The New York Jets were on a roll, winning three straight against the NY Giants, the Washington Redskins, and the Oakland Raiders. It looked like they might have found something and could turn their season around.
Then they got smoked by the Bengals. The only team that seemed like they might actually go 0-16. Cincinnati limited the Jets to just 6 points and Andy Dalton threw for 243 and a touchdown, becoming the Bengals all-time leading passer. But it was the Cincy defense that got the job done, they robbed the Jets of two points with a safety. The Jets, on the other hand, couldn't find their footing. In 10 touches, Bell only rushed for 32 yards. Darnold threw for a respectable 239, but couldn't find a seam to get to the end zone.
So, the game ended in a 22-6 loss. But now Gang Green has the Dolphins to beat up on and get a little bit of revenge for the Miami loss earlier this year. Nitrogen Sports has the Jets as favorites at 5.5 points, which is a bit surprising considering the Fins have won two straight and just beat a legitimate team in the Philadelphia Eagles. I do agree that the Jets should be favored, but I would put that number at a field goal instead of 5.5 or 6.
Here's The Skinny on the Numbers
The season averages for offensive production are darn near equal for both teams. The Jets are slightly better on average putting up 17 points per game. The Fins have produced 16.67. But defensively, the Jets are much better. Miami has allowed 31.42 per game when you add it all up, and the Jets 23.33. But at home in East Rutherford, the New York Jets have allowed just 20.83 (21) points per game.
The Jets also perform a bit better on offense in MetLife, putting up 18.5 points per game, where the Dolphins fall a few tenths of a point to 16.2. So, the Gang has a 2 point offensive advantage and a roughly eight-point defensive advantage, if my math is correct that makes ten. So, 5.5 points is actually a great number to take for the Jets.
But there is the Fitzmagic factor. Can Mr. Harvard solve another complex problem and lead his crummy team to another victory or at least a really close game where they cover the five-and-a-half points? They have been quite good as dogs this season. IN fact, they have covered the point spread as underdogs in six of their last eight. They were the ‘worst team in the league' tanking for Tua. But now that they have won three out of their last five, they can’t be considered the worst team in the NFL. Against the Eagles, Fitzmagic dropped 365 passing yards and three TDs on their defense. So, the Jets are going to have to be on their A-game. They can’t go to sleep on the Dolphins thinking that they’ll have an easy win. Because apparently, the Fins ain’t tankin’ no more.
The New York Jets have been hit or miss. Look at the way the blew out the Raiders as dogs, then followed that up by getting blown out as favorites by perhaps the actual worst team in the league. I have a feeling that they’ll follow that up with a win since the yo-yo deal seems to their MO of late. That said, despite have a statistical advantage of 10 points over the Fins, I think Fitzpatrick has a little bit of magic left in him and he’ll keep this one pretty close.
The Dolphins have covered the number in five of their last seven meetings against the Jets, only fully failing once and getting the push in the other affair. They have also had the Jets number over the last couple of seasons, beating them in six of the last seven meetings. Because of this, I like the Jets to win, but the fins to cover the +5.5. NY wins by three.