Tebow trade cost us a 4th and Hill trade-up cost us a 5th and a 7th. It was like the strategy of the Bradway-Tannenbaum era suddenly coalesced in a way that the negative effects just couldn't be ignored. Any GM anywhere who suddenly gets all giddy over a mid second round pick is ignoring the fact that his peers have mostly passed on the player twice. Good prospect yes, but no sure thing. Any GM who consistently trades up to do that should be fired. Nobody is that good at divining talent. That 5th round pick was a G or a S or a LB or another WR, all positions the Jets desperately needed young depth at and instead it wound up packed into another trade for a player who would not prove out. The 7th was probably nothing but now and then you find a good player there. Trading up in the draft should be a once in a decade type thing. The moment when you know the value is there and you have to make the trade. When you do that every year instead you are just pissing on the process and you'd better be going deep in the playoffs every year if you think you're good enough to do that.
Bingo. 2nd round is very important to hit. Some prospects like a Keenan Allan or Eddie Lacy for instance fall because of health reasons despite having 1st round talent....it is good to be in a spot to catch those players fall and get a "steal". Trading up for a player for a few spots is so silly though. Was Stephen Hill THAT much of an upgrade over Reuben Randle or Alshon Jeffery heading into the drafting to give away 2 picks to move up FOUR FING SPOTS. Let Chicago take Stephen Hill, take Jeffery or Randle and move on. Call their bluff. It is for a WR. You should never trade up for something if the end result is huge picks lost. Not one player is ever worth it for giving up ___ amount of picks. Not even a franchise QB though I know it is very debatable. You can find talent anywhere in the draft. It is just easier to do so with high pick(s). I am fine with trades up, I liked the Sanchez one even though we lost a 2nd round pick since I was Anti-Freeman heading into that draft. It is just when you do it almost every year, it starts to add up and destroy the foundation you have if and when you sustain injuries.
I just don't like trade ups. Using the trade value chart as an indicator we find that a mid second round player is worth about 400 value. The player picked 5 picks behind him is worth 350 and a mid 5th round pick is worth about 33. However it's not the players that are worth 400, 350 and 33. It's the opportunity to choose that is valued at those numbers. So in theory you have 14% more value when you get to pick the 50th player over the 55th. That's total bullshit. There is no way that the 50th player in a draft is actually worth 14% more than the 55th, EVEN if the 50th player is actually 5 slots better than the 55th. That's just not how NFL value works as it translates onto the field. And often the 50th player is not better than the 55th at all because the differences in talent level just aren't that great and almost nobody is good enough at scouting to sort between 50, 51, 52, 53 and 54 consistently anyway. Pick well at your spot and you are ahead of the game. Start giving up value left and right because you think you are smarter than everybody else is a recipe for failure. It doesn't even matter if you are right half the time. You still miss out on a lot of value the other half. So now you get to the back end of the equation and you've given up a shot at a player just for the ability to imperfectly pick between a narrow group of similar value prospects much higher up in the draft. That 5th round player is valued at 33 and again it's the opportunity to pick him that is valued that way not the player himself. The guy taken on the 50 may actually be a significant multiple more valuable when you look at the end results of careers as the guy taken on the 146 but there is no way he's 12x as valuable based on the end results. It's the opportunity to pick at that slot that is valued so low, not the players that result from the pick. So giving up a chance at a player on the 146 can't be justified in the context of making the 55 pick instead of the 50. You're just going to lose on that deal most of the time because even if the guy you pick proves out the guy taken on the 55 might as well and if the guy on the 146 proves out well then you're behind the 8-ball on the deal and unlikely to ever catch up. If your guy doesn't prove out then you're just screwed.
Bingo. 100% correct. At some point this whole discussion should merit a new thread, not associated with Geno versus Sanchez, or who sucked the least or most, but rather a thoughtful expectation as to what to do about selecting and grooming the future QB for the NY Jets for 2014. What would it take between now and the end of the season to determine if Geno has enough to be considered our starter in 2014? If there is doubt then what? Damned everything else, forget the constant fire Rex and the revolving door of coaches, GMs and the like. The first and most important move of all is to find the QB through the draft with the demonstrated potential to be THE GUY and allow him time to develop before you throw him to the fire. Geno was not remotely ready, and one would hope the brass kind of knew that, unfortunately he is now squarely between a rock and a hard spot. If there is no major step forward from Geno soon, then the draft will take a totally different path. Maybe even packaging draft picks, move up and go after the top guy in the draft. Hopefully with the remaining set of picks and free agency give the offense some weapons to make a reasonable QB successful. If Geno closes the season without appreciable improvements, this team must re prioritize the Draft for a QB. In any case they should also trade for an established and somewhat dependable back up QB that can take the reigns while the rookies develop. We can not, should not and hopefully will not put in another rookie as a starter on day one without first the benefit of demonstrating that he is capable to at least manage the game. I suspect our GM rolled the dice on Geno expecting more than the pre draft evaluation indicated. Nothing wrong with that, but the risk worth taking has not paid off and now he might be facing even a harder challenge. If Geno is not the guy....then what?
LOL! You are right, I was wrong. The Jags ARE a -182 in point differential, if that's even possible for a team to be that bad. And I thought the jets had problems. OK, the jets are the second worst in the league in that category. I still don't see how that is a ringing endorsement for Rex. As to your next paragraph you imply that when the jets win, it's because we have Rex...and when they lose, well, "he has a bad team." Yeah.
The problem is that these are actually two totally different issues. Was the 2013 season likely to be a waste. Yes. But did the 2013 DECISIONS have to be a waste? Absolutely not. In fact, it is important for those decisions to be good if 2014 and further to see improvement. That means hiring the right GM, coaches, making he right drafts, etc. Evaluating the decisions made this year based purely on the results so far isn't pretty. Idzik has made some poor choices, although there might be a method to this madness (that's for another thread). The MM hire is difficult to evaluate given what is going on, which plays into your point nicely. Then there are the players themselves. The Reed signing is a classic example where there is no need for long term evaluation because he is a short term fix and he seems to be a complete failure. This is a black mark on Rex for sure and probably the GM as well. Overall, I agree with the OP--there is little to argue with the writer. And as the OP pointed out, the drafting of Richardson only balances so much. He can't play every position, so no matter how good he is some of the other picks need to pan out to some degree. It is early but the signs right now might indicate we got lucky with Richardson. I sincerely hope not, but I have some real reservations about the entire FO and CS. Idzik always seemed like a questionable choice and Rex is an amazing DC masquerading as a HC. frankly, if we could keep him as a DC/assis. HC and bring in a new HC I'd be thrilled. That will never happen.... It can't..... But that is my fantasy.
