pick, and snatched Leinart or Cutler. Nice move, Tannenbaum.
Have a little patience guys, our offensive line did a heck of a job pass blocking as the season went on. We still could not run block at all. Neither Kendall or Moore was able to move anyone. After one crappy game it's so typical for people to jump off a cliff. Just chill out and wait and see.
Because most of us were discussing recent drafts and because many people here are getting crazy and think this season will be awful for the Jets, your comment made me think you were talking about the 2008 draft. I did not know you were talking about waivers. Now that I know what you meant, I'm not sure Vincent would be on waivers. If he gets cut, any team may be free to sign him, but I truly am not sure. I used to understand waivers better about 5 years ago when I had to study the CBA. I lost that knowledge.
" . . . Oh, and in the spirit of this thread ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ " that's the SPIRIT !
~~~~~some more love for Kelly. Oh, and I would be up to trading a 3rd or 4th rounder for a vet guard. This team has so many SOLID components. We can take a small step back this season, but no need to build a mentality of losing for this young core. I understand letting Kendall walk. It was not handled well, but done is gone. We move on. Now if the FO does NOT make a move to address the lack of OL depth with some help, I assume they will be willing to deal with the backlash from the fans and media. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Fitz
